Ten years ago, Oregon football was in a much different place. And so was I.

Just an 18 year old freshman that couldn’t tell Agate from University, I wandered into Autzen Stadium on the night of September 25, just days after arriving on campus. I’d been to a game before when I was about six, but with little memory of the event. Even if I could remember that day, it’s safe to say it was nothing like this.

This was a night game and this was USC.

I’d arrived at the game by way of a standing room only ticket having not been able to secure one of the student variety. Even though I’d been a fan as a kid, at this moment, standing at the top of the student section for the first time, I felt out of place. It was like I was in a room with 45,000 people that knew something I didn’t.

What they knew was what I was about to discover. Oregon football is fun.

My immersion took only a full game and three overtimes. The intoxication that had me at hello involved a roller coaster of sinking feelings and utter joy that would eventually be capped by complete euphoria. On that night, the leg of a backup kicker gave Oregon a 33-30 win and, me, an addiction.

It was an unforgettable moment in the middle of a historical run that saw Oregon increase its win total every season from 1997 to 2001. Included were some monumental achievements including the school’s first ever 10 win season. Oregon’s journey would eventually reach a  remarkable crescendo when it finished number two in the country after winning the 2002 Fiesta Bowl. By the end, a program had been forever changed.

The expectations going forward would be different (and so would the uniforms). The stadium would get bigger, the budget more bloated, the scrutiny more intense and the experience just a little less organic.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s always been exciting and I relish every advancement the program makes. Still, it’s hard to recapture those first moments you experience something, those moments before you realize what it is you’re really doing.

If all of the preceding seems dramatic, just know it’s simply to say, it feels like we’re there again, like it’s 1999 and we’re about to take in something special for the first time.

Maybe it’s the Halloween setting or perhaps it’s the magnitude of what’s at stake as the nation’s attention shines on little ol’ Eugene. Certainly, there’s a growing sense that Chip Kelly, the first year head coach, is piloting the beginning stages of Oregon’s next evolutionary step into college football’s elite.

Whatever it is, the excitement is palpable even if you’re experiencing it through a computer 975 miles away. Something special is brewing in Eugene. You know it, I know it and on Saturday, the whole country will know it.

Blackout, anyone?

It’s USC, ESPN and Halloween night. If ever there was a time to pull out all the stops, this is it.

Yet, there’s been no official university announcement of a stadium-wide blackout. For all we know, the team could show up in green and yellow. I know, crazy.

Fans can’t stop discussing it. The UO Duck Store and others are rolling out t-shirts to support the movement for a united fanbase of solid black.

The only way it happens to the fullest, though, is if the university has 60,000 black t-shirts (er, ponchos) waiting at the gates. Throw a Carl’s Jr. and Bi-Mart logo on the back and it’s done.

Otherwise, you’re asking everyone to do some last minute wardrobe enhancement and that’s just not going to happen. That, and Ducks fans are mostly made up of independent, “I’ll wear whatever the hell I want” types so it’s a bit tricky trying to pull off any sort of unity.

Hopefully, it happens, but without university backing, I doubt it will envelope the entire stadium. Besides, what we’re all really holding out hope for is a “steelout.”

Opportunistic capitalism at its finest allows you to have options. Here’s some places you can buy something black.

• UO Duck Store
• ReaperClothes.com
• Ducktees.com
• Saw this on educk.com but not sure how you can buy it
• Football Fanatics for a large selection, but nothing specific to this game

If you know of any other options, feel free to leave a link in the comments.

When USC comes to town on Halloween, they do so with true freshman Matt Barkley at quarterback. Autzen Stadium, Kellen Moore notwithstanding, is unpleasant to newbies.

Through half a season, though, Barkley is being heaped with praise as a guy that plays beyond his years. I suppose one has to be impressed with the early body of work given his inexperience, but can the Trojans really get away with a true freshman at Autzen Stadium in a game as hyped as any in its history?

I don’t think so (cue references to Notre Dame and Ohio State).

Of course, what I think is just an opinion so I went to work manipulating the numbers to back me up.

The first thing we need to look at is how Barkley stacks up relative to the rest of the nation.

What does this tell us?

1. This is a solid quarterback who could become great. He’s one of only 3 freshmen with a top 50 quarterback rating.
2. He passes for a lot of yards for a team that virtually never has to play from behind which indicates the yards are generally meaningful.
3. The high ranking in yards per attempt seems to support my thinking that he throws a good deep ball and will connect on those more frequently than his peers.
4. He has both a low number of TDs and INTs which indicates USC is careful in what they ask him to do.

Okay, with the setup out of the way, let the debunking begin.

