Through the first half of the season, there was much talk of Oregon’s improved defense. They literally dominated teams by forcing turnovers, stoutly defending their end zone from intrusion and even at times scoring points of its own.

And then the last four games happened.

Opponents scored 51, 21, 41 and 33 points against a unit that had previously not given up more than 24 points in any one game. And that 24 included a defensive touchdown and a 19 yard drive following a turnover.

Through its first eight games, the Ducks came up with 20 turnovers. In the last four, Oregon forced its opponents to give it back just four times.

Competition has something to do with that. Outside of Boise State who plays against terrible competition, three of Oregon’s final four opponents also happened to be the top three offenses it faced all year. These were elite offenses that all averaged at least 29.7 points and over 400 yards per game.

With the exception of Toby Gerhart, it wasn’t the run defense that let down. In fact, Oregon held opponent’s rushing attacks significantly below their season averages (again, Gerhart excepted). The pass defense, however, slipped against the likes of Nick Foles, Sean Canfield and Andrew Luck. Foles and Canfield led the Pac-10 in passing this season.

Why is this significant? Ohio State is a decidedly run-oriented offense and averages almost 40 yards more per game on the ground than through the air. Terrell Pryor has been handcuffed and is nowhere near the threat throwing the ball compared to guys like Canfield and Foles.

The chart above would seem to indicate Oregon struggled only against the conference’s top three offenses which happen to be well-balanced units. The end of season slide seems to be more about quality of opposition than anything else. Is it an elite defense? No. But the Ducks have a lot of team speed and aren’t going up against an offensive juggernaut. One could easily see them control the Buckeyes much the way they did most of the schedule.

Throughout Nick Allioti’s history, his defenses have been especially good when they are able to focus on the run and force the opposition to pass. Can Ohio State win the game passing the ball? Probably not. Will they be able to move the ball through the air enough to keep Oregon on its heels? That carries a higher likelihood and could be a key to the game.

If Oregon can control what has become a formidable Ohio State rushing attack, and the Buckeyes can’t establish a passing game, Oregon’s “weaker” side of the ball may end up being the difference.

The blog is making budget cuts this week and streamlining its efforts into one, efficient post.  Call it a corporate reorganization. As such, the normal Oregon-centric preview post has been downsized into the Pac-10 Picks to create more synergy.

After a 3-2 effort last week, the deliverables weren’t good enough. It was clear the blog was spread too thin and needed to make its efforts more dynamic. Without a doubt, the user experience has been enhanced with this innovative move into a result-driven realignment.

Last Week: 3-2
Season: 44-15

Stanford @ USC
Some will have you believe that the Trojans are cracking and the dynasty is about to come crashing down. Such reports are premature. The Trojans finish the season with three straight at the Dump. Huh? It’s called the Memorial Coliseum? I thought they played at a dump. I’ll be damned. I mean, give them credit, they’ve won 46 of 47 there, but I really thought it was a dump (yep, still bitter about 2006).

The Pick…USC

Washington @ Oregon State
The Civil War looms. The Beavers have only to get through a tour of the college football wasteland that is the state of Washington to bring possible Rose Bowl hopes into the game. The Beavers win – and you can scribble the W in pen right now – will make it 12 in a row for the state of Oregon against the “preeminent” program of the Northwest.

The Pick…Oregon State

UCLA @ Washington State
This is the dumbest pick I’ve made all year. I mean, who picks Washington State for anything? This is such a bad team. But this is also a rallying cry for the Cougars to nail down a Pac-10 win. The game day high in Pullman is going to be 34. UCLA needs this win for bowl eligibility so maybe they fight through it, but I feel like picking an upset and where better to do it than in the Pac-10’s most irrelevant game of the year?

The Pick…Washington State

Arizona @ California
Hopeful Duck fans aside, I don’t think Cal can stay any closer than two touchdowns. One team is surging with confidence after years of bad football. The other just can’t seem to get things to go their way this season. And I don’t mind Arizona winning. In fact, I kind of hope they do. it would set up a huge showdown between ranked teams and it’s just more fun that way. Besides, if Oregon wants the Rose Bowl, it needs to win their games and not rely on complicated tiebreaking scenarios (not that this blog doesn’t enjoy wasting time on such things).

