It’s quite possible the Oregon defense may be, uh, good this season (excuse me, I hesitated). Holding Boise State to 19 points on the road is an ideal result. When you dig deeper and realize the defense was on the field for nearly 75% of game time and 67% of all plays (89-44 total plays in favor of Boise), it becomes a hell of an accomplishment.

In last year’s home loss to the Broncos, the Ducks defended 15 fewer plays and were on the field for 10 minutes less. They were torched for 37 points and 386 yards passing.

On Thursday, in a hostile (I guess) environment, Oregon managed to hold Boise State to 4.05  yards per play. For perspective on that number, only ASU (against Idaho St.), USC (against San Jose St.) and Arizona (against Central Michigan) had a better defensive average last weekend. Teams like Portland State, San Diego St. Maryland and Washington State all managed to rack up more yards per play against Pac-10 defenses.

To top it off, the defense came up with three turnovers and spent the entire second half putting the offense in position to succeed.

I know the arguments against this defense and I’ve made them outside the blog (hey, it’s all positivity this week). Too many 3rd and 7s where the DBs play soft coverage and give up easy conversions. Boise State’s turnovers were more self-inflicted than anything Oregon was doing. The Broncos missed two field goals.

In the end, though, the result was 19 points, a number every single one of us would anticipate being good enough for a victory. Ultimately, I have to ask the question, did the defense put the team in position to win? In this case, they did. If they can just get the offense to record a first down in the opening half, the Ducks might be on to something.

LeGarrette Blount talk will persist for the entire season. We’ll all make sure of that. However, for the Oregon Ducks, it’ll be their ability to put it behind them that may define the 2009 campaign.

Saturday, Purdue comes to town for the second of a two-game series. The Boilermakers, much like the Ducks against Boise, would love to avenge a home defeat from a year ago. For Oregon, it’s an opportunity to start anew and redefine not only the season’s promise, but the program’s newly minted reputation in the wake of their trip to Boise.

The first step was taken by Chip Kelly on Friday who swiftly punished Blount and removed him from the team for the season. It was a necessary move for the program, the university and blood-thirsty moralists everywhere.

If Oregon is to still make a run at the top of the conference, they’ll need to start with their play at the line of scrimmage. Oh, and everything else, too. Boise State was a debacle, plain and simple. I’m not convinced the problems are easily fixable, but I do know there are some talented players and dedicated coaches that are better than what they showed in the season opener.

On talent alone, Oregon should beat Purdue, but if the offense can’t establish a running game, make better decisions in the passing game and find better play-calling from its coaches, talent won’t matter. Defensively, improvement is needed, too. 3 and 7 to 3rd and 13 shouldn’t be so easy. Not being able to line up correctly is inexcusable. Tackling requires more than arms.

It’s almost like you scrap it and start all over. This is game 1. The goal doesn’t need to be changed, it just needs a shot of confidence. Regroup, work out the kinks (more like giant, complicated knots) and make that run for the roses.

I dug deep for the most optimistic headline possible. That’s the best I could do. Congratulations Jackson Rice, you are good. Now, for the rest of the story.

Sports will humble you fast. It’s a constant roller coaster and there are moments like Boise State, 2009. You can doubt what you saw a year ago, but there is no getting around what happened tonight. Boise State dominated Oregon. The argument will be left on the table for a later date whether or not that makes the Broncos a BCS-worthy team. Tonight, duck fans, you’ve got to take it on the chin like a blow from LeGarrette Blount. The team from the WAC controlled the line of scrimmage limiting Oregon to 31 yards rushing while racking up 164 of their own.

That was quite possibly the worst-played game by an Oregon team that I can remember (for young’uns like me, it all started in 1994). I’m staring right now at these stats: 8 points, 152 total yards, 17:28 time of possession and six first downs. Only the 2007 UCLA game featured a more inept offense, but that made sense following the loss of Dennis Dixon.