When we look at who this body of work has come against, it’s revealing at just how poor the opposing pass defenses have been. Teams have played a minimum of seven games so it’s not like one can say Barkley’s performance is skewing opposing defense’s stats.

Four of the six pass defenses Barkley has faced are ranked 111 or lower in total yards per game. That’s out of 120 teams meaning he’s faced four units that are in the bottom 10 nationally. In other words, Barkley hasn’t just faced bad pass defenses, he’s faced the worst. He’s also only encountered two reputable pass rushes (Cal and Ohio State). In those two games, Barkley had no touchdowns and two interceptions.

Still there were two games against statistically respectable pass defenses. Let’s take a look.

• San Jose State, 41st: The Spartans have the third worst rush defense in the country, so this ranking is likely more a reflection of the fact teams are content to run all game. The low pass efficiency rating would seem to support that. Against San Jose State, Barkley passed for 233 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions.
• Ohio State, 29th: To date, the only quality pass defense USC has faced. Barkley, on the road in a hostile environment went 15-31 for 195 yards with no touchdowns and one interception. Everyone talks about the final game winning drive and completely forgets how inept Barkley and the offense were to that point. True, quarterbacks are judged on the end result and he deserves credit for the finish, but it’s also factual that much of the drive featured dump-offs and easy passes that allowed Trojan playmakers, namely Joe McKnight, to make something happen. I don’t want to to discount that he got the win, but that was less about Barkley and more about the team. He didn’t lose the game, but he didn’t win it either.

Saturday, he comes into Autzen Stadium on Halloween night and faces the best pass defense he has yet to see. It’s perhaps the best he will see all season. Of course, there’s a wild card in that Oregon’s secondary is depleted, but the group has held up admirably all year.

Does any of this prove that Barkley can’t handle the impending moment? No. But it does show that there is reason to believe Saturday’s challenge is greater than any other to date. I think it’s very possible this will be a historical  crescendo for Autzen Stadium and I’m afraid not even Tom Brady could escape what lies just 4 days ahead.

When USC invades Autzen Stadium Saturday, the national perception is that the Trojans will bring the “D” while the Ducks look to make their mark on offense. Few outside the Oregon fanbase realize that the beating heart of this team is a stingy and downright hostile defense.

In that case, perception needs a heavy dose of reality. Through seven games with three common opponents, there is virtually no difference between the reputable Trojan defense and Oregon’s historically maligned unit. The only thing that really stands out is the takeaways with Oregon leading the conference and USC in dead last. That’s a huge stat that could easily swing the outcome of the game.

One could even argue that these are two units heading in opposite directions. Oregon’s worst efforts came early while USC has looked uncharacteristically vulnerable in its past two games.

Here’s a look at how the two teams stack up so far.

* Whoops, forgot to explain adjusted scoring. It’s the points per game the defense is responsible for (i.e. excludes opposing team’s defensive and special teams touchdowns). What’s really remarkable is that the adjusted scoring still includes Washington State’s 1 yard drive and Cal’s -8 yard drive.

It was a no-brainer, but it’s been made official that the College GameDay crew will head to Eugene. I’m assuming this means Kirk Herbstreit will be calling the game for ABC or ESPN which means no prediction from the Duck skeptic. Bummer. I was counting on his USC pick to ensure an Oregon win.

This will be the third time in three years (and fourth overall) that ESPN’s premier college football show will visit Autzen Stadium. I still, along with a few equally deranged friends, hold the distinction as being first in line for the spectacle’s first appearance in 2000. And yeah, I really just bragged about that. Make of it what you will.

Other ESPN College GameDay visits are listed below. Oregon is 2-1 in such games having lost to Cal in 2007.

• 2000 – #6 UCLA
• 2007 – #6 Cal
• 2007 – #4 ASU

The preliminary weather report isn’t good with a high of 56 degrees and 40% chance of showers.

With reference to the headline, hey, I didn’t say it. That acclaim goes to John Canzano of The Oregonian in what now looks like a gigantic whiff.  We all had our doubts after Boise State, but missing out on bowl eligibility? Quite a reach. Now, 6-1 Oregon goes looking for win number 7. Here’s my Sunday thoughts as we move on.

