Comments on: Who to Root For…The "More Scenarios Than Necessary" Edition

By: brandx

brandx — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 04:35:37 +0000

I wasted an hour or two breaking down these scenarios the other night, too. Agree with you that a WSU victory over the Beavers is impossible, so discarding those scenarios I conclude there is, as of November 16, 2009, a 34.4% chance of Oregon representing the Pac 10 in the Rose Bowl. I’m assuming that the key games (Oregon/OSU, Oregon/Arizona, Arizona/USC, Arizona/ASU, and Cal/Stanford) all break down 50/50. If you shade those percentages based on actual odds of winning, it might make Oregon’s chances slightly better.

A 34.4% chance isn’t great, but it’s a better chance than anybody else has at this point (even the Beavers, if I’ve figured it out right).

Thanks for those classes about probability, Professor Dyer!

By: stachman

stachman — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 03:09:48 +0000

I know the man rarely sleeps. You Rock, Nick.
Go!!!!!!!! Ducks!!!!!!!!!

By: stachman

stachman — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 02:11:50 +0000

so while your not sleeping could you take a moment and route for the DUCKS they have a game in the Desert this weekend.
GO!!!!!!!!! DUCKS!!!!!!!!!
your right ducks need to win out.

By: Nick, Off The Pond

Nick, Off The Pond — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 01:17:19 +0000

I rarely sleep.

By: andy

andy — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 01:07:34 +0000

you have too much time on your hands.

By: Nick, Off The Pond

Nick, Off The Pond — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 00:18:22 +0000

Happy? We all know that’s where you’re headed anyway.

By: osully

osully — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 00:14:17 +0000

you need to switch osu and az in your first chart. get it right son!

By: Nick, Off The Pond

Nick, Off The Pond — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 21:31:15 +0000

Thanks. My brother who went to Oregon State just texted me the same info. Said I’m losing credibility. He sounds sensitive.

By: chileduck

chileduck — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 21:20:34 +0000

Just another minor nit. I see you switched Arizona with OSU in your standings chart but now you need to fix their records. UA is 4-2 and OSU is 5-2.

By: Nautiduck

Nautiduck — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 21:10:02 +0000

Thanks for doing this Nick. The charts make me dizzy. I have another perspective that may not be popular here. If the Ducks can’t win at least one tough game on the road then they don’t deserve to go to the Rose Bowl. So far we do not have a quality win on the road.

We really need to beat the Wildcats.