Welcome to the official, “we didn’t want him anyway” post. Jeremiah Masoli to be charged in the infamous theft case? Eh, didn’t want him in the first place. LaMichael James changing his plea? Psh, not like he was the best back we ever recruited.

Right? Who’s with me? Still need some convincing? Just check out these side by side comparisons based on actual facts. Click on the projected stats link for Seastrunk. It’s mind-boggling how good he is going to be (and one has to wonder how long before ESPN sends a team of lawyers to my door step).

I think we can all agree that Oregon is in fine shape for the 2010 season and, in fact, may have just improved their standing with the criminal charges being brought against these supposed “superstars.”

The Rose Bowl is being featured as “irresistible force meets immovable object.” It’s Oregon’s offensive juggernaut against Ohio State’s defensive stalwart.

There is no denying each team flashes greatness on those two sides of the ball. But what about the other story, the one you could supposedly call “completely resistible force meets entirely movable object?”

The Buckeyes offense doesn’t garner headlines nor does the Ducks defense. But does that really mean each unit is as flawed as perception allows?

Today, we’ll look at the Ohio State offense and see where the danger lurks. Tomorrow, we’ll probe the Oregon defense and find out what the opposition should fear.

Part I: Is it better than you think? The Ohio State Offense

The book on Ohio State’s offense says conservative, plodding and unimaginative. And if that’s not the book, it’s at least perception. Coach Jim Tressel was roundly criticized for shutting down his offense in the waning moments of regulation against Iowa when there was more than enough time to drive for a winning field goal. It would have made Chip Kelly gag.

But it proved to be a winning formula on that Saturday and guaranteed Ohio State’s Rose Bowl berth.

To gain some perspective on Ohio State’s offensive prowess, let’s look at the numbers in the chart displayed to the right.

The only thing that positively sticks out is Ohio State’s ability to run the football. This certainly fits the image of a conservative, plodding and unimaginative team, right?

The other thing that sticks out is decidedly negative. The passing offense is statistically bad. In fact, it’s among the worst in the nation. But then again, so is flashy, dynamic Oregon who ranks only slightly better in both yards per game and pass efficiency.

So flashy, dynamic Oregon is similar in style to plodding, conservative Ohio State? Well, not exactly. The Buckeyes score 8.4 fewer points per game and the curve of the season has shown Jeremiah Masoli’s numbers to dramatically improve while Terrelle Pryor has thrown fewer passes in the last three games than all but two others from the first nine contests.

But following that same curve, the Buckeyes have become far better at running the ball and, as such, have relied heavily on that part of the game. Since back-to-back midseason games in which it failed to reach 100 yards, Ohio State has rushed for at least 228 yards in the final five games.  They have dominated time of possession and were seriously threatened only once. The fewest rushing attempts in any of those games was 49.

And this five game stretch was not against the weaker part of the conference. The Buckeyes played both Penn State and Iowa during this run and finished against rival Michigan which regardless of current standings still means something.

Ohio State, over the last five weeks, has committed more to the run and less to the pass

It would be surprising to see Ohio State have much success through the air given Pryor’s lack of numbers on the season and the team’s overall lack of confidence in that part of the game. But one could easily imagine an undersized Oregon Duck defensive line getting pushed around allowing the Buckeyes to control the clock as they have done over their last five games.

UO’s defensive line features only two players on the two-deep heavier than 270 pounds. Every Buckeye starter on the offensive line is at least 296 pounds. Tressel is surely looking at those numbers and seeing a possible opportunity that he can exploit.

If he finds success and OSU is able to get to 50 carries, which has worked so well lately, the Ducks could find the Buckeye offense to be more formidable than previously thought.

It was the game the rivalry deserved. And now that it’s over, just a few simple words say it all. The Ducks are going to the Rose Bowl.

Wow.

The game wasn’t always always clean, but it was one for the ages.

Ducks and Beavers traded blows for 60 minutes and as has been the case all season, Oregon wore its opponent down in the second half and asserted itself when the game entered the decisive stages.

