Conveying an Unhealthy Obsession to the Masses
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Part II: Is it Better Than You Think? The Oregon Defense

Posted By: Nick, Off The Pond under Football @ 7:27 am | December 17, 2009 

Through the first half of the season, there was much talk of Oregon’s improved defense. They literally dominated teams by forcing turnovers, stoutly defending their end zone from intrusion and even at times scoring points of its own.

And then the last four games happened.

Opponents scored 51, 21, 41 and 33 points against a unit that had previously not given up more than 24 points in any one game. And that 24 included a defensive touchdown and a 19 yard drive following a turnover.

Through its first eight games, the Ducks came up with 20 turnovers. In the last four, Oregon forced its opponents to give it back just four times.

Competition has something to do with that. Outside of Boise State who plays against terrible competition, three of Oregon’s final four opponents also happened to be the top three offenses it faced all year. These were elite offenses that all averaged at least 29.7 points and over 400 yards per game.

With the exception of Toby Gerhart, it wasn’t the run defense that let down. In fact, Oregon held opponent’s rushing attacks significantly below their season averages (again, Gerhart excepted). The pass defense, however, slipped against the likes of Nick Foles, Sean Canfield and Andrew Luck. Foles and Canfield led the Pac-10 in passing this season.

Why is this significant? Ohio State is a decidedly run-oriented offense and averages almost 40 yards more per game on the ground than through the air. Terrell Pryor has been handcuffed and is nowhere near the threat throwing the ball compared to guys like Canfield and Foles.

Points Against Opp. Season Avg. Rushing Yards Against Opp. Season Avg. Passing Yards Against Opp. Season Avg. Total Yards Against Opp. Season Avg.
OSU, Stan., UA 41.67 32.77 154.67 178.67 290.33 244.13 445 422.80
Other Nine Games 17.56 26.56 117.33 143.89 173.56 225.28 290.89 369.17

The chart above would seem to indicate Oregon struggled only against the conference’s top three offenses which happen to be well-balanced units. The end of season slide seems to be more about quality of opposition than anything else. Is it an elite defense? No. But the Ducks have a lot of team speed and aren’t going up against an offensive juggernaut. One could easily see them control the Buckeyes much the way they did most of the schedule.

Throughout Nick Allioti’s history, his defenses have been especially good when they are able to focus on the run and force the opposition to pass. Can Ohio State win the game passing the ball? Probably not. Will they be able to move the ball through the air enough to keep Oregon on its heels? That carries a higher likelihood and could be a key to the game.

If Oregon can control what has become a formidable Ohio State rushing attack, and the Buckeyes can’t establish a passing game, Oregon’s “weaker” side of the ball may end up being the difference.

Part I: Is it Better Than You Think? The Ohio State Offense

Posted By: Nick, Off The Pond under Football @ 7:30 am | December 16, 2009 

The Rose Bowl is being featured as “irresistible force meets immovable object.” It’s Oregon’s offensive juggernaut against Ohio State’s defensive stalwart.

There is no denying each team flashes greatness on those two sides of the ball. But what about the other story, the one you could supposedly call “completely resistible force meets entirely movable object?”

The Buckeyes offense doesn’t garner headlines nor does the Ducks defense. But does that really mean each unit is as flawed as perception allows?

Today, we’ll look at the Ohio State offense and see where the danger lurks. Tomorrow, we’ll probe the Oregon defense and find out what the opposition should fear.

Part I: Is it better than you think? The Ohio State Offense

The book on Ohio State’s offense says conservative, plodding and unimaginative. And if that’s not the book, it’s at least perception. Coach Jim Tressel was roundly criticized for shutting down his offense in the waning moments of regulation against Iowa when there was more than enough time to drive for a winning field goal. It would have made Chip Kelly gag.

But it proved to be a winning formula on that Saturday and guaranteed Ohio State’s Rose Bowl berth.

To gain some perspective on Ohio State’s offensive prowess, let’s look at the numbers in the chart displayed to the right.

Offensive Ranking in Key Stats
Category Big Ten National
Scoring 5 47
Passing 11 106
Turnovers Lost T-1 28
Rushing Offense 3 19
Total Offense 9 71
Red Zone Offense 10 90
3rd Down Conversions 5 55
Sacks Against 4 43

The only thing that positively sticks out is Ohio State’s ability to run the football. This certainly fits the image of a conservative, plodding and unimaginative team, right?

