Through the first half of the season, there was much talk of Oregon’s improved defense. They literally dominated teams by forcing turnovers, stoutly defending their end zone from intrusion and even at times scoring points of its own.

And then the last four games happened.

Opponents scored 51, 21, 41 and 33 points against a unit that had previously not given up more than 24 points in any one game. And that 24 included a defensive touchdown and a 19 yard drive following a turnover.

Through its first eight games, the Ducks came up with 20 turnovers. In the last four, Oregon forced its opponents to give it back just four times.

Competition has something to do with that. Outside of Boise State who plays against terrible competition, three of Oregon’s final four opponents also happened to be the top three offenses it faced all year. These were elite offenses that all averaged at least 29.7 points and over 400 yards per game.

With the exception of Toby Gerhart, it wasn’t the run defense that let down. In fact, Oregon held opponent’s rushing attacks significantly below their season averages (again, Gerhart excepted). The pass defense, however, slipped against the likes of Nick Foles, Sean Canfield and Andrew Luck. Foles and Canfield led the Pac-10 in passing this season.

Why is this significant? Ohio State is a decidedly run-oriented offense and averages almost 40 yards more per game on the ground than through the air. Terrell Pryor has been handcuffed and is nowhere near the threat throwing the ball compared to guys like Canfield and Foles.

The chart above would seem to indicate Oregon struggled only against the conference’s top three offenses which happen to be well-balanced units. The end of season slide seems to be more about quality of opposition than anything else. Is it an elite defense? No. But the Ducks have a lot of team speed and aren’t going up against an offensive juggernaut. One could easily see them control the Buckeyes much the way they did most of the schedule.

Throughout Nick Allioti’s history, his defenses have been especially good when they are able to focus on the run and force the opposition to pass. Can Ohio State win the game passing the ball? Probably not. Will they be able to move the ball through the air enough to keep Oregon on its heels? That carries a higher likelihood and could be a key to the game.

If Oregon can control what has become a formidable Ohio State rushing attack, and the Buckeyes can’t establish a passing game, Oregon’s “weaker” side of the ball may end up being the difference.

The season is half over and given the bye week, it’s a good time to review. This look back is brought to you by Flomax  – Creating stronger streams since 1863.

BCS Conference Most Likely to Lose its Automatic Qualifier Status
The Big East is bad and the BCS has provisions to review conference eligibility as an automatic qualifier. Compare the Big East to teams in the Mountain West. Perhaps there are traditional teams with good east coast ties, but in terms of performance, I would bet on the Mountain West over the next few years.

Officiating Most Likely To Suck
The Pac-10. God, the officiating is awful. Awful, awful, awful. I’m so tired of it. The pass interference call in the end zone against Jairus Byrd that took away his interception and essentially gave UCLA a touchdown was one of the worst calls ever seen. Yeah, Oregon has benefited as well, but that’s not the point here. Anyone who is a fan of this conference should want more from the officials and the ones overseeing them.

Pac-10 Team With the Easiest Road to the Rose Bowl
Stop right there. Think before you answer. It’s Oregon State. Of the teams that control their own destiny, they are the only one that has a win over USC. Cal, Stanford and Arizona all still have to play the Trojans with only Oregon having that game out of the way.

Most likely BCS National Title Game
Penn State vs. USC as the Rose Bowl suffers a heart attack watching its affiliated members play for a national title in the Orange Bowl. Texas, Missouri, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas, and Oklahoma are going to eat each other alive in the nation’s best conference.

Most Overrated Conference
Hello SEC. I can acknowledge that my favorite conference is in a down year. I wish the SEC could see it for its true self. Here’s what happens every year. SEC teams get a nice, plush preseason ranking. They then play a bunch of garbage teams to pad records and get five teams in the top ten. They start to beat other throughout the season in constant top ten matchups that make the media swoon. Losing these games carries little penalty so dropping out of the top 25 rarely happens. Everyone ignores the obvious faults or takes half a season to see them (uh, Auburn) and eventually the surviving team makes the title game and gets to beat up on Ohio State. They are like every other major conference – a few good to great teams at the top and a bunch of other mediocre to awful teams.