Until then, it looked like the Beavers might take control and use a script laid out by the Ducks in 2008 to ruin the home team’s Rose Bowl dreams. But would you believe that when things were at their worst, Chip Kelly would turn to LeGarrette Blount for the first time since the season opener?

Putting Blount in the game while facing a nine point deficit seemed crazy. Turns out, it was brilliant as the big back came up with a huge touchdown to draw Oregon within two at 30-28.

From there, LaMichael James became dominant, turning in a 52 yard lead-taking touchdown run on the next offensive series. The defense began to shine after giving up scores on five consecutive drives between the second and third quarters.

When the game was on the line in the final six minutes, it was fitting to see Jeramiah Masoli, James and Blount all turning in huge plays to ultimately ensure the Beavers would never get another chance.

Oregon State played a great game. Sean Canfield looks like a bonafide pro. The Rodgers brothers are ridiculously talented. And they all deserve a much better bowl than what might be available after Saturday’s games. The Holiday had better think long and hard about the Beavers who would travel well and be an ideal representative for the Pac-10 in the league’s second best bowl.

But I’m sure opponent respect isn’t what the Beavers were after. Clearly, they wanted the spoils of the victor, but Thursday, those were reserved for Oregon.

As the final seconds ticked down and melted into a post game celebration where fans could not and would not leave, the scene at Autzen Stadium seemed surreal even through ESPN’s cameras a state away.

I sat and watched. And smiled. And kept smiling. And then I saw that first red rose, and Oh My God! The Ducks are in the Rose Bowl! That really just happened. How sweet it is.

It’s Thursday, December 3, 2009 and you know what that means.

This is no time to be timid. Oregon State is thine enemy and no mercy can be shown. Roses are on the line, winner take all and while flowers might seem like a silly thing to play for, to a collegiate man, there’s nothing more valuable.

But don’t mistake the Rose Bowl as the only thing on the line tonight. It’s not all these guys are playing for. Mike Bellotti would tell you it’s for the right to live in the state (well, if you actually live there). Co-workers, family and friends are just a tad more bearable when you have the W on your side.

I come into this game more nervous than a year ago. Perhaps it’s because Oregon’s stakes are higher, but I think it has more to do with knowing the Ducks aren’t dropping 65 on the Beavers two years in a row. By default, this game has to be more competitive.

FOTB Pick

But also, the Beavers have their full arsenal on offense with Jacquizz Rodgers healthy this year. Say what you will about the debate between him and LaMichael James running the football, but Rodgers is also the Pac-10’s second leading receiver. He’s dynamic and it’s something OSU didn’t have a year ago.

Still, Autzen Stadium is the security blanket. The defense is far better in front of the home fans and the offense’s worst output in Pac-10 play was 42 points against Cal. The Ducks have been more dominant at home this season than any in recent memory.

At some point, with the raucous energy of the crowd behind them, Oregon is going to have that opportunity to deliver a couple of haymakers. Chip Kelly will put the pedal to the metal and the Beavers won’t know what hit them. I can see this game turning over a 5-10 minute span of defensive and offensive playmaking that demoralizes the orange and black.

But enough already. It’s all words and there’s really nothing left to discuss. It’s been two weeks of rehashed stereotypes and storylines.

The only thing left unsaid is 60 minutes of football. We’re just hours away. Your travel agent is standing by.

The Civil War count stands at 112. It’s about to move to 113. Through all those games, there have been just a handful that have truly mattered at a national level. In recent memory, a Pac-10 title has been at stake four times (that’s since football began in 1994). Before that, I’d guess the total was probably about four all time.

But really, the argument for “Biggest Civil War Ever” really comes down to one of two years: 2000 or 2009?

You can make an argument for either year. I had been thinking 2009 without question. Now that I look back at it, it’s a lot closer than I thought but two things ultimately make this the bigger game: (1) The winner goes to the Rose Bowl and (2) Media attention is infinitely more intense now.