The other thing that sticks out is decidedly negative. The passing offense is statistically bad. In fact, it’s among the worst in the nation. But then again, so is flashy, dynamic Oregon who ranks only slightly better in both yards per game and pass efficiency.

So flashy, dynamic Oregon is similar in style to plodding, conservative Ohio State? Well, not exactly. The Buckeyes score 8.4 fewer points per game and the curve of the season has shown Jeremiah Masoli’s numbers to dramatically improve while Terrelle Pryor has thrown fewer passes in the last three games than all but two others from the first nine contests.

But following that same curve, the Buckeyes have become far better at running the ball and, as such, have relied heavily on that part of the game. Since back-to-back midseason games in which it failed to reach 100 yards, Ohio State has rushed for at least 228 yards in the final five games.  They have dominated time of possession and were seriously threatened only once. The fewest rushing attempts in any of those games was 49.

And this five game stretch was not against the weaker part of the conference. The Buckeyes played both Penn State and Iowa during this run and finished against rival Michigan which regardless of current standings still means something.

Ohio State, over the last five weeks, has committed more to the run and less to the pass.

Ohio State, over the last five weeks, has committed more to the run and less to the pass

It would be surprising to see Ohio State have much success through the air given Pryor’s lack of numbers on the season and the team’s overall lack of confidence in that part of the game. But one could easily imagine an undersized Oregon Duck defensive line getting pushed around allowing the Buckeyes to control the clock as they have done over their last five games.

UO’s defensive line features only two players on the two-deep heavier than 270 pounds. Every Buckeye starter on the offensive line is at least 296 pounds. Tressel is surely looking at those numbers and seeing a possible opportunity that he can exploit.

If he finds success and OSU is able to get to 50 carries, which has worked so well lately, the Ducks could find the Buckeye offense to be more formidable than previously thought.

Rose Bowl Teams Greater Than Individual Parts

Posted By: Nick, Off The Pond under Football @ 7:43 am | December 15, 2009 

Sometimes, a game is greater than the sum of two team’s parts. Such is the 2010 Rose Bowl. How else do you explain the fact that both participants will be fielding one measly first team all-conference performer as voted on by conference coaches?

Big Ten all-Conference Players by Team
Iowa 7
Penn State 6
Wisconsin 3
Michigan State 3
Michigan 2
Minnesota 1
Ohio State 1
Purdue 1
Pac-10 all-Conference Players by Team
Oregon State 7
USC 5
UCLA 5
California 5
Stanford 3
Arizona State 1
Oregon 1

For Oregon, it’s tight end Ed Dickson. The Buckeyes can boast only of safety Kurt Coleman. That’s it. Five Big 10 and five Pac-10 teams have more all-conference representatives than these two league champions.

Forget all-Americans, Doak Walkers, Bronco Nagurskis or any other individual honors. These guys are fighting just to get recognition within their own conference.

The Rose Bowl isn’t a game so often lacking in star power. We’re talking hallowed grounds where the legends have walked. Vince Young, Reggie Bush and Matt Leinart are just the recent headliners.

Okay, sure, some of this is dramatic effect playing on (flawed?) conference voting that basically ignored the individual accomplishments of two champions. And I’m sure coaches Chip Kelly and Jim Tressel spent all of one minute caring about such perceived slights.

But it is odd, isn’t it?

Perhaps the matchup we were supposed to get was Oregon State vs. Iowa. After all, both conference runner-ups placed seven players on their respective first teams. That game would have featured 14 first team players. The one we are getting has two.

And with that said, would anyone choose that over Oregon and Ohio State? Okay, perhaps this audience is a highly biased sample, but I’m guessing there’s not a lot of clamoring for a Hawkeyes-Beavers matchup beyond these digital walls of Duck fandom.

Whatever slight fans, players and coaches may have at first felt can be safely buried beneath a rug of rose petals. These teams should carry the all-conference voting as a badge of honor where “team” matters and “individual” is a passing thought.

On January 1, it’ll be Ducks ‘n’ Bucks and that’s all you need to know. The pieces within those two team names are simply an afterthought.

