Through the first half of the season, there was much talk of Oregon’s improved defense. They literally dominated teams by forcing turnovers, stoutly defending their end zone from intrusion and even at times scoring points of its own.

And then the last four games happened.

Opponents scored 51, 21, 41 and 33 points against a unit that had previously not given up more than 24 points in any one game. And that 24 included a defensive touchdown and a 19 yard drive following a turnover.

Through its first eight games, the Ducks came up with 20 turnovers. In the last four, Oregon forced its opponents to give it back just four times.

Competition has something to do with that. Outside of Boise State who plays against terrible competition, three of Oregon’s final four opponents also happened to be the top three offenses it faced all year. These were elite offenses that all averaged at least 29.7 points and over 400 yards per game.

With the exception of Toby Gerhart, it wasn’t the run defense that let down. In fact, Oregon held opponent’s rushing attacks significantly below their season averages (again, Gerhart excepted). The pass defense, however, slipped against the likes of Nick Foles, Sean Canfield and Andrew Luck. Foles and Canfield led the Pac-10 in passing this season.

Why is this significant? Ohio State is a decidedly run-oriented offense and averages almost 40 yards more per game on the ground than through the air. Terrell Pryor has been handcuffed and is nowhere near the threat throwing the ball compared to guys like Canfield and Foles.

The chart above would seem to indicate Oregon struggled only against the conference’s top three offenses which happen to be well-balanced units. The end of season slide seems to be more about quality of opposition than anything else. Is it an elite defense? No. But the Ducks have a lot of team speed and aren’t going up against an offensive juggernaut. One could easily see them control the Buckeyes much the way they did most of the schedule.

Throughout Nick Allioti’s history, his defenses have been especially good when they are able to focus on the run and force the opposition to pass. Can Ohio State win the game passing the ball? Probably not. Will they be able to move the ball through the air enough to keep Oregon on its heels? That carries a higher likelihood and could be a key to the game.

If Oregon can control what has become a formidable Ohio State rushing attack, and the Buckeyes can’t establish a passing game, Oregon’s “weaker” side of the ball may end up being the difference.

The Rose Bowl is being featured as “irresistible force meets immovable object.” It’s Oregon’s offensive juggernaut against Ohio State’s defensive stalwart.

There is no denying each team flashes greatness on those two sides of the ball. But what about the other story, the one you could supposedly call “completely resistible force meets entirely movable object?”

The Buckeyes offense doesn’t garner headlines nor does the Ducks defense. But does that really mean each unit is as flawed as perception allows?

Today, we’ll look at the Ohio State offense and see where the danger lurks. Tomorrow, we’ll probe the Oregon defense and find out what the opposition should fear.

Part I: Is it better than you think? The Ohio State Offense

The book on Ohio State’s offense says conservative, plodding and unimaginative. And if that’s not the book, it’s at least perception. Coach Jim Tressel was roundly criticized for shutting down his offense in the waning moments of regulation against Iowa when there was more than enough time to drive for a winning field goal. It would have made Chip Kelly gag.

But it proved to be a winning formula on that Saturday and guaranteed Ohio State’s Rose Bowl berth.

To gain some perspective on Ohio State’s offensive prowess, let’s look at the numbers in the chart displayed to the right.

The only thing that positively sticks out is Ohio State’s ability to run the football. This certainly fits the image of a conservative, plodding and unimaginative team, right?

The other thing that sticks out is decidedly negative. The passing offense is statistically bad. In fact, it’s among the worst in the nation. But then again, so is flashy, dynamic Oregon who ranks only slightly better in both yards per game and pass efficiency.

So flashy, dynamic Oregon is similar in style to plodding, conservative Ohio State? Well, not exactly. The Buckeyes score 8.4 fewer points per game and the curve of the season has shown Jeremiah Masoli’s numbers to dramatically improve while Terrelle Pryor has thrown fewer passes in the last three games than all but two others from the first nine contests.