In arguing for the the 2000 game, you could say both teams were more nationally prominent. The records were much better and Oregon was aiming at becoming one of a select few teams to ever go undefeated in Pac-10 play.

Either way, you can’t go wrong.

	Tale of The Civil War Tape
Category	2000		2009
UO/OSU Ranking *	5 & 8		8 & 16
Winner Eligible For Rose Bowl ¥	Both		Both
Combined Record Prior to Game	18-2		17-5
Combined Win Percentage	90%		77.2%
Worst Case Scenario for Losing Team	Holiday Bowl		Las Vegas Bowl
TV Broadcast	ABC Regional ??		ESPN HD National
Venue	Original Reser		Remodeled Autzen
Coaches ±	Erickson/Bellotti		Riley/Kelly
Star Players †	Chad Johnson/Joey Harrington		Jacquizz Rodgers/Jeremiah Masoli
Roses Being Waved From Our Car in Corvallis En Route To Game	A Bushel		None
Soul Crushing Defeats	1		No Freaking Way

* Using AP Rankings.
¥ Oregon State would have gone to the Rose Bowl had Washington lost later that day so technically, the Beavers had a shot going into the game.
± None of the four coaches had/has the cache that Dennis Erickson carried with him off of his Miami Hurricane fame and NFL experience.
† I think the 2009 game has more star power, if only because the media is more intense now. Chad Johnson wasn’t even close to a household name yet and Joey Harrington was a year away from a Times Square billboard.

I may still be in ICU but they can’t stop me from blogging. Some Sunday thoughts…

1. Let’s just get this out of the way. Arizona played a hell of a game. Oregon put up 44 on them, but I felt that was the best defense Oregon has faced all season. The Wildcats were disciplined and accounted for every movement Jeremiah Masoli made. The game was a battle and it took a gritty, championship performance for Oregon to leave with a win.
2. Arizona’s fans, on the other hand, failed miserably. Who gets ready to rush the field as the other team positions itself to tie the game? That was a “haven’t been there, haven’t done that” moment for the Wildcat faithful.
   

   The blog's facial expression has been stuck in the above form since roughly 9:05 p.m. on Nov. 21.

3. Nate Costa proved that you don’t have to be a regular player to make a huge impact. I’m comfortable making the claim that his work on the extra point to tie the game with 6 seconds left was the greatest hold in the history of football. And kicker Morgan Flint did a fantastic job of being patient and putting it through as Costa got the ball down. Neither player panicked under stressful circumstances and the Ducks were able to force overtime.
4. Jeremiah Masoli is on the verge of an invite to New York for the Heisman ceremony. How could he not be? Six touchdowns, 345 total yards of offense, a 15 play, 80 yard game winning tying drive and a stellar overtime all with a Rose Bowl on the line is the work of one of college football’s best players. He should be rewarded for the way he has played. Of course, the Civil War will dictate just how worthy he is of such an honor.
5. LaMichael James isn’t just a good runner, he’s also clutch. James wasn’t getting the carries throughout the second half, but when he got the call late in the game and in overtime, his determined effort and innate vision saved Oregon. He’s also now a Pac-10 record holder with the most rushing yards for a freshman in conference history.
6. There’s no doubt Oregon got lucky. They recovered early fumbles and Morgan Flint got a fateful forward bounce off the crossbar to tie the game in the fourth quarter. But as he lined up for that kick, I couldn’t help but think of the pressure kick they had him do in practice earlier this week (he made it). I had a soccer coach that always said, “Practice doesn’t make perfect. Perfect practice makes perfect.” In this case, the Oregon coaches put Flint in a position to feel confident on that kick. Preparation has a lot to do with who gets lucky.
7. Comment of the day goes to FOTB’s visiting friend/acting sister as she lay on the couch while Masoli scored the winning touchdown. As FOTB and the blog jump around hysterically, she calmly  – and seriously – said: “So the Ducks won, right?” Oregon football: it’s not for everyone.
8. Take Chip’s advice and allow yourself a day of celebration. A Civil War for the ages looms, but we can worry about that on Monday. Today, the blog is going to revel in the moment.