The worst part of it is how woefully unprepared the team looked. You listen to Kelly and you are impressed with his organization, his expectations and his cry for accountability. And then you see the results of game one under his watch and you can’t marry the two together. It doesn’t make sense. The defense was lost as they were constantly out of position. So much was made of Boise’s shifting and motion and being accountable for that, so what happened from paper to reality?

As for the offense, on exactly one drive, they used all the offensive weapons they are purported to have. LaMichael James, Ed Dickson and Jamere Holland all made plays. The result? Touchdown. Otherwise, it was run left, run right, force a throw to Jeff Maehl, punt the ball. It was an endless night of bad play calls and poor execution.

And then there’s the biggest story that doesn’t involve an idiotic fit of rage: Jeremiah Masoli. I said it a month ago somewhat tongue-in-cheek that Jeremiah Masoli had gone from underdog to overrated. His three game run to end the season perhaps created more hype than was deserved. After one game in 2009, there may be a legitimate quarterback controversy. He couldn’t make the right decisions on the read-option, his throws were terrible and on one play that resulted in an interception, he was so frozen, you were sure he’d been struck by Mr. Freeze (lame Batman reference, just go with it). He’s not done yet, but you can’t say it’s unequivocally his job to keep.

I don’t regret hyping Chip Kelly. I get a good feel from the way he talks about running a program. I think he gets it, but it’s become clear there’s a lot more to it than just having a plan. At the end of the day, it’s just 0-1, but it might be so much more. Being a head coach just go real, Chip. What do you do?

The wait is over. Let football begin.

Say goodbye to your wives, your girlfriends, your husbands, your boyfriends, your FOTBs. Put the home repair projects on ice. Postpone weddings as necessary. Employ the full arsenal of personal, sick and vacation days. Make sure your home theater system isn’t overly quiet. Get the new 60″ properly hooked. Work that groove into your couch. Stock the fridge with plenty of beer, barbecue something meaty and for God’s sake people…Chant her glory, Orrrrrregon!

Week 1 Picks

• PreNicktion: Oregon 41, Boise State 27 (Haven’t felt better about a game this big since 2007 which, of course, makes me extremely nervous)
• FOTB Prediction: All black uniforms because they should look like Warriors although she admits the stormtroopers is likely due to the blue turf.
• Bonus Pick: 1 failed attempt at a late hit by Boise State (forgot at first, but I got it in there)
  

Feel free to leave your prediction in the comments. I’ve seen a lot of confidence out of Duck fans so I’m expecting some bold prognostications. The person closest to the outcome wins absolutely nothing, so you’ll have that going for you.

Boise State has made the goal clear; it’s BCS or bust. And who can blame them? They have a marquee game at home on national TV to sell voters on the legitimacy of their BCS campaign. After Thursday, they get to disappear for the next 3 months and rack up wins against the likes of Louisiana Tech, Idaho and – yikes – UC Davis. There’s nary a top 25 team to be found for the rest of the year. They have a potential hazard in late November against Nevada if the Wolfpack hold up to expectations but we’re not exactly talking a make-or-break game against Cal or USC here.

What it all adds up to for Boise on Thursday is a mountain-sized load of pressure settling in Treasure Valley. The Broncos have just one early September night to complete an unplayed season and everyone knows it. After all, it’s the first ranked team to play a regular season game on “The Blue.” Ever. The hype is everywhere:

• Fans have been camping out for tickets.
• It seems like there is a daily police update on how to enjoy football and avoid injuring others at the same time.
• The local media has been covering it like The Beatles just discovered the U.S.
• Lawsuits have been filed against companies daring to sell unlicensed T-shirts.
• Reportedly, press will be filing in from ESPN, Sports Illustrated, the New York Times and other national media outlets.

So, yeah, they’re going a little nuts in the land famous for potatoes.

Add to the fact that the Broncos have Oregon’s full attention (to quote Ed Dickson from The Oregonian, “Ready’s not the word.”) and I’m guessing there’s a few knees shaking under cubicles in Idaho today.