FOTB Pick

The Pick…Arizona

Arizona State @ Oregon
Oregon gets their third straight freshman quarterback. It seems safe to say that Brock Osweiler won’t be as dangerous as Andrew Luck given ASU’s offensive ineptitude this year. And as for the Sun Devils “stout” run defense, the last time a team surrendering fewer than 90 yards per game on the ground came to Autzen, they got burned for almost 400. Given that it’s an entirely different team and scenario, that might seem like a meaningless line, but it would count as expert analysis if my name was Jon Wilner.

The Pick…Oregon

Basketball Bonus Pick: Winston-Salem State @ Oregon
The official “Save Ernie Kent’s Job” tour begins with non-conference creampuff number 1.

The Pick…Oregon

This week’s prediction post takes on a different approach after having read Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News make his case for Stanford. While applauding his gumption for sticking his neck out in defense of the home town team, I found myself agreeing with, well, none of it.

As such, I have to offer my counter. Wilner’s 10 reasons the Cardinal will win are summarized to keep this thing from turning into a novella.

10. Wilner says: Stanford plays disciplined defense which will make up for a disadvantage in speed.
OTP says: The Cardinal are 7th against the run in the Pac-10. Before last Saturday, USC was giving up roughly 80 yards a game on the ground. Oregon totaled 392. Discipline or not, the Cardinal aren’t good enough on defense to stop Oregon.

9. Wilner says: Chris Owusu, who has taken three kicks back for touchdowns, is due to break a big return beacause he hasn’t in awhile.
OTP says: Stanford and Oregon are the top two teams in covering kickoffs. I doubt either will break down this week even against stellar returners. And as we’ll see later, Wilner has a penchant for figuring something will happen on the sole basis that it’s due. In that case, I’d like to bet everything I have on black.

8. Wilner says: Stanford ruined Oregon’s big season in 2001.
OTP says: Cute fact and completely irrelevant for a game being played in 2009.

7. Wilner says: The Cardinal believe they can win and almost did a year ago with a gimpy Toby Gerhart and no Andrew Luck.
OTP says: Oh my God! And the Ducks don’t have LeGarrette Blount like they did last year! Okay, give Wilner credit. He’s getting closer to having something to do with 2009. Still pretty irrelevant, though, considering the conditions of that game were terrible.

FOTB Pick

6. Wilner says: Masoli played a clunker in his last game in the Bay Area against California.
OTP says: Yikes! That’s three completely irrelevant points in a row. The Cal game was played in roughly three feet of standing water. Masoli has never played well in rainy conditions. Saturday’s forecast is all sunshine.

5. Wilner says: Only USC has gone undefeated in Pac-10 play this decade so Oregon is due to lose eventually.
OTP says: Perhaps the most irrelevant point of all. Oregon is playing Stanford, not some mystic voodoo that disallows a team from winning all its games.

4. Wilner says: The game is played on grass which will slow Oregon’s speed, but not effect Stanford’s physicality.
OTP says: Maybe. The Ducks have only played one game on grass this year and it was their worst offensive output of the season. It was also without Jeremiah Masoli and LaMichael James was still well over 100 yards. Pretty sure the playing surface won’t mean a thing when Oregon’s at full strength.

3. Wilner says: Stanford’s wine and cheese crowd will have a reverse atmosphere effect and lull the Ducks to sleep.
OTP says: Really? This is the third best reason Stanford wins? There will be plenty of atmosphere courtesy of the thousands of Duck fans expected to attend.

2. Wilner says: It’s good to play teams after they faced USC. Oregon is primed for a letdown. Stanford is rested coming off of a bye.
OTP says: Uh oh, Stanford is outscoring opponents 109-21 under Jim Harbaugh coming off of a bye week.  What? That was against Washington State, San Jose State and Notre Dame? Really, they even lost to 3-9 Notre Dame? Scary. Well, what about teams letting down after playing USC? A quick fact check reveals Oregon is 6-1 this decade following games against the Trojans.

1. Wilner says: Stanford controls the ball with it’s power running game against an undersized Oregon defense. They mix in some play-action passes and the net result is less possession time for Oregon. Stanford will score at will in the second half while the Ducks offense sputters from its lack of rhythm.
OTP says: Ok, if Stanford does win, this is probably how it happens. However, the blog would like to dip into an overused cliche and channel Lee Corso with it’s first “Not so fast my friend!” of the season. Oregon is two seconds from being in last place for time of possession. You can go on long drives all you want. It takes IBM’s Roadrunner supercomputer more time to run 2+2 than it does for the Ducks to score (too geeky? Yeah, thought so). As for wearing Oregon down in the second half, well Mr. Wilner, it hasn’t happened yet, so it’s bound to happen now. Right?