Damn you day job…don’t you know my true love is Oregon Duck blogging? How dare you distract me. Let’s catch up on the week so far.

What’s more fun? Reading about LeGarrette Blount or Getting Hit By Him?

I have a medical condition known as Blount Fatigue. I don’t want to hear about it anymore. Give him a carry. Or don’t. Just stop talking about it! Terrell Owens called and said he wants his attention back.

Like Ron Burgundy said on his ESPN audition, “That’s just dumb”

Am I reading this right? An Oregon State player would rather play in the Holiday Bowl than root for Oregon this weekend to set up the Beavers’ shot at a Rose Bowl? And people agree with him? I always root for whatever is best for the Oregon Ducks. Period. If that means I have to dress up with buck teeth, slap a flat tail on my ass and gnaw on some trees for a weekend, so be it (do with the visual what you will).

Masoli! Look out! It’s Arizona!

Did you hear? Arizona is where Duck quarterbacks go to die (or suffer season-ending injuries). The last two desert trips have resulted in Kellen Clemens and Dennis Dixon playing their last down of college football. No, really, it happened in both 2005 and 2007. Honestly, how many of these friendly reminder articles do I need to give you? It’s mostly The Oregonian’s fault. Apparently, they want whatever resilient part of me that soldiered on two years ago to finally die.

I Smell Roses

I was just reading about this viral video that didn’t “viral” it’s way to my laptop before the University of Oregon freaked out and shut it down. But Google is still my friend and while I get the UO’s point, you can’t stop the internet. It’s kind of big. In case you’re like me and just crawled out from under your rock, here it is courtesy of Yahoo Australia (sorry Angie, you should have let me be a marketing intern).

This week’s prediction post takes on a different approach after having read Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News make his case for Stanford. While applauding his gumption for sticking his neck out in defense of the home town team, I found myself agreeing with, well, none of it.

As such, I have to offer my counter. Wilner’s 10 reasons the Cardinal will win are summarized to keep this thing from turning into a novella.

10. Wilner says: Stanford plays disciplined defense which will make up for a disadvantage in speed.
OTP says: The Cardinal are 7th against the run in the Pac-10. Before last Saturday, USC was giving up roughly 80 yards a game on the ground. Oregon totaled 392. Discipline or not, the Cardinal aren’t good enough on defense to stop Oregon.

9. Wilner says: Chris Owusu, who has taken three kicks back for touchdowns, is due to break a big return beacause he hasn’t in awhile.
OTP says: Stanford and Oregon are the top two teams in covering kickoffs. I doubt either will break down this week even against stellar returners. And as we’ll see later, Wilner has a penchant for figuring something will happen on the sole basis that it’s due. In that case, I’d like to bet everything I have on black.

8. Wilner says: Stanford ruined Oregon’s big season in 2001.
OTP says: Cute fact and completely irrelevant for a game being played in 2009.

7. Wilner says: The Cardinal believe they can win and almost did a year ago with a gimpy Toby Gerhart and no Andrew Luck.
OTP says: Oh my God! And the Ducks don’t have LeGarrette Blount like they did last year! Okay, give Wilner credit. He’s getting closer to having something to do with 2009. Still pretty irrelevant, though, considering the conditions of that game were terrible.

FOTB Pick

6. Wilner says: Masoli played a clunker in his last game in the Bay Area against California.
OTP says: Yikes! That’s three completely irrelevant points in a row. The Cal game was played in roughly three feet of standing water. Masoli has never played well in rainy conditions. Saturday’s forecast is all sunshine.

5. Wilner says: Only USC has gone undefeated in Pac-10 play this decade so Oregon is due to lose eventually.
OTP says: Perhaps the most irrelevant point of all. Oregon is playing Stanford, not some mystic voodoo that disallows a team from winning all its games.