While it’s not those knees that matter at kickoff, it’s impossible for the Boise players and coaches to not be feeling the immense pressure being put on them by its fans and media. Some teams implode when the light shines too bright. Others rise up to a level of greatness they may not have otherwise achieved. Which will it be for Boise? Pressure’s on.

That headline made my head spin, but I’m keeping it.

I made my contributing debut today on another site for an online magazine called Norman Einsteins (a nod to the famous Joe Theismann quote). It’s published monthly and I contributed a piece for the Civil War (let’s just say, my obsession with Markus Wheaton continues). There’s some great contributions from a variety of fan blog authors in the college football preview including a fun hypothetical featuring the Oregon and Boise State game. My Civil War effort is at the bottom of the page. Enjoy.

I played nice for a day. I pondered the reasons Boise State might win this football game on Thursday. Turns out, I probably should risk everything and put all I have on an Oregon win. It’s a lock. Here’s why.

1. Revenge. I normally don’t get too hyped on the revenge angle. It has failed to matter so many times before, but this is different. From everything I’ve read this preseason (and it’s a lot), I get the sense Oregon has been locked in on Boise for a long time. They’ve been a little loose with the lips which, given Oregon’s usual reserved nature, tells me this really means something to them.
2. Jeremiah Masoli. As much as Kellen Moore can be a catalyst to a Boise win, his Oregon counterpart at QB will have a bigger impact. Given Masoli’s rather well-mentioned absence from quarters 2-4 last year, he has a chance to be the biggest difference in this year’s game for the Ducks. The fact that Oregon is guaranteed to complete at least one pass in quarters 2 and 3 should help.
3. The home factor for Boise isn’t that big of a deal. Oregon has played in bigger, more intimidating venues and done fine. Sure, the Ducks may not face a more rabid set of fans per person, but there’s only so much 30,000 people can do.  You can’t tell me Reser Stadium in all its processed foods glory isn’t a tougher venue with a Rose Bowl on the line.
4. Oregon’s Offense. This offense is really going to click this year. I know that’s saying a lot after the previous two record-setting seasons, but the talent across the board is amazing. They have a vertical passing threat in Jamere Holland and multiple playmakers that will line up all over the field whether it’s LeGarrette Blount, Ed Dickson, LaMichael James or even Kenjon Barner. I’m not in the camp that is concerned about Oregon’s offensive line. Steve Greatwood is a proven coach that will have his big uglies operating at a high level.
5. Defensively capable (I think, but I probably shouldn’t have said so…I’m sure to regret this). I’m not going to say Oregon has a defense you can count on to win a game. There’s just no proof of that. However, if practice means anything, it’s possible the Ducks are bringing a defense that can get after it. It’ll be interesting to see if Boise State can tax the Oregon defense as efficiently as they did last year despite major losses at wide receiver and running back. (EDIT: Giving this some more thought, I’m not sure I trust Oregon’s defense to handle all the misdirection and motion of the Boise offense. I’m certainly not expecting Oregon’s defense to be the cause of victory. More likely, it will do just enough to let the offense take control.)

A year ago, we watched with horror as Boise State waltzed into Autzen Stadium and pantsed Oregon 37-32. This year, it won’t happen again because the Ducks have rediscovered the forward pass.

Given that coach Eddie Cochems, known as the “father of the forward pass,”  had Brad Robinson attempt the first legal forward pass in 1906, one might expect Oregon to have had a better grasp on the concept in the first three quarters of last September’s ill-fated game.

Brad Robinson attempted the first legal pass, then watched in horror as Oregon went all 1905 and ran the ball over and over again.

Yet, there they were, attempting a total of seven passes in the first three quarters of play. In that same span, they ran the ball 51 times (if my attempt to read the drive charts at ESPN is correct). Let’s see a 51 to 7 run/pass ratio…yeah, that probably shouldn’t work. And if you think it’s all because Boise landed a cheap knock-out blow to Jeremiah Masoli (see, I told you I could do this all week), consider that the lone touchdown drive of the first half for Oregon consisted of 13 running plays and one pass (the pass, consequently, being the one where Ellis Powers flagrantly…well, you get the idea).

