Who to Root For
Thanks to a suggestion from NautiDuck in a comment yesterday, I’m starting an occasional feature to keep track of who to root for every week. Currently, there are two things in play for Oregon: the Rose Bowl and the National Title game. Both take place in Pasadena.
With regards to the Rose Bowl race, we can safely ignore mathematically eliminated UCLA and Washington State. Both teams are currently at 0-5 in conference play and just waiting to play each other to figure out once and for all who is worse.
Let’s also remove Washington and Arizona State, two teams that could technically finish ahead of Oregon but only if the Ducks’ quarterback somehow became injured for the season leading to a slew of losses. It’s just such an unlikely scenario. Oh wait….
That leaves us with the teams below. There is actually a significant amount of work left for Oregon given that it hasn’t played three of these teams.
| Team | Record | Head-to-Head |
| Arizona | 3-1 | - |
| Stanford | 4-2 | - |
| USC | 3-2 | W, 47-20 |
| California | 3-2 | W, 35 42-3 (FIXED) |
| Oregon State | 3-2 | - |
At 5-0 and as the only undefeated team, Oregon is the ruler of its destiny. As such, the take on who to root for this week is all about the national title picture. Sure, we could all pull for teams like USC and UA to lose, but it puts a ceiling on Oregon’s season that we don’t yet need. Perhaps after this weekend, I’ll get more into tie-breaker scenarios. It’s just too convoluted for that right now.
| Matchup | Root For… | Why |
| UO @ Stan. | Oregon | Draw your own conclusions |
| WSU @ UA | Arizona | What you’re really rooting for here is to have the Ducks face a highly ranked 7-2 Wildcat team on the road. A win under that scenario would bolster Oregon’s national credentials. |
| UW @ UCLA | UCLA | Officially eliminates the Huskies. Well, I suppose there is a bizarre tiebreaker scenario that could keep them alive, but stuff like that only happens in the ACC. |
| OSU @ Cal | OSU | This game unofficially eliminates one or the other from Rose Bowl consideration. Ultimately, there are two reasons to root for Oregon State. (1) Oregon has the head-to-head advantage over Cal and (2) If OSU wins out to get to 8-3, the Ducks would probably be playing their sixth game against a ranked team. With the game on ESPN, it would be one final chance to make an important impression if the national title game is still in play. |
| USC @ ASU | USC | Arizona State is mostly cooked. If they beat USC, that would fry the Trojans, too, and like Arizona and OSU above, that’s great if you want the easiest path to the Rose Bowl. However, seeing as how the Ducks are in control, it would help Oregon’s national case to see the Trojans finish the season 10-2. |
In chasing faint hopes of a national title game appearance, there’s very little guesswork in what to cheer for. There are only two games here that are open to interpretation.
| Matchup | Root For… | Why/Comment |
| Vanderbilt @ #1 Florida |
Vanderbilt | At least Urban Meyer knows how to discipline his players. |
| UCF @ #2 Texas | UCF | Texas’ schedule is practically on par with Boise State. Pathetic. |
| #9 LSU @ #3 Alabama |
LSU | LSU has one loss to Florida. One of these two teams will likely play the Gators in the SEC title game. LSU winning here and then winning a rematch in Atlanta against Florida ensures all three teams have a loss forcing voters to make a decision. While it’s likely the SEC gets one of these teams regardless, at least there’s a chance with a loss on the books for every team. |
| Northwestern @ #4 Iowa |
Northwestern | The Hawkeyes are on their way to being the worst undefeated team in the history of football. |
| UConn @ #5 Cincinnati |
UConn | Oregon State did the Ducks no favors by losing to the Bearcats at home. |
| #6 TCU @ San Diego State |
San Diego State | I feel like I should skip Palo Alto and head down to Qualcomm this weekend and cheer like hell for the Aztecs. |
| #7 Boise St. @ Louisiana Tech |
Boise State | I’d rather put Oregon’s 11-1 body of work up against that of 12-0 Boise and let the chips fall as they may. |
With so many AP voters stuck on the archaic thought that even though Boise State plays all but one high school team, they should be ahead of us because the beat us, we really need Boise State to drop one or even two games. It wont hurt the Ducks at all because of our schedule. Especially if the teams we still have to play in the PAC-10 keep winning and get ranked, like you mentioned.
I’m going with the theory that if we stand at the end of the season with wins over Arizona, USC, Utah, Cal and OSU, the majority of voters will recognize that accomplishment above the results of the first game of the season. Of course, it only matters if a slew of undefeated teams lose ahead of Oregon.
Fine analysis but I have to admit that I am completely focused on the Rose Bowl. I am rooting for WSU, CAL and ASU. The scenarios that improve our chances for the NC game put us in greater peril for the Rose Bowl. Plus, I’m not convinced that having our primary PAC-10 opponents do well will make a difference. Like you, I think we will only move up in the BCS if the teams in front of us lose. If they lose, and we win, then we move up. It wont matter how good the teams are that we beat. For proof look at BSU. Strength of schedule, alas, does not seem to really count for much.
What got into me??? Must not think of the Rose Bowl. Must not think of the NC. Must only think of Stanford. Forgive me Chip.
Every game is a season. One game at a time. Focus. Win.
I knew I could trap you. I have a feeling the second national title spot is going to come down to a one loss team. I think only Boise and Texas will be undefeated and they won’t put the Broncos in that game with the schedule they played. Maybe voters will exclude us because of the Boise factor, but the only way we can make the argument is to have the best resume possible.
This stuff is giving me a headache.
Sorry Nautiduck, your stuck in the whirlpool of analysis.
while the Fitpit and myself are standing in line at the Stanford staduim waiting for the doors to open and get this game on the road.
Damn its a long wait. GO!!!!!!!!! DUCKS!!!!!!!!!
Where did the seven point deduction from the Cal game come from?
I honestly have no idea. Thanks for catching that.
Is it still considered a line even though your the only one in it?
I expect a lot of LOUD support from you Stachman!!
And don’t give up your spot in line!
A couple of thoughts:
1. Having read the comments John Hunt collected from AP voters, we will never get above BSU even if we obliterate the remaining competition and they squeak by in one point laughers the rest of their games. The inability of them to look beyond the one game is staggering.
2. Not so sure we shouldn’t be rooting for Cal this week. They are already ranked with only two losses. If they win out, we will have smashed a 10-win team that will end up ranked in the low teens (or potentially higher). If OSU wins out, they will climb into the polls, but already have three losses. No matter how well they are playing now, Cal is more on the voters minds because they were thought to be contenders this year. I say, “go Bears!”
Thanks Nautiduck, we need all the suport we can get here. Cheryl and I have stared into the eyes of the beast [stanford] and let me tell you the beast is not that beastly. the DUCKS are a sure bet on this game. And best of all this line is getting shorter. or at least I think someone may comming along at any time and open up this damn gate. GO!!!!!!!! DUCKS!!!!!!!!