When USC comes to town on Halloween, they do so with true freshman Matt Barkley at quarterback. Autzen Stadium, Kellen Moore notwithstanding, is unpleasant to newbies.

Through half a season, though, Barkley is being heaped with praise as a guy that plays beyond his years. I suppose one has to be impressed with the early body of work given his inexperience, but can the Trojans really get away with a true freshman at Autzen Stadium in a game as hyped as any in its history?

I don’t think so (cue references to Notre Dame and Ohio State).

Of course, what I think is just an opinion so I went to work manipulating the numbers to back me up.

The first thing we need to look at is how Barkley stacks up relative to the rest of the nation.

What does this tell us?

1. This is a solid quarterback who could become great. He’s one of only 3 freshmen with a top 50 quarterback rating.
2. He passes for a lot of yards for a team that virtually never has to play from behind which indicates the yards are generally meaningful.
3. The high ranking in yards per attempt seems to support my thinking that he throws a good deep ball and will connect on those more frequently than his peers.
4. He has both a low number of TDs and INTs which indicates USC is careful in what they ask him to do.

Okay, with the setup out of the way, let the debunking begin.

When we look at who this body of work has come against, it’s revealing at just how poor the opposing pass defenses have been. Teams have played a minimum of seven games so it’s not like one can say Barkley’s performance is skewing opposing defense’s stats.

Four of the six pass defenses Barkley has faced are ranked 111 or lower in total yards per game. That’s out of 120 teams meaning he’s faced four units that are in the bottom 10 nationally. In other words, Barkley hasn’t just faced bad pass defenses, he’s faced the worst. He’s also only encountered two reputable pass rushes (Cal and Ohio State). In those two games, Barkley had no touchdowns and two interceptions.

Still there were two games against statistically respectable pass defenses. Let’s take a look.

• San Jose State, 41st: The Spartans have the third worst rush defense in the country, so this ranking is likely more a reflection of the fact teams are content to run all game. The low pass efficiency rating would seem to support that. Against San Jose State, Barkley passed for 233 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions.
• Ohio State, 29th: To date, the only quality pass defense USC has faced. Barkley, on the road in a hostile environment went 15-31 for 195 yards with no touchdowns and one interception. Everyone talks about the final game winning drive and completely forgets how inept Barkley and the offense were to that point. True, quarterbacks are judged on the end result and he deserves credit for the finish, but it’s also factual that much of the drive featured dump-offs and easy passes that allowed Trojan playmakers, namely Joe McKnight, to make something happen. I don’t want to to discount that he got the win, but that was less about Barkley and more about the team. He didn’t lose the game, but he didn’t win it either.

Saturday, he comes into Autzen Stadium on Halloween night and faces the best pass defense he has yet to see. It’s perhaps the best he will see all season. Of course, there’s a wild card in that Oregon’s secondary is depleted, but the group has held up admirably all year.

Does any of this prove that Barkley can’t handle the impending moment? No. But it does show that there is reason to believe Saturday’s challenge is greater than any other to date. I think it’s very possible this will be a historical  crescendo for Autzen Stadium and I’m afraid not even Tom Brady could escape what lies just 4 days ahead.

With reference to the headline, hey, I didn’t say it. That acclaim goes to John Canzano of The Oregonian in what now looks like a gigantic whiff.  We all had our doubts after Boise State, but missing out on bowl eligibility? Quite a reach. Now, 6-1 Oregon goes looking for win number 7. Here’s my Sunday thoughts as we move on.