The score in this time frame was 37-13, Boise.

At the start of the 4th quarter, Eddie Cochems started calling plays with Darron Thomas under center and the passing bonanza (25 passes, 3 rushes) yielded a 19-0 4th quarter rout of the Broncos.

Operating under the assumption that Boise will employ the late hit play at least twice (man, I can’t stop!), Oregon should still prevail because it has the luxury of four throwing quarterbacks on scholarship. Therefore, we can conclude that Oregon will easily win this game.

Of course, there is no evidence that Oregon’s defense has learned how to stop the play-action pass, but I’ll leave that to Nick Aliotti.

Note: Forward pass info is according to Wikipedia, which in academic circles is thought of as the ultimate truthful resource for knowledge.

If Oregon is going into Boise St. mode, then so is the blog. I got my Countdown-to-Kickoff wallpaper freshly downloaded from the Idaho Statesman (TGIT) and am ready to rumble. First up…let’s talk about that home record.

Apparently, Duck fans are supposed to be afraid of this 30,000 seat stadium with turf picked out by Mr. Rodgers (he was color blind, ok? Ah, forget it.).

Much is made of the Broncos 44 game home winning streak that dates to 2001 when they lost to Washington State (surprise, one of two BCS schools to play there in the same time frame). Let me ask. How would your school do if your home schedule looked like Boise’s? Most of these games on a BCS-caliber schedule would be considered a bye in between bouts with, say, Michigan and Cal.

It’s not all Boise’s fault. They have played some good teams (cowards) on the road that didn’t reciprocate with a return trip and I’m guessing they’d love to welcome some higher-caliber foes onto “The Blue.” Just the same, this is what the home record is built on and it’s hard to get anything out of that other than the Broncos do a very good job of beating teams they are supposed to defeat.

Of course, this is the very reason it’s a dangerous game for Oregon. These fans have had about all they can take of Aggies, Vandals and Wolfpack. The team itself gets to play one of these games a year. Combine the fans starvation for quality football and the team’s desire to prove themselves and the game becomes pretty much the biggest thing to ever hit the City of Trees (yeah, even bigger than WinCo Foods).

Even so, the environment won’t be anything Oregon hasn’t seen before and if they struggle in this game, it’ll have less to do with the stadium and more to do with some cheap shot from a Boise defensive player (yep, said it again. Probably gonna’ keep doing that all week. Still kinda’ bitter. ).

I was just reading Ken Goe’s Pac-10 football links at OregonLive.com and he mentions that the Ducks have been a little free with their words during camp while Boise has kept a lid on it.

Jeremiah Masoli has said he was “embarrassed” by the loss to Boise a year ago and Ed Dickson was quoted stating the Broncos rub him the wrong way. (EDIT: Can’t believe I originally forgot to add LeGarrette Blount’s overlooked take in Sports Illustrated when he said of Boise, “We owe that team an ass-whuppin’.” Nothing subtle about that.).

Now you have a few Ducks mentioning they’re not too pleased about the handshake idea (which is contrived absurdity by the way). It all adds up to a bunch of feathered football players that seem eager for this game. None of the words have been inflammatory, but I think the underlying meaning has been much deeper. It’s almost like they know they shouldn’t incite the Broncos but they just can’t stop an occasional sentence from slipping past the filter. You can almost see them pushing the words through clamped teeth as they try holding back.

Last year clearly didn’t sit well. It’s not just the loss, it’s the late hits, most notably the one that knocked QB Jeremiah Masoli out of the game. It’s been funny watching Boise and Oregon fans go back and forth on this for a year. You expect that from fans, but I get the feeling if the Duck players weren’t toeing the line and maintaining some pregame tact, they might jump right into the back-and-forth vitriol between the two fanbases.

It’s a different side of Oregon not usually seen in the Mike Bellotti years. The cool veneer may be getting replaced with a more aggressive temperament.