1. Why is it that every time a national analyst or reporter talks about Oregon, they always preface it with, “Oregon has really turned it around since Boise State.”? At what point do we get to move on from that game? Is it permanently attached to the Ducks reputation or can it possibly be wiped clean by a win over USC? Either way, it’s a virtual guarantee to pop up about 2,837 times this week as the four letter hype machine that is ESPN descends on Eugene (GameDay all but certain to visit).
2. Speaking of everyone’s favorite sports network, if Kirk Herbstreit picks Oregon, I encourage everyone to loudly boo him. I’m pretty sure he has us at 1-3 in conference play so far with his predictions. Thanks Kirk and be sure to bring your tanning lotion. I hear it’s going to be rainy and overcast.
3. I can’t believe how easy the win was against Washington. The Huskies had played everyone competitive including USC and LSU. And who would have expected negative rushing yards from Jake Locker? They didn’t even try anything with him. The only conclusion I can reach is that this team is seriously good.
4. Number of seniors on Oregon’s two-deep against UW: 5. That’s five seniors out of 44 players. A total of three started. Wow.
5. Look for Oregon to request a waiver this week to play 2010 defensive back recruits against USC. There’s hardly anyone left now that Talmadge Jackson is, uh, day to day. Then again, true freshman Cliff Harris looks like he can do it all himself. Alongside fellow freshman John Boyett and sophomores Javes Lewis and Anthony Gildon, boy, the Duck’s future in the defensive backfield is good.
6. Oregon has the best two yard line defense in the nation. I’m sure of it.
7. I’m writing this before the rankings are released, but the Ducks feel undervalued to me. One team that is especially bugging me is Iowa. Good for them for winning every game, but I’m having a hard time accepting the Hawkeyes as a top ten team.
8. A quick, crack analysis of USC… Lot of opportunities passing the football over the middle. Watching the OSU game, the tight end was often open for big gains, but I would expect USC to scheme more for Ed Dickson. The Beavers also had a lot of successful runs straight up the gut. On plays to the outside, USC’s speed advantage was obvious. Matt Barkley is not yet as great as everyone keeps saying. As a true freshman, he stands out, but if you weren’t analyzing him with that disclaimer, he wouldn’t be as celebrated. I know he won at Ohio State and Notre Dame, but, with no offense to tradition, big deal. Autzen Stadium will be a whole different beast. The Trojans are athletic and their talent is relentless. You have to play hard from start to finish to beat them and mistakes must be kept to a minimum. More as the week goes on.

Thanks to friend of the blog Andy for the reminder about Canzano’s “Six Wins” quote. The Ducks got there in record time.

Welcome to Game Day. For the many of you who haven’t watched a live Oregon game on TV since the trip to Boise, trust me, the view via plasma has become a lot better since then. You’ll enjoy.

As for me, I’m giving that nice couch groove some time off and am probably figuring out a way to enjoy beer before noon at the Rose Bowl as you read this. Here’s a select look at the week that was in links with a thanking nod to Duck Sports News for its daily collection of news.

• Ted Miller had a superb mailbag on Friday. He has a great response to the thought that LeGarrette Blount’s reinstatement had anything to do with the presence of a lawyer. There’s also a well-reasoned take on why an 11-1 Oregon would be higher ranked than 12-0 Boise. I know, pie in the sky stuff, but something I was thinking about addressing during the bye week.
• sportsBYbrooks wonders about Oregon’s “laundering” of Blount with big names like Tony Dungy and Dr. Harry Edwards. At this point, if you commit a very public crime, wouldn’t your first call be to Dungy?I’m kicking myself for not writing about this.
• Ken Woody, who’s always worth a read, tackles the Autzen Mystique. There’s science, human opinion, stats and a few shades of homerism. In other words, all the elements for a great post.
• Jeff Smith formally introduced us to Nate Costa and after reading, you have to feel at least a little more confident that Nate can handle the moment this weekend.
• Not a link because I wouldn’t even know who to credit, but the biggest news of the week was the ongoing saga of Oregon’s injury situation. Chip Kelly remained tight-lipped and even seemed a little, pardon the pun, chippy. I’m thinking he’ll need to relax a little bit over the long-haul in laid back Eugene.
• I actually linked to this yesterday, but it’s worth repeating. Paul Wulff said he was miffed at Chip Kelly’s defensive challenge to preserve the shutout last Saturday. He also says he’s collecting chips on his shoulder to pay back someday. Something tells me Chip isn’t shaking over Wulff’s “chips.”
• Finally, on the recruiting front, the Ducks picked up a marquee offensive lineman from Arizona named Nick Rowland. He’s listed as one of the top players in the country at his position by multiple scouting services.

I guess Andy Ludwig scripts his plays that he uses specifically for games in Autzen Stadium. Somehow, I managed to get ahold of a copy of the script. It’s eerily similar to an era stretching from 2002-04. Frankly, I don’t see the benefit in the plan, but Ludwig’s been using it for so long, who am I to argue? (Go easy on the guy that put this together. I was told Adobe Flash isn’t his strength).

