I’ve been so certain lately that Oregon would win on Thursday that I decided it was time to back away from all that tasty Kool-Aid that goes down so easy and actually look at Thursday’s game from Boise State’s perspective. I want to know why the Broncos think they can win. I want to know why I shouldn’t just cross into Mexico right now, brave the streets as an American citizen and bet everything I have on Oregon. From what I can tell, it comes down to four things.
- Kellen Moore. I think we can all agree Moore can beat Oregon on his own. His 386 yards and three touchdowns last year in Autzen Stadium absolutely stunned everyone. I can’t think of another redshirt freshman that came into Autzen Stadium and put together the type of day he did. Most guys in his shoes probably would have let a little dribble down their leg as soon as they stepped on the field. A more mature and experienced Kellen Moore playing at home? The Duck defense better be ready.
- Bronco Stadium. I let my feelings be known last week about what I think of Boise State’s home winning streak. I think it’s safe to say if they played a schedule similar to what the Pac-10 faces every year, that streak wouldn’t exist. Still, there’s no ignoring that number. 44 straight wins at home. That’s tied for sixth best all-time. Even if the competition was sub-par, you can’t deny the confidence the Broncos step onto the field with knowing they simply don’t lose at home. There is a comfort factor for Boise that will be sorely lacking for Oregon.
- Oregon’s Unknowns. Ignoring for a moment Boise State’s own question marks, Oregon has enough issues to elicit genuine concern. Is the rebuilt offensive line going to pick up where the 2008 crew left off? Will the talented but untested wide receivers make an impact? Can the secondary and defense as a whole keep up with the constant misdirection Boise will offer up? Until game one is in the book’s we’re all just speculating.
- Cheap Shot Late Hits. Given what happened last year, am I wrong? (I think that makes it 3 straight posts now…I’m not giving up!)
GD Star Rating
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1. Kellen Moore is only as good as his receivers and line. Jeremy Childs and Vinny Perretta, who combined for 193 of Moore’s 386 passing yards (exactly 50%) at Autzen, are gone. They net rushed for 38 yards that game, and that was WITH Ian Johnson. The offensive line is three juniors, a sophmore and a redshirt freshman, three of whom have significant time as starters, and one that didn’t play much at all (and missed the Oregon game). Moore was good last year. He will not be so good this year.
2. Unless they place a giant metallic “44″ in the backfield, the number means nothing. Not only for the reasons you previously stated, but because BSU simply doesn’t have the “gravitas” that a BCS team (and thus it’s home record) might otherwise impart.
3. True enough.
4. Last I checked, Masoli didn’t give up 37 points in last year’s game. Blaming the loss on him being knocked out is absurd.
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Thanks for your thoughts. I’m pretty much with you, but thought one day would suffice where I actually look into Boise’s potential for winning.
Regarding #4, that was just a joke. Kind of. It was clearly a factor, though, just not to the level everyone claims.
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All I have to say is ” GO DUCKS ” Thursday just seems too far away.
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