Where are all the Pac-10 Quarterbacks?
They went east to Big 12 country. The conference of champions has a serious lack of quality quarterback play while the Big 12 is experiencing a boon unseen in conference history. The Oklahoma-Texas matchup was a classic Pac-10 game played under the guise of a Big 12 tilt. Missouri has the feel of a UCLA or Oregon with Nick Allioti running the defense. Oklahoma State, Kansas and Texas Tech all have quarterbacks that would compete for all-conference honors in other regions. It’s pretty obvious why the Big 12 is hands down the best conference in college football.

Best Guess at BCS Matchups
National Title Game
USC vs. Penn State
Note: SEC and Big 12 teams will falter against each other creating a default national title game

Orange Bowl
Pittsburgh (?) vs. Wake Forest (?)
Note: Yuck

Sugar Bowl
Alabama vs. BYU
Note: BYU is going to be an interesting opponent for whoever it faces

Fiesta Bowl
Notre Dame vs. Texas
Note: The Irish just have to finish above .500, right?  I actually think Boise State has a legitimate shot at this game. The likely scenario would have a team like Florida here with a Pac-10 or Big 12 runner-up in the Rose Bowl.

Rose Bowl
Should be: Oklahoma vs. Florida
Might be: Cal vs. Ohio State
Note: The Rose Bowl really wants the Pac-10 to play the Big Ten. It’s not right, but it might happen.

The first bye week of the season is finally here. For Oregon, it’s much needed. For me, well, it’s a chance to take stock of what we’ve seen so far.

Defense is Offensive
I am not a knee-jerk reacting type of fan when it comes to hiring and firing coaches. When you’re talking about someone’s livelihood, I think more caution is needed in discussing whether or not a coach should be let go. That said, I think the Nick Allioti era at Oregon needs to come to an end. The Ducks consistently field an offense with elite numbers. It rarely, if ever, happens with the defense. You can’t rely on the defense to win games and it always seems capable of losing them. This season’s underachievement isn’t entirely Allioti’s fault, but history doesn’t give him the benefit of the doubt he needs.

Going to Need a Quarterback
It’s no surprise that Oregon has been inconsistent on offense given the injuries at the position. There is probably not an offense at any level that can be at its most efficient with the lack of experience and continuity that Oregon has had. You would like to see the much-hyped defense carry the load, but that’s not going to happen. If Oregon wants to finish in the top three of this conference, they need to play better at quarterback, plain and simple.

Speaking of Quarterbacks…
Seeing Dennis Dixon on the sidelines during the UCLA game just brought pain. I can’t look at him and not get depressed. I think it’s what Nick Lachey must feel like when he sees Jessica Simpson. He had it all but now realizes all he has to show for it is a friendship with Matt Leinart and a crappy singing career.

The Running Game is Good
I really am all about positivity, I swear. And just to prove it, I have something nice to say. Oregon’s running game is very good. It struggled against USC, but otherwise has been dominant. There’s no reason that shouldn’t continue through the end of the season.

Chris Harper Will Be a Star
It doesn’t matter that Harper’s future isn’t at quarterback. I never thought it would be and am glad he’s transitioning into a more suitable role. He’ll be making plays for four years and could infuse some serious passion and energy into the stagnant wide receiver corps.

Much Appreciation For Those On the End
The play of Nick Reed and Will Tukuafu is going to get somewhat lost while the defense struggles. This is as good a pair of defensive ends as Oregon has had in its history (at least the history I know about).

The Season is Heading…
…toward complete disaster. Oregon’s 5-2 record and 3-1 standing in the Pac-10 comes at the expense of the easiest part of the schedule. The defense is breaking down and the offense can’t get any consistent play at quarterback. With games at Cal, home with Arizona and at Oregon State, things could get ugly down the stretch.

…toward no worse than the Holiday Bowl. At 3-1 in conference play, only one team (USC) has the Rose Bowl tiebreaker over the Ducks. The Pac-10 is down in a big way and there’s not one team left on the schedule that isn’t beatable. The defense is talented and will use the bye week to get back on track. The quarterback position will strengthen as more experience is gained.

Perhaps the truth is somewhere in the middle. I’ll put it all on the line and predict the rest the season in my next post.