I wonder what I’ll do when I grow up and have real things to do on fall Saturdays.

1. I think the days of walking over the Huskies are over. We knew it was coming. I embrace it because I love the rivalry and, believe it or not, I’ve missed them. We’ll see over time just how dumb that sentiment is. Still, it doesn’t mean UW is a loss waiting to happen this season. I get the feeling they are going to flirt with about a 6-6 season when it’s all said and done which would be a remarkable turn-around.

2. Cincinnati looked good. The Big East is usually an easy target, but I think the Bearcats are legit. Quarterback Tony Pike seems to be a master of the offense and they don’t hold the playbook back. I know being the front runner of the Big East is like being the best electrician in Amish country, but I think they can compete at a top 10 level. It’s a tough loss for Beaver fans, but not one that defines their season by any means.

3. Kirk Herbstreit, improbably, is getting even orangier (it’s kind of a word). He might be a pumpkin by Halloween. Granted, a pumpkin with bright blue eyes and gorgeous frosted hair, but a pumpkin nonetheless (I only wish I had a picture of his close-up in the booth of the Texas-Texas Tech game to illustrate this).

4. I can’t resist one Oregon reference. I liked the uniform combo. Apparently, no one else did and that’s fine. Is it the best of the hundreds of combos? No, but I liked it better than the “all greens” a week ago. Jeremiah Masoli needs help though. These unis make him look like he’s wearing mom jeans (these are the things you notice when watching games with an FOTB. Actually, I noticed that on my home, but don’t tell anyone).

5. Purdue’s loss to Northern Illinois surprised me. I thought they played really well at Autzen and was expecting them to be a competitive team this year. Of course, one loss doesn’t mean they’re done, but it stains my impression of them.

6. Give it up for Washington State after getting a win in overtime over SMU. If only they could call it a season. 1-2 sounds so much better than 1-11.

For two teams having only dipped its toes into the season’s waters, Saturday might as well be considered the big plunge. Utah has struggled with lesser opponents while Oregon put on one of its worst performances of the decade in Boise. The winner gets to put some of the early doubts behind them and move forward with the confidence to meet high expectations.

Of course, the stakes may be higher for Oregon which actually has a loss on its record. Another misstep and it’s 1-2 with highly ranked Cal waiting to make it 1-3. Many are comparing it to 1994 (the birth of football) when the team started 1-2 and lost to Utah at home. I don’t see it. Different era, different teams, different scenarios. This game feels critical if you still harbor hopes for the type of season that results in Rose-filled  holidays (whether that should be your expectation or not is another matter). Sure, win or lose, it’s still 0-0 in the Pac-10, but it’s time to make a statement.

Stopping Utah won’t be easy. This is a team that has, in the last five years, proven itself worthy of competing on a bigger stage than the Mountain West Conference usually provides. One could argue for the inclusion of the Utes as a Pac-10 team. After all, like the Pac, they’re an SEC killer (11-8 this decade SEC, deal with the inferiority however you must). They are also tenants of the nation’s longest winning streak at 16 games. Say what you will about Mountain West Conference competition, but it’s at least as good as the Big East and its top three teams are as good as any.

FOTB's Uni Pick

The Ducks could be getting a huge break if Utah running back Matt Asiata can’t go. He’s been listed this week as questionable with a shoulder injury. That usually means out. And for Oregon, that’s a good thing. At 230 lbs., Asiata has already carried the ball 56 times for 250 yards and is the kind of guy that could wear an unheralded defensive line down as the game goes on.

Still, if he can’t play, Oregon has to deal with Terrance Cain. The junior college transfer quarterback has quickly put up big numbers, albeit against, well, terrible competition. He’s the kind of guy that you think Autzen Stadium will eat up, and the next thing you know, he’s torched your secondary for 300 yards.

The stat that sticks out so far, though, is Utah’s five turnovers while taking the ball from opponents just twice. Oregon has been opportunistic this season grabbing six takeaways and scoring on two of them. Is two games enough to declare those stats the definitive decider? Not a chance, but it’s alarming for Utah, especially playing on the road in a venue as difficult as Autzen Stadium.

Ultimately, it comes down to that which we’ve left alone to this point, Oregon’s offense. It usually does with the Ducks. When they’re clicking, winning is a virtual certainty. When they’re not, the results can be ugly. Ed Dickson figures to be a central figure in Oregon’s game plan and you would imagine Masoli will be used in a variety of ways to open up opportunities in the running game while the offensive line finds its identity. Don’t expect the usual Oregon offense yet, but expect enough progress to knock off Utah and set the stage for next week’s Pac-10 opener.