With 25% of football played and Pac-10 play beginning, I’m going to channel my inner geek (let’s be real, it’s outer, too) and go inside the numbers to weed out some influential factors for the upcoming game. For the three of you that are still reading by the end, thank you for indulging me.
The obvious thing to do right now would be to say Cal is first in total offense, Oregon10th (and 9th in total defense) and there’s your ball game. Do you really believe the Ducks are that bad, though? The stats aren’t telling the whole story in this case.
For instance, Oregon has played Jeff Sagarin’s 4th, 45th, and 66th ranked teams. Cal has matched up against 49th ranked Minnesota, 93rd ranked Eastern Washington (an FCS school) and 98th ranked Maryland.
Offensively, Oregon’s numbers are skewed by a first week debacle and a struggling passing game while the defense has repeatedly been put in difficult situations by special teams and offensive miscues. For example, against Utah, three Ute drives started inside the Ducks’ 25 yard line, yet they yielded only 10 points.
Their red zone defense has already been tested 13 times while Cal has only had to defend near the goal line on four occasions. Oregon has respectably denied opponents any points on 3 of those red zone possessions.
In other words, it’s been an eventful three games for the Ducks and they are clearly better than what some stats are showing.
Still, I believe there are some numbers that are telling and will play a crucial role in the outcome of Saturday’s game.
- Getting off the field, keeping drives going. The defensive weakness so far has been ending drives on 3rd and 4th down plays. They let too many possessions continue. An obvious shortcoming has been passing situations of about six to 10 yards where the defense plays soft and lets receivers sit down in openings across the first down marker. The Ducks rank 7th and 10th in third and fourth down plays respectively while Cal has been highly efficient in converting and keeping drives alive 52% of the time. Conversely, Oregon has been horrible at keeping its drives alive. They have only eight third down conversions all year resulting in a 78% rate of failure to gain a first down when it matters most.
- Crowd Control. Turnover margin and Cal’s rushing game could instantly mitigate Oregon’s home field advantage. While Oregon has been proficient in securing turnovers (8 takeaways), they’ve given it away just as much (8 turnovers). Cal, on the other hand, has a 7 to 1 takeaway ratio on the season. The Bears are also dominate in the rushing game averaging over 250 yards/game and 6 yards/carry with an astounding 15 TDs on the ground. With Oregon’s propensity to get dominated in time of possession, a dominate opposing running game could spell disaster.
- Gotta’ Be Special. Special teams could be an interesting wild card. Cal hasn’t shown much success in the return game. They rank in the bottom half for both kickoff and punt return average and are ninth in kickoff coverage. The only stat Cal ranks well in is net punting. Oregon on the other hand has been very good returning the football. Third downs and turnovers are more important, but if Oregon controls those two elements and has a decided edge in field position throughout the game, the upset could be on.
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I consider myself a geek too – and proud of it
– but geez I don’t like stats. I think this is a game where we have to toss the stats. We need a new Offense to show up and if that happens we can beat the Bears. If the same old O – with all of those poor stats – shows up it will be near impossible to win. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – Masoli is the key to this game. I guess that gets us back to stats. His suck and we can’t win if they don’t get much better on Saturday.
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I love stats. I’m insanely jealous that Chip Kelly has all sorts of cool stats that he won’t give out to anyone. Football needs a moneyball moment. The same old stats every week from the Pac-10 media release are boring. I wish there was something better to look at.
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Thank you for providing fodder for my afternoon nap.
When can we get back to uniform analysis?
thanks.
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True story, I fell asleep five times writing it. And notice how I haven’t mentioned uniforms once this week? Note to future self: always whore yourself out and write about topics that drive traffic. This includes “uniforms,” “Chip Kelly paid a guy” and “LeGarrette Blount punched someone.”
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ITS NOT WHAT YOU WEAR. BUT HOW YOU WEAR IT. GO!!!! DUCKS!!!!
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Hey kid, is this what passes for “stats” at the University of Oregon? Heehee. You guys are stat geniuses!
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It’s what passes for stats when all you have time for and access to is the Pac-10 media release.
But then again, I did take a couple of stat classes at Oregon. Sucked at it.
And I stopped being “kid” long ago. I only behave like one.
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