1. Why is it that every time a national analyst or reporter talks about Oregon, they always preface it with, “Oregon has really turned it around since Boise State.”? At what point do we get to move on from that game? Is it permanently attached to the Ducks reputation or can it possibly be wiped clean by a win over USC? Either way, it’s a virtual guarantee to pop up about 2,837 times this week as the four letter hype machine that is ESPN descends on Eugene (GameDay all but certain to visit).
2. Speaking of everyone’s favorite sports network, if Kirk Herbstreit picks Oregon, I encourage everyone to loudly boo him. I’m pretty sure he has us at 1-3 in conference play so far with his predictions. Thanks Kirk and be sure to bring your tanning lotion. I hear it’s going to be rainy and overcast.
3. I can’t believe how easy the win was against Washington. The Huskies had played everyone competitive including USC and LSU. And who would have expected negative rushing yards from Jake Locker? They didn’t even try anything with him. The only conclusion I can reach is that this team is seriously good.
4. Number of seniors on Oregon’s two-deep against UW: 5. That’s five seniors out of 44 players. A total of three started. Wow.
5. Look for Oregon to request a waiver this week to play 2010 defensive back recruits against USC. There’s hardly anyone left now that Talmadge Jackson is, uh, day to day. Then again, true freshman Cliff Harris looks like he can do it all himself. Alongside fellow freshman John Boyett and sophomores Javes Lewis and Anthony Gildon, boy, the Duck’s future in the defensive backfield is good.
6. Oregon has the best two yard line defense in the nation. I’m sure of it.
7. I’m writing this before the rankings are released, but the Ducks feel undervalued to me. One team that is especially bugging me is Iowa. Good for them for winning every game, but I’m having a hard time accepting the Hawkeyes as a top ten team.
8. A quick, crack analysis of USC… Lot of opportunities passing the football over the middle. Watching the OSU game, the tight end was often open for big gains, but I would expect USC to scheme more for Ed Dickson. The Beavers also had a lot of successful runs straight up the gut. On plays to the outside, USC’s speed advantage was obvious. Matt Barkley is not yet as great as everyone keeps saying. As a true freshman, he stands out, but if you weren’t analyzing him with that disclaimer, he wouldn’t be as celebrated. I know he won at Ohio State and Notre Dame, but, with no offense to tradition, big deal. Autzen Stadium will be a whole different beast. The Trojans are athletic and their talent is relentless. You have to play hard from start to finish to beat them and mistakes must be kept to a minimum. More as the week goes on.

Thanks to friend of the blog Andy for the reminder about Canzano’s “Six Wins” quote. The Ducks got there in record time.

I need some redemption. I barely surfaced above .500 last week. There’s only one game on the Pac-10 schedule I’m sure of, so this could be a disaster.

California @ Oregon
Logic be damned, the Ducks are going to win. Well, I think they are. They will, won’t they?

The Pick: Oregon

Washington @ Stanford
The Great White Sark takes his show on the road for the first time. Huskies, you’re not there yet, but you’re getting closer. I know we’re still a month away, but I want to remind you of one simple thing. Beating USC does not mean Oregon won’t still shred you up like cheddar on a cheese grater. We see you, we hear you and we’ll still beat you. Whew, I feel so much better right now.

The Pick: Stanford

Arizona State @ Georgia
It’s fitting the Sun Devils are playing an SEC school because up to this point, their schedule has fit right in with America’s bestest conference ever. I think they’ll be more competitive this time around with the Bulldogs as Georgia has not been too impressive thus far. They may even win, but I doubt it.

The Pick: Georgia

Arizona @ Oregon State
An intriguing game. Before last weekend, you might have thought both teams could go to 3-0 and assert themselves as a conference contender. Now, the loser could be in trouble. I don’t see the Beavers losing two in a row at home.

The Pick: Oregon State

Washington State @ USC
I’m so happy for the Cougars. They have a winning streak. Of course, it’s about to become a nine game losing streak, so hopefully they remember this week fondly. The Trojans again have FOTB’s favorite “Ken doll” Matt Barkley, but they could actually plug Barbie in at quarterback and still win this game.

The Pick: USC

Psst, Cal, I just wanted to let you know you have a huge game against USC next week. It’s going to be epic. You’re a top ten team, they’re a top ten team (in one poll). I mean, it’s big, right? College GameDay might even visit your beautiful Strawberry Canyon stadium. That’s never happened before. You must be really excited to meet Chris Fowler, Lee Corso and the orangest man alive, Kirk Herbstreit. That thing’s on national TV in primetime, too, right? Wow, how exciting!