But following that same curve, the Buckeyes have become far better at running the ball and, as such, have relied heavily on that part of the game. Since back-to-back midseason games in which it failed to reach 100 yards, Ohio State has rushed for at least 228 yards in the final five games.  They have dominated time of possession and were seriously threatened only once. The fewest rushing attempts in any of those games was 49.

And this five game stretch was not against the weaker part of the conference. The Buckeyes played both Penn State and Iowa during this run and finished against rival Michigan which regardless of current standings still means something.

Ohio State, over the last five weeks, has committed more to the run and less to the pass

It would be surprising to see Ohio State have much success through the air given Pryor’s lack of numbers on the season and the team’s overall lack of confidence in that part of the game. But one could easily imagine an undersized Oregon Duck defensive line getting pushed around allowing the Buckeyes to control the clock as they have done over their last five games.

UO’s defensive line features only two players on the two-deep heavier than 270 pounds. Every Buckeye starter on the offensive line is at least 296 pounds. Tressel is surely looking at those numbers and seeing a possible opportunity that he can exploit.

If he finds success and OSU is able to get to 50 carries, which has worked so well lately, the Ducks could find the Buckeye offense to be more formidable than previously thought.

Sometimes, a game is greater than the sum of two team’s parts. Such is the 2010 Rose Bowl. How else do you explain the fact that both participants will be fielding one measly first team all-conference performer as voted on by conference coaches?

For Oregon, it’s tight end Ed Dickson. The Buckeyes can boast only of safety Kurt Coleman. That’s it. Five Big 10 and five Pac-10 teams have more all-conference representatives than these two league champions.

Forget all-Americans, Doak Walkers, Bronco Nagurskis or any other individual honors. These guys are fighting just to get recognition within their own conference.

The Rose Bowl isn’t a game so often lacking in star power. We’re talking hallowed grounds where the legends have walked. Vince Young, Reggie Bush and Matt Leinart are just the recent headliners.

Okay, sure, some of this is dramatic effect playing on (flawed?) conference voting that basically ignored the individual accomplishments of two champions. And I’m sure coaches Chip Kelly and Jim Tressel spent all of one minute caring about such perceived slights.

But it is odd, isn’t it?

Perhaps the matchup we were supposed to get was Oregon State vs. Iowa. After all, both conference runner-ups placed seven players on their respective first teams. That game would have featured 14 first team players. The one we are getting has two.

And with that said, would anyone choose that over Oregon and Ohio State? Okay, perhaps this audience is a highly biased sample, but I’m guessing there’s not a lot of clamoring for a Hawkeyes-Beavers matchup beyond these digital walls of Duck fandom.

Whatever slight fans, players and coaches may have at first felt can be safely buried beneath a rug of rose petals. These teams should carry the all-conference voting as a badge of honor where “team” matters and “individual” is a passing thought.

On January 1, it’ll be Ducks ‘n’ Bucks and that’s all you need to know. The pieces within those two team names are simply an afterthought.

Note: The Pac-10 includes three more special teams players on its all-conference teams. The Big Ten features both a media and coaches team. The Pac-10 uses only coaches’ selections. For a straight up comparison, the Big Ten’s media vote was not considered.

The Pac-10 bowl schedule has been finalized with one potential addition left that may send UCLA to to the Eagle Bank Bowl. Not sure if a game against Temple is what the Bruins had in mind when they declared USC’s dynasty to be officially over, but hey, it’s a start.

Pac-10 teams will be playing a pretty even slate of opponents for the most part. Oregon and Arizona both play teams ranked about the same. Oregon State and Cal will play up against higher ranked teams with better records. Stanford and USC have lower ranked opponents with similar records.

The matchups feature opponents from the Big Ten, Big 12, ACC and Mountain West. Despite the fact 10 SEC teams will play in a bowl game, none are against the Pac-10 because the conferences don’t have any contracted matchups. The Big East is also absent from the bowl schedule.

* Note: All times are pacific.

