Oregon Should Win (But I Always Say That)

For two teams having only dipped its toes into the season’s waters, Saturday might as well be considered the big plunge. Utah has struggled with lesser opponents while Oregon put on one of its worst performances of the decade in Boise. The winner gets to put some of the early doubts behind them and move forward with the confidence to meet high expectations.

Of course, the stakes may be higher for Oregon which actually has a loss on its record. Another misstep and it’s 1-2 with highly ranked Cal waiting to make it 1-3. Many are comparing it to 1994 (the birth of football) when the team started 1-2 and lost to Utah at home. I don’t see it. Different era, different teams, different scenarios. This game feels critical if you still harbor hopes for the type of season that results in Rose-filled  holidays (whether that should be your expectation or not is another matter). Sure, win or lose, it’s still 0-0 in the Pac-10, but it’s time to make a statement.

Stopping Utah won’t be easy. This is a team that has, in the last five years, proven itself worthy of competing on a bigger stage than the Mountain West Conference usually provides. One could argue for the inclusion of the Utes as a Pac-10 team. After all, like the Pac, they’re an SEC killer (11-8 this decade SEC, deal with the inferiority however you must). They are also tenants of the nation’s longest winning streak at 16 games. Say what you will about Mountain West Conference competition, but it’s at least as good as the Big East and its top three teams are as good as any.

FOTB's Uni Pick

The Ducks could be getting a huge break if Utah running back Matt Asiata can’t go. He’s been listed this week as questionable with a shoulder injury. That usually means out. And for Oregon, that’s a good thing. At 230 lbs., Asiata has already carried the ball 56 times for 250 yards and is the kind of guy that could wear an unheralded defensive line down as the game goes on.

Still, if he can’t play, Oregon has to deal with Terrance Cain. The junior college transfer quarterback has quickly put up big numbers, albeit against, well, terrible competition. He’s the kind of guy that you think Autzen Stadium will eat up, and the next thing you know, he’s torched your secondary for 300 yards.

The stat that sticks out so far, though, is Utah’s five turnovers while taking the ball from opponents just twice. Oregon has been opportunistic this season grabbing six takeaways and scoring on two of them. Is two games enough to declare those stats the definitive decider? Not a chance, but it’s alarming for Utah, especially playing on the road in a venue as difficult as Autzen Stadium.

Ultimately, it comes down to that which we’ve left alone to this point, Oregon’s offense. It usually does with the Ducks. When they’re clicking, winning is a virtual certainty. When they’re not, the results can be ugly. Ed Dickson figures to be a central figure in Oregon’s game plan and you would imagine Masoli will be used in a variety of ways to open up opportunities in the running game while the offensive line finds its identity. Don’t expect the usual Oregon offense yet, but expect enough progress to knock off Utah and set the stage for next week’s Pac-10 opener.