Who to Root For…The “Make My Head Hurt” Edition
This week’s “Who to Root For” gets a lot trickier, but at least we don’t have to follow that pesky national scene anymore. Who wanted that, anyway? Certainly not this ever-optimistic, pie-in-the-sky blog.
The Ducks ceiling is now the Rose Bowl and they remain in great position even after losing to Stanford. I’m going to warn you right now, though. The best thing you can do is stop reading and just root for Oregon to win three more games. But if not…well, good luck interpreting what remains below. It might help if you brush up on your Rose Bowl Selection Procedures.
Teams Remaining in the Rose Bowl Hunt.
| Team | Record | Remaining Games |
| Oregon | 5-1 | Arizona State, @ Arizona, Oregon State |
| Arizona | 4-1 | @ Cal, Oregon, @ Arizona State @ USC |
| Stanford | 5-2 | @ USC, California, Notre Dame |
| USC | 4-2 | Stanford, UCLA, Arizona |
| Oregon State | 4-2 | Washington, @ Washington State, @ Oregon |
Note: Some other teams remain mathematically alive, but it’s being assumed no team with three league losses will win the conference.
Now, Let’s Really Waste Some Time…
There are endless scenarios that could play out. Below is a chart of possible outcomes that explore Oregon’s Rose Bowl chances if they finish in a three-way tie for first. The assumption is made that all contenders will beat non-contenders on their schedule. In other words, a team like Cal is assumed to lose to both Arizona and Stanford. In this case, Oregon has virtually zero chance of winning any tiebreakers because of their loss to Stanford. The Ducks best hope of getting to the Rose Bowl is to win out. Their next best chance is to have Stanford lose to USC and Cal. This would put Stanford lower in the standings and the they’d be less likely to figure into a complicated three-way tiebreaking scenario (see link for Rose Bowl Selection Procedures).
If you have a life and/or don’t want a headache, you can skip reading below and I’ll deliver the bottom line in less than 15 words: Oregon does not want a three-way tie. They need to win out.
| 1st Place | Key Results | Rose Bowl Goes To… | Why |
| UO | Oregon wins out. | Oregon | |
| UO, USC, UA | Oregon loses only to Arizona and USC wins out. OSU and Stanford finish tied for 4th place. | USC | Each team is 1-1 against each other. Record against 4th place team is used. USC and UA would be 2-0, Oregon 1-1. USC has head-to-head over UA. |
| UO, Stanford, UA | Oregon loses only to Arizona,USC beats Arizona and Stanford wins out. USC and OSU finish tied for 4th place. | Arizona | Oregon is 0-2 against Stanford and Arizona. UA has the head-to-head over Stanford. |
| UO, USC, OSU | Oregon beats Arizona, loses to Oregon State and USC wins out. Stanford and Arizona finish tied for 4th place. | USC | Each team is 1-1 against each other. Record against 4th place team is used. USC is 2-0 while UO and OSU are 1-1. |
| UO, OSU, UA | Oregon loses to Oregon State, USC beats Stanford, Arizona beats USC. USC and Stanford finish tied for 4th place. | Arizona | Each team is 1-1 against each other. Record against 4th place team is used. UA is 2-0 while UO and OSU are 1-1. |
| UO, OSU, Stanford | Oregon loses only to OSU, Stanford wins out, and USC beats Arizona. USC and Arizona finish tied for 4th place. | Oregon State | Oregon is 0-2 against OSU and Stanford. OSU has the head-to-head over Stanford. |
Note: I did not explore any two-way tiebreaking scenarios. The problem with those (involving Oregon) is that they are unlikely to happen without significant upsets.
Note x2: These scenarios all involve Oregon and are not the end of the discussion. If Oregon loses two more games, the door opens in a lot of other directions as well.
Note x3: Moral of the story with three-way tiebreakers? Lose to Washington. That’s the reason Arizona and USC are most likely to win these scenarios.
Note x4: Arizona is the only other team to control its own destiny.
The Week Ahead and Who to Root For
For the most part, you’re safe to root for contending teams to lose. However, in some cases, it may help Oregon’s tiebreaking chances for certain contending teams to win. It’s confusing. Really confusing, actually. Like I said above, the best thing you can do is stop reading, turn on your TV Saturday and root for Oregon. It’s much simpler.
| Matchup | Root For… | Why |
| Stan. @ USC | USC | Simply put, Oregon should root for Stanford to lose to both USC and Cal. The further down in the standings Stanford goes, the better Oregon’s tiebreaking chances are in a three-way tie for first. |
| UW @ OSU | UW | The Beavers have done the heavy lifting and now need only to beat Washington and Washington State to arrive at the Civil War with a 6-2 record. Oregon cares very little if Oregon State is the 4th place team as both Arizona and USC beat the Beavers. This means if OSU was a tiebreaking team in a three-way tie for first, it wouldn’t matter. Therefore, OSU winning does Oregon no good. |
| UCLA @ WSU | Eh, whatever | Yippee! No one cares. |
| ASU @ UO | UO | As usual, draw your own conclusions. |
| UA @ Cal | UA Cal | Given that Oregon has a chance to take the head-to-head from Arizona, it doesn’t necessarily want the Wildcats to lose every game. If UA became the tiebreaking team in a three-way tie for first, Oregon would have some advantages as both Stanford and OSU lost to them. Therefore, we want Arizona to finish ahead of Stanford in the standings. As a result, I’m pulling for UA to beat Cal, lose to USC and Oregon, and finish 6-3 in 4th place.