The Civil War count stands at 112. It’s about to move to 113. Through all those games, there have been just a handful that have truly mattered at a national level. In recent memory, a Pac-10 title has been at stake four times (that’s since football began in 1994). Before that, I’d guess the total was probably about four all time.

But really, the argument for “Biggest Civil War Ever” really comes down to one of two years: 2000 or 2009?

You can make an argument for either year. I had been thinking 2009 without question. Now that I look back at it, it’s a lot closer than I thought but two things ultimately make this the bigger game: (1) The winner goes to the Rose Bowl and (2) Media attention is infinitely more intense now.

In arguing for the the 2000 game, you could say both teams were more nationally prominent. The records were much better and Oregon was aiming at becoming one of a select few teams to ever go undefeated in Pac-10 play.

Either way, you can’t go wrong.

	Tale of The Civil War Tape
Category	2000		2009
UO/OSU Ranking *	5 & 8		8 & 16
Winner Eligible For Rose Bowl ¥	Both		Both
Combined Record Prior to Game	18-2		17-5
Combined Win Percentage	90%		77.2%
Worst Case Scenario for Losing Team	Holiday Bowl		Las Vegas Bowl
TV Broadcast	ABC Regional ??		ESPN HD National
Venue	Original Reser		Remodeled Autzen
Coaches ±	Erickson/Bellotti		Riley/Kelly
Star Players †	Chad Johnson/Joey Harrington		Jacquizz Rodgers/Jeremiah Masoli
Roses Being Waved From Our Car in Corvallis En Route To Game	A Bushel		None
Soul Crushing Defeats	1		No Freaking Way

* Using AP Rankings.
¥ Oregon State would have gone to the Rose Bowl had Washington lost later that day so technically, the Beavers had a shot going into the game.
± None of the four coaches had/has the cache that Dennis Erickson carried with him off of his Miami Hurricane fame and NFL experience.
† I think the 2009 game has more star power, if only because the media is more intense now. Chad Johnson wasn’t even close to a household name yet and Joey Harrington was a year away from a Times Square billboard.

The 113th edition of the Civil War is going to be built up as some sort of rags to riches success story. You’ll hear about two teams with little history of achievement.  The common refrain will be how this is the first time the game has been played in which the winner is guaranteed the Rose Bowl. No doubt, you’ll be reminded that Oregon State hasn’t been to Pasadena since 1965 while Oregon’s drought extends to 1995. A Rose Bowl winner can’t be found from Oregon since the 1940s. Need I go on?

They’re all cute stories and admittedly significant in a historical sense.

However,  there’s another narrative to follow, one where Oregon and Oregon State are shown to be among the conference’s elite since the turn of the century.

Since 2000, only USC has won more games than either program.

But with the Trojans finally out of the picture, it’s time the Ducks and Beavers got their due not as two teams coming up from history’s scrap pile, but as the premier programs they are in this conference.

This showdown isn’t a revelation of two teams with checkered pasts. It’s merely a culmination of a decade’s work  in which the state of Oregon has outperformed all but one team within the conference.

And the stakes are becoming common.

This will be the fourth time in 10 years that Oregon or Oregon State enters the Civil War with a chance to clinch the conference’s premier bowl bid.

In previous games where a conference title was on the line, each team has denied the other a spot in the Rose Bowl with the Beavers turning back Oregon in 2000 while the Ducks famously laid 65 points on a dream just one year ago.

This year, one has a guaranteed ticket to Pasadena and perhaps that means the stakes have never been higher. But it doesn’t mean these two teams haven’t been here before. Lately, it’s become something of an expectation.

I may still be in ICU but they can’t stop me from blogging. Some Sunday thoughts…

1. Let’s just get this out of the way. Arizona played a hell of a game. Oregon put up 44 on them, but I felt that was the best defense Oregon has faced all season. The Wildcats were disciplined and accounted for every movement Jeremiah Masoli made. The game was a battle and it took a gritty, championship performance for Oregon to leave with a win.
2. Arizona’s fans, on the other hand, failed miserably. Who gets ready to rush the field as the other team positions itself to tie the game? That was a “haven’t been there, haven’t done that” moment for the Wildcat faithful.
   