Note: The Pac-10 includes three more special teams players on its all-conference teams. The Big Ten features both a media and coaches team. The Pac-10 uses only coaches’ selections. For a straight up comparison, the Big Ten’s media vote was not considered.

Ranking the Pac-10 – Week 1

Posted By: Nick, Off The Pond under Football @ 7:56 am | September 8, 2009 

It’s the first Pac-10 rankings for 2009. For extra perspective on each team, Off The Pond has dug deep into its sources and secured real quotes from around the conference.

1. Cal
Why: Dismantled Maryland
The Cal fanbase says: “Oh my God, we KILLED Maryland. We’ll probably roll over USC and everyone else. Why aren’t we getting votes for #1? Jahvid Best is the Heisman Trophy. We’re sooo goooooood!!!”

2. USC
Why: For the moment, they have to yield to Cal. Win at Ohio State and the top spot is rightfully theirs.
USC fans retort to Cal: “Hahahahahaha. Hahaha. Ha. Haha.”

3. Stanford
Why: They beat a glorified Pac-10 team while nobody else won a game that even remotely mattered.
Stanford fans: “We played a football game on Saturday?”

4. Arizona
Why: Week 1 competition in the Pac-10 was mostly terrible. Central Michigan was at least respectable and holding a team with a quality quarterback to six points is impressive.
Coach Mike Stoops: “Well, I thought when I ran 50 yards onto the field to yell at the ref, it was a real turning point. Our guys really responded.”

5. UCLA
Why: The rest of the teams either beat an FCS team or didn’t win, so it’s only by default for now.
L.A. Times Columnist TJ Simers: “Rick Neuheisel is a lying liar who lies. He told me they beat SDSU, but I don’t believe him.”

6. Oregon State:
Why: They get a penalty for playing Portland State, but deserve a bump for being better than ASU.
Moral, Righteous and Sanctimonious Oregon State fans: “Oregon is so classless and Blount is such a thug and Chip Kelly is a born loser. I’m sooo happy!”

7. Arizona State
Why: The last of the Pac-10 winners in week 1, but over lowly Idaho State.
Everyone: “We’ll check in at the end of September when your season actually starts.”

8. Oregon
Why: Worst played game this decade by the Ducks.
New coach Chip Kelly: “Why are those headlights so bright? I feel stuck. I can’t move! Will someone turn off those damn headlights?!?”

9. WSU
Why: They’re terrible.
Conversation between two Duck fans: Fan 1: “When do we play Washington State?” Fan 2: “Why?” Fan 1: “I want to know when we’ll get our first win.” Fan 2: “Oh, looks like Oct. 3.”

10. Washington
Why: Uh, they’re on the verge of a Pac-10 football record for most consecutive losses. Until that gets fixed, they’re #10.
Savior of Husky football coach Steve Sarkisian: “We try really hard now! We only lost by eight at home to such a powerful program. We feel really good about us. This is U-Dub football!

ESPN Surveys the Nation

Posted By: Nick, Off The Pond under Football @ 9:20 am | August 18, 2009 

ESPN polled 85 FBS players from around the country for a feature in the next ESPN the Magazine. It can also be found online, but you’ll need a subscription to view it. There were a few interesting items in the article relating to the Pac-10 and Oregon.

  1. The most overrated team in the nation according to those polled is Ohio State. I guess this doesn’t relate to the Pac-10, but it’s interesting because everyone knows it’s true and now we have more proof.
  2. 75 percent would like to see a playoff system. However, the Pac-10 players polled were in a 60% agreement that the bowl system is fine. Huh? The Pac-10, recipients of some of the biggest BCS injustices, thinks everything is hunky-dory? Did they poll any players at Cal, USC, Oregon, or Washington (circa 2000, you know, when they actually had winning seasons).
  3. From the, “this is really important department,” 81 percent of those polled notice cheerleaders. Their favorite? Oregon.
  4. Even more important, BCS players say they get hit on an average of 6.6 times per week. In the Pac-10, it’s 10.2. There’s just more lovin’ on the west coast, I guess.
  5. 49.4 percent say they have a gay teammate. In the Pac-10, though, that number was 70 percent. I’m guessing west coast attitudes are a little less naive and accepting of all lifestyles.