Have you heard all the talk that you might be the team to beat this year? No, seriously, everyone thinks you’re going to dethrone the Trojans of Troy. They say Jahvid Best might be a Heisman front-runner and that he could run all over USC’s defense. Your secondary, that’s a good unit, too. It looks like Matt Barkley could throw a few picks your way.

You’re excited, aren’t you? Has there ever been a bigger game in the history of your stadium? Probably not. Just think of all that energy flowing through the stadium right before the ball is kicked off. This is going to be your chance to stick your flag in the Pac-10’s proverbial surface and proclaim it Golden Bear country.

Nobody blames you for looking ahead. I’d be excited, too. I’d probably gloss right over the patsy on the schedule that you haven’t lost to in 4 years. In fact, you should. Rest up, stay healthy. Mentally prepare yourselves for the juggernaut that is USC.

If nothing else, at least you’ll have an excuse on Sunday.

Week 2 is in the books. Once again, I dug deep and chased down some sources for the added perspective.

1. USC (2-0)
Why: I promised they’d be on top with a win at Ohio State. No team has proven more than they have and for the rest of the season, they stay here until someone beats them. I’m not as sold on Matt Barkley as an easily impressed media, though. That final drive was Joe McKnight. Give credit to Barkley for not losing the game, but I don’t think USC’s offense is necessarily championship caliber until he gets more experience.
Every college football fan in this country: @&%#, I thought this was a down year!!

2. UCLA (2-0)
Why: My rankings are result-based from the season at hand. Cal has looked great, but they haven’t proven anything other than that they can beat bad teams. UCLA won on the road at Tennessee and I would think of all fans, Cal can see why that’s impressive.
Quarterback Kevin Craft: “Coach, can I go back in now? Kevin (Prince) is hurt. I swear I’ll only throw two picks if you let me play. Please? Coach Neuheisel: Yeeeeaaaah, no. No, definitely not.

3. Cal (2-0)
Why: The Maryland win has less of a shine after the Terrapins nearly lost to James Madison. Beating Eastern Washington means nothing. Basically, they haven’t proven anything yet, but that’s not their fault. In my eyes, they are a legitimate challenger to USC.
Offensive Coordinator Andy Ludwig: “We’re averaging 55.5 points a game. I think I’ve proven I’m good at my job.” Us: “Oregon scored 50 points one time in your three years. What you did to our offense was a crime. You should be behind bars.”

4. Oregon State (2-0)
Why: The Beavers need to send giant gift baskets to all interested parties in that 3rd and 26 play on their game-winning drive. Without the pass interference penalty, they are probably answering questions about why they can’t win non-conference road games (I guess that wasn’t really a reason why they are 4th. Oh well.).
UNLV DB Deante Purvis: “You’re welcome. Please send the check in care of my bookie.”

5. Arizona (2-0)
Why: Well, looks like that win against Central Michigan was fairly impressive now that we’ve seen the Chippewas beat Michigan State.
AP Poll Voters: “We’re paying attention. Win at Iowa and we’ll consider it. It’s just that we haven’t seen you in, like, 11 years, so you’ll just have to be patient.”

6. Oregon (1-1)
Why: That was a tough ten days. There’s still a lot to figure out with this team, but after the opener, any win is a good win.
Oregon Fans: “Uh, well, hmmm, I, uh, yeah.”

7. Stanford (1-1)
Why: Oh Stanford, what happened? You’re my sleeper team this year. I believe in you, but come on. You let one get away and you know it. And don’t give me the 9 am PST start time.  You lost that thing in the second half.
Coach Jim Harbaugh: “Would somebody please show me this clipping penalty? I haven’t been able to find it.”

8. Arizona State (1-0)
Why: They’ve played one game and beat an FCS opponent. They travel to Georgia in two weeks and unless someone above them does something awful, they’ll stay in the bottom three until then.
Louisiana-Monroe: “We’re someone. Didn’t you see our 58-0 win over Texas Southern?” Me: “No, did anyone?”

9. Washington
Why: Because they won! They won! Oh, yes, they won!
Washington Fans: “We’re back, baby! Woof!” The rest of us: “Calm down Rufus. You beat Idaho.”