   The blog's facial expression has been stuck in the above form since roughly 9:05 p.m. on Nov. 21.

3. Nate Costa proved that you don’t have to be a regular player to make a huge impact. I’m comfortable making the claim that his work on the extra point to tie the game with 6 seconds left was the greatest hold in the history of football. And kicker Morgan Flint did a fantastic job of being patient and putting it through as Costa got the ball down. Neither player panicked under stressful circumstances and the Ducks were able to force overtime.
4. Jeremiah Masoli is on the verge of an invite to New York for the Heisman ceremony. How could he not be? Six touchdowns, 345 total yards of offense, a 15 play, 80 yard game winning tying drive and a stellar overtime all with a Rose Bowl on the line is the work of one of college football’s best players. He should be rewarded for the way he has played. Of course, the Civil War will dictate just how worthy he is of such an honor.
5. LaMichael James isn’t just a good runner, he’s also clutch. James wasn’t getting the carries throughout the second half, but when he got the call late in the game and in overtime, his determined effort and innate vision saved Oregon. He’s also now a Pac-10 record holder with the most rushing yards for a freshman in conference history.
6. There’s no doubt Oregon got lucky. They recovered early fumbles and Morgan Flint got a fateful forward bounce off the crossbar to tie the game in the fourth quarter. But as he lined up for that kick, I couldn’t help but think of the pressure kick they had him do in practice earlier this week (he made it). I had a soccer coach that always said, “Practice doesn’t make perfect. Perfect practice makes perfect.” In this case, the Oregon coaches put Flint in a position to feel confident on that kick. Preparation has a lot to do with who gets lucky.
7. Comment of the day goes to FOTB’s visiting friend/acting sister as she lay on the couch while Masoli scored the winning touchdown. As FOTB and the blog jump around hysterically, she calmly  – and seriously – said: “So the Ducks won, right?” Oregon football: it’s not for everyone.
8. Take Chip’s advice and allow yourself a day of celebration. A Civil War for the ages looms, but we can worry about that on Monday. Today, the blog is going to revel in the moment.

Once again, the blog is getting economical. You’d think the time saving would have resulted in better prognosticating, but alas, I suffered my worst week of the season. That’s okay, like Oregon in the desert, Saturday is all about redemption (well, that and playing for a Rose Bowl).

Last Week: 2-3
Season: 46-18

Arizona State @ UCLA
Hey, I was just kidding about that Wazzu pick last week. No wait, I was just trying to rally the Cougs to their only win of the Pac-10 season. No, that’s not it either. Did I really just pick Washington State because I thought they could win? Wow, that was dumb.

This week, I’m a Bruin believer. Both teams are pretty mediocre so it stands to reason the home team should win, right? A UCLA win would give the Pac-10 its seventh bowl eligible team.

The Pick…UCLA

Oregon State @ Washington State
Sorry Cougars, that was my one and only try with you guys. This week, your battle is simply to hold the Beavers under 50. Unlike some Oregon State players, I root for my rival in situations like this. What could be better than a Civil War for the Rose Bowl on national TV?

The Pick…Oregon State

California @ Stanford
Okay, so I thought Cal was cooked. I was certain Arizona would beat the Bears. Now, I’m just as sure that Stanford will win this game by at least two touchdowns. And I’d say more if not for the rivalry aspect. The Cardinal are just killing teams right now. They still don’t have much on defense, but who cares when you’re rolling up 50 every weekend?

The Pick…Stanford

FOTB Pick

Oregon @ Arizona
The Ducks would be 10-0 if this blog had been right every week. Once again, I’m putting some spectacular homerism on display. This game is not going to be easy. The Wildcats are tough at home and something about road games in Tuscon just scare the crap out of me. Maybe it’s that whole quarterback injury thing. I can’t handle another result like the one in 2007. It would end me. Please, Oregon, for the sake of my will to live, win this game.

