The race for the Rose Bowl is simpler in some ways, more complicated in others. For Oregon, it’s more clear than ever that winning out is the only realistic way to get the conference bid to Pasadena. In that sense, it’s simple. Just root for Oregon and all is well. Of course, a loss opens up a lot of ties and that’s where it gets messy. It might help if you brush up on your Rose Bowl Selection Procedures.
Teams Remaining in the Rose Bowl Hunt.
| Team | Record | Remaining Games |
| Oregon | 6-1 | @ Arizona, Oregon State |
| Stanford | 6-2 | California, Notre Dame |
| Oregon State | 5-2 | @ Washington State, @ Oregon |
| Arizona | 4-2 | Oregon, @ Arizona State, @ USC |
| USC | 4-3 | UCLA, Arizona |
Note: USC got left in the race for the fact they can still win a six-way tie. It would be perfectly typical to see USC pull this one out.
Edit: Just found this link which does a superb job of breaking down the Rose Bowl race for all remaining Pac-10 contenders. Check that out if you have even more time to spare.
So Many Scenarios…
The lesson to be learned for the second straight week is that Oregon needs to win out. There is only one somewhat realistic scenario remaining that allows the Ducks to lose another game. In that scenario, Oregon still finishes alone in first. There is actually only one scenario I can find where Oregon ties for first and still gets the Rose Bowl bid. It involves OSU losing to WSU.
| 1st Place | Key Results | Rose Bowl Goes To… | Why |
| Outright Scenarios | |||
| UO | Oregon wins out. | Oregon | Oregon is the only team to finish 8-1. |
| UO | Oregon loses only to UA, UA does not win out, Cal beats Stanford | Oregon | Oregon is the only team to finish 7-2. |
| UO | Oregon loses only to OSU, UA does not win out, Cal beats Stanford, OSU loses to WSU | Oregon | Oregon is the only team to finish 7-2 |
| Two-Way Tie | |||
| UO, OSU | Oregon loses only to OSU, Stanford loses to Cal | OSU | OSU owns head-to-head. |
| UO, UA | Oregon loses only to UA, Arizona wins out, Stanford loses to Cal | Arizona | UA owns head-to-head. |
| UO, Stanford | Oregon loses only to UA, Arizona does not win out, Stanford beats Cal | Stanford | Stanford owns head-to-head. |
| UO, UA | Oregon loses only to OSU, Arizona beats USC and ASU, OSU loses to WSU | Oregon | UO owns head-to-head. |
| Three-Way Tie | |||
| UO, OSU, Stanford | Oregon loses only to OSU, Stanford beats Cal | OSU | OSU is 2-0 against the other two teams. |
| UO, UA, Stanford | Oregon loses only to UA, Arizona wins out, Stanford beats Cal | Arizona | UA is 2-0 against the other two teams. |
| UO, OSU, UA | Oregon loses only to OSU, UA loses to USC, OSU loses to WSU, Stanford loses to Cal | Oregon State | All teams are 1-1 against each other. 4th place teams likely to be USC, Stanford and Cal at 6-3. OSU and UO are 2-1 against 4th place teams. OSU owns head-to-head against UO. |
| Pure Craziness (A Sampling of What Could Happen if OSU loses to WSU) | |||
| UO, OSU, USC, Stanford | Oregon loses out, UA beats only UO, USC wins out, OSU loses to WSU, Stanford loses to Cal | Oregon State | OSU and Stanford are 2-1 against the other three. OSU owns head-to-head against Stanford. |
| UO, Stanford, OSU, UA, USC, Cal | A lot of things happen. | USC | USC, UA and OSU are 3-2 against the other five. USC is 2-0 head-to-head vs. UA and OSU. |
| UO, Stanford, OSU, UA, Cal | A lot of things happen and SC loses to UA | Arizona | UA and OSU are 3-1 against the other four. UA owns head-to-head against OSU. |
| UO, Stanford, OSU, USC, Cal | A lot of things happen, SC beats UA | Oregon State | OSU is 3-1 against the other 4. The others are all 2-2. |
Note: No, WSU is not going to beat OSU this weekend and you can remove about half the scenarios on this chart as a result.
Note x2: These scenarios all involve Oregon and are not the end of the discussion. If Oregon loses out, a number of other combinations not involving the Ducks will play out.
Note x3: Arizona, despite the loss, still controls its own destiny.
The Week Ahead and Who to Root For
This isn’t hard. Pour yourself a beverage, root for the contenders to lose, pull for Oregon to win and everything will be oh so lovely.
| Matchup | Root For… | Why |
| OSU @ WSU | WSU | A few more possibilities open up for Oregon if WSU beats OSU. Don’t take this to Vegas, though. |
| ASU @ UCLA | Doesn’t matter | Neither team is in the race and neither team will be a factor in a tie-breaker. |
| Cal @ Stan. | Cal | In the most likely scenario that allows Oregon another loss, Stanford needs to lose this game. |
| UO @ UA | UO | Unless, of course, your heart belongs to another. |
| USC and UW have a bye |
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Arizona and OSU are switched in your first table.
But thanks for working all of this out. I would do it too, but now I leave all the mental anguish to you.
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Also in the 2nd row of the 2nd table, wouldn’t OSU also have two losses but Oregon would have the head-to-head?
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oops… no I’m wrong about that last post. OSU would have 3 losses.
Carry on… I defer to better minds.
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Haha, thanks for paying attention, though. I like to think I was careful and thought everything through, but there’s a lot of possibilities that go in a lot of different directions.
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Thanks for doing this Nick. The charts make me dizzy.
I have another perspective that may not be popular here. If the Ducks can’t win at least one tough game on the road then they don’t deserve to go to the Rose Bowl. So far we do not have a quality win on the road.
We really need to beat the Wildcats.
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Just another minor nit. I see you switched Arizona with OSU in your standings chart but now you need to fix their records. UA is 4-2 and OSU is 5-2.
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Thanks. My brother who went to Oregon State just texted me the same info. Said I’m losing credibility. He sounds sensitive.
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you need to switch osu and az in your first chart. get it right son!
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Happy? We all know that’s where you’re headed anyway.
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you have too much time on your hands.
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I rarely sleep.
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so while your not sleeping could you take a moment and route for the DUCKS they have a game in the Desert this weekend.
GO!!!!!!!!! DUCKS!!!!!!!!!
your right ducks need to win out.
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I know the man rarely sleeps. You Rock, Nick.
Go!!!!!!!! Ducks!!!!!!!!!
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I wasted an hour or two breaking down these scenarios the other night, too. Agree with you that a WSU victory over the Beavers is impossible, so discarding those scenarios I conclude there is, as of November 16, 2009, a 34.4% chance of Oregon representing the Pac 10 in the Rose Bowl. I’m assuming that the key games (Oregon/OSU, Oregon/Arizona, Arizona/USC, Arizona/ASU, and Cal/Stanford) all break down 50/50. If you shade those percentages based on actual odds of winning, it might make Oregon’s chances slightly better.
A 34.4% chance isn’t great, but it’s a better chance than anybody else has at this point (even the Beavers, if I’ve figured it out right).
Thanks for those classes about probability, Professor Dyer!
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