10. Washington State
Why: Sorry Cougs. The Huskies finally won a game and you are bad. Really bad. Paul Wulff…not a good choice.
Washington State fans: “We know, Nick. It’s kind of obvious so could you just stop rubbing it in?”

Welcome Pac-10 newcomers Steve Sarkisian and Chip Kelly. You are the new representatives at this award ceremony for 2009. We hope you are honored to have such a prestigious award in your name.

The Dennis Erickson Award for “What, I’m Still in the Same Place? Why?”
…And the Winner Is: Taylor Mays, USC Safety. It’s shocking that he came back. Everyone assumed he would enter the NFL draft as a surefire first round pick. Instead, he’s at USC for his senior year and figures to anchor a raw, but talented USC defense.

The Chip Kelly Award for “I’m Destined For Greatness, So Why is Everyone a Little Unsure?”
…And the winner is: Whichever quarterback starts for USC in its opening game. Two Trojan quarterbacks have won Heisman Trophies under Pete Carroll and every time they break in someone new, the doubters quickly subside. Still, until Aaron Corp or Matt Barkley prove it, it’s all guesswork.

The Pete Carroll Award for “How Many Times Do I Have to Say It? This is Where I Want To Be”
…And the winner is: Markus Wheaton, OSU WR. Yep, Wheaton is a Beaver. Duck fans probably still can’t believe the cousin of Kenny Wheaton would do such a thing. We’re still waiting to hear it was a joke. The Ducks now just have to hope Oregon State doesn’t get a program-defining moment from Kenny’s cousin.

The Steve Sarkisian Award for “We’re Going to Be Awesome Because I Said So”
…And the winner is: The Arizona Wildcats. Anyone else feel like Mike Stoops’ bunch has been the next coming of greatness in the conference for the last five years? All they have is a 6-6 regular season and a Las Vegas Bowl trophy to show for it. Sure, the honor could have been given to Washington, but it was ineligible to win its coach’s own award.

The Paul Wulff Award for “Hi, We’re Still Up Here. Hey, over here! Watch for us, We’re Going to Be Better. Ah, Screw It, We’re Terrible.”
…And the Winner Is: Kevin Prince, UCLA QB. Okay, that’s not fair to the redshirt freshman Prince and “terrible” is too strong of a word, but the point is that even though UCLA is moving on from a disastrous year at the quarterback position, they undoubtedly have more growing pains ahead.

The Mike Stoops Award for “I’m a Star. No, Really, Ignore the Mediocrity Because I’m a Star!”
…And the Winner Is: Jake Locker. Sorry, Saint Locker of the Seattleites. It’s not that I want to give you this award, it’s just that you’ve never done anything to justify all the hype your fans are heaping on you. Feel free to prove us wrong.

The Rick Neuheisel Award for “We’re Coming For You No Matter How Ridiculous That Sounds”
…And the Winner Is: The Stanford Cardinal. Believe it or not, Stanford might be good this year. It’s even possible they creep into the top four teams in the conference. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cardinal make a leap to a bowl game for this first time since 2001.

The Mike Riley Award for “What Else Do We Have to Do to Prove We’re Good?”
…And the Winner Is: The whole gosh-darned (tribute to Riley-speak) Pac-10. A 5-0 bowl record in 2008 and stellar records this decade against fellow BCS teams just isn’t enough. Distribution of your product to the masses matters and the Pac-10 is lacking a national audience. Just keep on winning, I guess.

The Jeff Tedford Award for “How Did We Go From Underdog to Overrated?”
…And the Winner Is: Jeremiah Masoli. As a fan of the Duck’s quarterback, it hurts to put him here, but it’s a natural fit. Masoli still has a lot to prove as his hype is riding on the back of a three game stretch to end 2008. He’ll need to put together a full season of strong play.

The Jim Harbaugh Award for “We’re Borderline Geniuses and Oh, Yeah, We Can Play Too”
…And the Winner Is: Mike Nixon, ASU LB. Let’s see, Nixon carries a 4.05 GPA in Political Science and was an Honorable Mention All-Conference player in 2008. And this year, he’s tabbed as a preseason first team player by many. Yeah, he kind of owns this category.

View past Coach’s Awards: 2008