4. Wilner says: The game is played on grass which will slow Oregon’s speed, but not effect Stanford’s physicality.
OTP says: Maybe. The Ducks have only played one game on grass this year and it was their worst offensive output of the season. It was also without Jeremiah Masoli and LaMichael James was still well over 100 yards. Pretty sure the playing surface won’t mean a thing when Oregon’s at full strength.

3. Wilner says: Stanford’s wine and cheese crowd will have a reverse atmosphere effect and lull the Ducks to sleep.
OTP says: Really? This is the third best reason Stanford wins? There will be plenty of atmosphere courtesy of the thousands of Duck fans expected to attend.

2. Wilner says: It’s good to play teams after they faced USC. Oregon is primed for a letdown. Stanford is rested coming off of a bye.
OTP says: Uh oh, Stanford is outscoring opponents 109-21 under Jim Harbaugh coming off of a bye week.  What? That was against Washington State, San Jose State and Notre Dame? Really, they even lost to 3-9 Notre Dame? Scary. Well, what about teams letting down after playing USC? A quick fact check reveals Oregon is 6-1 this decade following games against the Trojans.

1. Wilner says: Stanford controls the ball with it’s power running game against an undersized Oregon defense. They mix in some play-action passes and the net result is less possession time for Oregon. Stanford will score at will in the second half while the Ducks offense sputters from its lack of rhythm.
OTP says: Ok, if Stanford does win, this is probably how it happens. However, the blog would like to dip into an overused cliche and channel Lee Corso with it’s first “Not so fast my friend!” of the season. Oregon is two seconds from being in last place for time of possession. You can go on long drives all you want. It takes IBM’s Roadrunner supercomputer more time to run 2+2 than it does for the Ducks to score (too geeky? Yeah, thought so). As for wearing Oregon down in the second half, well Mr. Wilner, it hasn’t happened yet, so it’s bound to happen now. Right?

I’m barely getting by here, but you have to understand, it’s the coaching. I can’t take the blame for Jim Harbaugh messing up a game his team mostly dominated. And there’s no way I’m letting Steve Sarkisian and Nick Holt off the hook for that stunt they pulled down in the desert. Nope, 2-2 wasn’t my fault and as such, I find my picks completely passable. This week, coaches be damned, I’m going 5-0.

Oregon @ Washington
The Huskies have been competitive but that doesn’t make them good. Oregon, unfortunately, gets Washington on the road where they have been significantly better. Still, I’d be surprised if the Huskies have enough to win this game. Crowds and passion are great, but in the end, one team’s better than the other and in this case, it’s Oregon by a mile.

The Pick…Oregon with a Jeremiah Masoli caveat. If he doesn’t play, I reserve the right to have this pick annulled.

Washington State @ California
In a league where any team could lose to eight other squads, everyone loves a date with Washington State. Cal’s rehabilitation will look even brighter after Saturday.

The Pick…California with absolutely no caveats whatsoever.

UCLA @ Arizona
Could it be? Are the Mike Stoops-led Wildcats for real? We’ve been promised this for years and I’ll be damned if Arizona doesn’t actually have something brewing finally. This one should be a breeze as UCLA is reeling.

The Pick…Arizona

Oregon State @ USC
Growing up in a Beaver household, I had an atypical upbringing for a Duck fan. I actually find it cool to see OSU in the spotlight like this against USC. Sure, they’ve been winning for 10 years now, but they’ve come a loooooooong way. Still, I have ulterior motives here, so mom, dad, you’ll have to excuse me while I root for the Trojans.

The Pick…USC, but not in a blowout. I don’t think the Trojans really have it in them this year to demolish teams like they have in the past.

Arizona State @ Stanford
I still love you Stanford!! I feel like a jilted lover that can’t let go at this point. We had some good times and I have no idea how it all fell apart. You can still do this guys. You’re back at home where you don’t lose and it’s just Arizona State. Take care of business, dammit.

The Pick…Stanford. Oh, my sweet Stanford.