See the comment section below for why I changed to Cal. There is a two-way tie scenario with USC that works in Oregon’s favor. Thanks for the assist sx1080 and John G. It takes a village to figure this all out. |
Great post. Thanks for putting in the work on this. This is shaping up way too much like 2000. Time to win some football games.
Terrific post! Put things into very, very clear focus. No excuses now.
Hard to believe that we are doing all this sweating and Oregon is 5-1 in Pac-10 play. That says a lot about the competition in the Pac-10 as well as the higher expectations of Oregon these days. In 1994, we were starting to dance in the streets when we got to 5-1, but of course that was with an 8 game Pac 10 schedule and decently weak Stanford and OSU still to come at the end of that season. This year’s back stretch is just as, or more dangerous than the start of Pac-10 play.
a scenario that still puts us in without winning out (but its a 2 way tiebreaker scenario)…oregon st loses to washington this week and stanford loses to usc this week. we beat both zona schools but fall to oregon st. the winner of usc/zona game will finish with 2 losses like us (everyone else will have 3 or more), but we own tiebreaker over both usc and zona in this scenario.
Maybe I’m missing something…
If Arizona lose this weekend (not taking your advice to root for them). USC wins out, Oregon wins at home but loses at Arizona. That leaves a two way tie for first between USC and Oregon. We hold the tiebreaker because of head-to-head.
I just posted the same.
Pull for Cal, that is huge.
You are both right. However, I noted in the post that my scenarios all assume the contenders beat the non-contenders. In other words, I made the assumption that Arizona would beat Cal and without Jahvid Best, that’s a safe bet.
My error may be in rooting for Arizona this weekend. The scenario you both mention is very plausible if Cal were to win this weekend and I think if I was to rewrite this, I’d go back and say root for Cal.
Nick,
please update your page after each weekend. Its going to be crazy.
Nick, the most important game this weekend is SC to beat Stanford. If that happens Ducks can even lose to ASU, that game becomes immaterial. If Ducks beat UA and OSU they are in despite losing to ASU. But, SC must beat Stanford.
Yeah, we want Stanford to lose both remaining games. USC and Arizona’s biggest tiebreaker advantage in a three-way scenario is that they lost to Washington instead of a team that matters. Hopefully, we aren’t talking next Sunday about how a loss to ASU doesn’t matter, though.
what am I missing:
UA loses to Cal and SC
UO loses to UA beats ASU, OSU
SC wins out ( beating Stanford)
Ducks in Over SC ( both with two loses)
so pull for Cal over UA
Exactly, what game really do you fear the most? Oregon losing at home against OSU? Or traveling to Arizona? Seems simple to me.
true. I am a huge Cal fan this weekend. Cant stand Stoops.
What really sucks is teams like USC can lose to the Dawgs and actually get rewarded in a 3 way tie scenario. Pac-10 should change part of the formula. In the event of a 3 way tie where no team emerges, the next tie breaker shouldn’t be how the 3 teams fared against the next highest finisher in the conference. The next team eliminated should be the one with the worst loss. That would eliminate USC as one of their losses was to UW.
We need UA to beat Cal this weekend and for SC to win out. If we take care of UA and SC does too, they will have 3 losses. Then if the worst possible scenario plays out . . . OS beats us at Autzen, we will own the tiebreaker with UA and SC . . . and best of all, OS would not go to the Rose Bowl after having lost to UA and SC. I could not handle beavs in the Rose Bowl.
I think the reason the tiebreaker seems backwards is because we’re looking at it backwards. It’s not about who has the best or worst loss but which team doesn’t have the best win. if two teams in a three way tie have beaten the number four team, but the other team lost to the number four team those two teams won against better competition. So it’s not about losing to worse competition but about winning against better competition.
Tell you what – and you can chastise me for it all you want – I fear the Beavers. They are certain to be 8-2 coming into Autzen and with a big chip on their shoulders remembering last year. The final game of the year with the Rose Bowl to the winner. Yes, the Beavs frighten the hell out of me.
Make that 6-2 for the Beavers coming into the Civil War.
That’s me exactly!!! That’s why I want us and SC to take care of UA and SC to win out. With a three-way tie – us, OS, and SC, I’d much rather have SC go to the Rose Bowl than the beavs. The next year would be unbearable if they were to punch their ticket to the Rose Bowl via a win at Autzen.