The Pick…Oregon

Bonus Pick: Lee Corso Head Gear
That’s right, I’m guessing what another person will guess. Corso has donned the Duck head every time the College GameDay show has come to Eugene. Will he brush off his love of the Oregon mascot and succumb to the temptation of picking this GameDay virgin? Corso may have already shot his wad (hey! he said it, okay?) in Eugene but he’s got another one in him. It’s more Duck headgear for the Sunshine Scooter.

The Pick…Corso wears Donald and the UO immediately files an injuction against ESPN for using…oh wait, Disney owns them, it’s okay.

Damn you day job…don’t you know my true love is Oregon Duck blogging? How dare you distract me. Let’s catch up on the week so far.

What’s more fun? Reading about LeGarrette Blount or Getting Hit By Him?

I have a medical condition known as Blount Fatigue. I don’t want to hear about it anymore. Give him a carry. Or don’t. Just stop talking about it! Terrell Owens called and said he wants his attention back.

Like Ron Burgundy said on his ESPN audition, “That’s just dumb”

Am I reading this right? An Oregon State player would rather play in the Holiday Bowl than root for Oregon this weekend to set up the Beavers’ shot at a Rose Bowl? And people agree with him? I always root for whatever is best for the Oregon Ducks. Period. If that means I have to dress up with buck teeth, slap a flat tail on my ass and gnaw on some trees for a weekend, so be it (do with the visual what you will).

Masoli! Look out! It’s Arizona!

Did you hear? Arizona is where Duck quarterbacks go to die (or suffer season-ending injuries). The last two desert trips have resulted in Kellen Clemens and Dennis Dixon playing their last down of college football. No, really, it happened in both 2005 and 2007. Honestly, how many of these friendly reminder articles do I need to give you? It’s mostly The Oregonian’s fault. Apparently, they want whatever resilient part of me that soldiered on two years ago to finally die.

I Smell Roses

I was just reading about this viral video that didn’t “viral” it’s way to my laptop before the University of Oregon freaked out and shut it down. But Google is still my friend and while I get the UO’s point, you can’t stop the internet. It’s kind of big. In case you’re like me and just crawled out from under your rock, here it is courtesy of Yahoo Australia (sorry Angie, you should have let me be a marketing intern).

The race for the Rose Bowl is simpler in some ways, more complicated in others. For Oregon, it’s more clear than ever that winning out is the only realistic way to get the conference bid to Pasadena. In that sense, it’s simple. Just root for Oregon and all is well. Of course, a loss opens up a lot of ties and that’s where it gets messy. It might help if you brush up on your Rose Bowl Selection Procedures.

Teams Remaining in the Rose Bowl Hunt.

Note: USC got left in the race for the fact they can still win a six-way tie. It would be perfectly typical to see USC pull this one out.

Edit: Just found this link which does a superb job of breaking down the Rose Bowl race for all remaining Pac-10 contenders. Check that out if you have even more time to spare.

So Many Scenarios…

The lesson to be learned for the second straight week is that Oregon needs to win out. There is only one somewhat realistic scenario remaining that allows the Ducks to lose another game. In that scenario, Oregon still finishes alone in first. There is actually only one scenario I can find where Oregon ties for first and still gets the Rose Bowl bid. It involves OSU losing to WSU.

Note: No, WSU is not going to beat OSU this weekend and you can remove about half the scenarios on this chart as a result.

Note x2: These scenarios all involve Oregon and are not the end of the discussion. If Oregon loses out, a number of other combinations not involving the Ducks will play out.

Note x3: Arizona, despite the loss, still controls its own destiny.

The Week Ahead and Who to Root For

This isn’t hard. Pour yourself a beverage, root for the contenders to lose, pull for Oregon to win and everything will be oh so lovely.