Seeing as how I reported Ed Dickson missing a couple weeks ago, figured I'd let Oregon know I found him.

Sunday is so much nicer after a win.

1. I’m young. I always operate under the assumption that football started in 1994. So when I say that was the best all-around performance in a regular season game by Oregon, it’s without a lot of perspective. Still, it’s hard to imagine the Ducks ever being more abusive to a top ten team.
2. Chin up Cal, you’re not the first to see dreams die at the hands of Autzen. Now, do you understand?
3. As one text I got during the game said, “anything you can do, we can do worser!” Every time Oregon made a mistake, Cal returned the favor whether it was a fumble or a five yard punt.
4. For those of you watching the game on TV, how excited are you for ABC’s new comedy lineup? Kelsey Grammer is a businessman turned family man in Hank! It’s hilarious!
5. Can we hire someone to permanently follow Jeremiah Masoli and berate him? I figure the more we heckle this guy, the better chance we have of willing him to a Heisman Trophy. Most of us need food and water to subsist. He apparently feeds only on your doubts.
6. Jahvid Best, you may formally transfer your Heisman Trophy application to LaMichael James. If you need the address, let me know.
7. Note: The previous two Heisman statements are jokes. Let’s not get carried away here.
8. Andy Ludwig should be forever banned from Autzen Stadium. Well, he’s welcome anytime as far as I’m concerned, but I would just leave him at home if I’m Tedford.
9. For those of you wanting some Nate Costa against Cal, wish granted.
10. Someone send John Canzano a schedule and ask him if he can find six wins for Oregon. Just sayin’.
11. Speaking of which, how good does the schedule look all of a sudden?
12. Uh, Washington fans, consider this our response to the loud barking you’ve been doing in the wake of your USC win. We’ll be ready.

If there is a diametric opposite in this universe to what we witnessed against Boise State, it was shown for four hours Saturday in Autzen Stadium. It was as dominant a performance as has ever been seen from an Oregon team and in drubbling Cal 42-3, the Ducks announced their return to the Pac-10 title race.

Of course, they never really left, but most had written them off after losing to Boise State. In ESPN’s College Pick ‘Em game, 93% of the nation picked Cal and with a high level of confidence. Everyone loved Cal, save for zany fans incapable of objective analysis (guilty). Oregon had even dropped in the rankings after beating Purdue and barely registered after a win over Utah.

None of that matters, but it shows just how far off the radar Oregon had gone. On the opening kick with Walter Thurmond III fumbling and getting injured, it looked like the nation might be right. Then, Oregon went three and out on the first offensive possession. Followed that up with a fumble, but on the same play, Cal’s Josh Hill fumbled the recovery back to Oregon and the Ducks ended up with a first down. From there, the snowball rolled downhill into a mountainous avalanche of  California dream busting.

But before you can compliment the offense on its coming out party, you have to recognize what the defense did. Because really, that’s what won this game. The inauspicious start could have gone bad quickly, but the defense buckled down and stopped any thoughts of Cal rolling up an early lead. No TJ Ward? Whatever. Walter Thurmond III’s not going to be available? Big deal. Without what would be considered Oregon’s top two defensive players, the Ducks put on an effort for the ages.

They gave up a measly three points on a drive that they forced Cal to a net of negative eight yards. The Bears never reached the 20 yard line. In fact, Cal’s best drive was stopped at the  Ducks 26 and ended in a missed field goal. In the end, the Bears were held to 45 points under their average. And Jahvid Best’s Heisman campaign? Buried.

Relish the moment for now. On the wild pendulum that is 2009 Oregon football, the expectations are back at a fever pitch. There are more highs and lows to come. Hopefully, more of the former and less of the latter.

You wanna’ know something? I’m a fan and if I don’t want to be logical, then dammit, I don’t have to be. So sets the stage for the rest of this post.

I could have done it. I could have said Cal over Oregon and nobody would blame me. Cal has its top running back, they don’t turn the ball over, they’re efficient. Basically, they’re everything Oregon is not. Of course picking Cal makes sense.

But I don’t want to.

It’s in Autzen Stadium and before some miracle of fumbles two years ago, Cal hadn’t won there since Oregon wore, well, what they’re going to wear on Saturday I guess. This isn’t their stadium. It’s not their fans. They’re not superior in talent. Who’s to say the Ducks can’t win this game?

Sure, it’s going to take a performance from Jeremiah Masoli that none of us have seen since I was dancing in the aisles of Qualcomm Stadium under the influence of an elixir called, damn, what the hell was I drinking that day? That was fun.

And yes, it’s going to take an even better performance from the defense than we saw against Utah. Can’t turn the ball over either. And better not have drive-killing penalties. Whew, this is starting to add up. Maybe I should rethink this pick.

“Snap out of it Nick!”

Huh, oh yeah.

I’m picking Oregon. That’s right, the Ducks!

And if they don’t win, well, does Chip do refunds on gambled wages?

With 25% of football played and Pac-10 play beginning, I’m going to channel my inner geek (let’s be real, it’s outer, too) and go inside the numbers to weed out some influential factors for the upcoming game. For the three of you that are still reading by the end, thank you for indulging me.

The obvious thing to do right now would be to say Cal is first in total offense, Oregon10th (and 9th in total defense) and there’s your ball game. Do you really believe the Ducks are that bad, though? The stats aren’t telling the whole story in this case.

For instance, Oregon has played Jeff Sagarin’s 4th, 45th, and 66th ranked teams. Cal has matched up against 49th ranked Minnesota, 93rd ranked Eastern Washington (an FCS school) and 98th ranked Maryland.

Offensively, Oregon’s numbers are skewed by a first week debacle and a struggling passing game while the defense has repeatedly been put in difficult situations by special teams and offensive miscues. For example, against Utah, three Ute drives started inside the Ducks’ 25 yard line, yet they yielded only 10 points.

Their red zone defense has already been tested 13 times while Cal has only had to defend near the goal line on four occasions. Oregon has respectably denied opponents any points on 3 of those red zone possessions.

In other words, it’s been an eventful three games for the Ducks and they are clearly better than what some stats are showing.

Still, I believe there are some numbers that are telling and will play a crucial role in the outcome of Saturday’s game.

• Getting off the field, keeping drives going. The defensive weakness so far has been ending drives on 3rd and 4th down plays. They let too many possessions continue. An obvious shortcoming has been passing situations of about six to 10 yards where the defense plays soft and lets receivers sit down in openings across the first down marker. The Ducks rank 7th and 10th in third and fourth down plays respectively while Cal has been highly efficient in converting and keeping drives alive 52% of the time. Conversely, Oregon has been horrible at keeping its drives alive. They have only eight third down conversions all year resulting in a 78% rate of failure to gain a first down when it matters most.
• Crowd Control. Turnover margin and Cal’s rushing game could instantly mitigate Oregon’s home field advantage. While Oregon has been proficient in securing turnovers (8 takeaways), they’ve given it away just as much (8 turnovers). Cal, on the other hand, has a 7 to 1 takeaway ratio on the season. The Bears are also dominate in the rushing game averaging over 250 yards/game and 6 yards/carry with an astounding 15 TDs on the ground. With Oregon’s propensity to get dominated in time of possession, a dominate opposing running game could spell disaster.
• Gotta’ Be Special. Special teams could be an interesting wild card. Cal hasn’t shown much success in the return game. They rank in the bottom half for both kickoff and punt return average and are ninth in kickoff coverage. The only stat Cal ranks well in is net punting. Oregon on the other hand has been very good returning the football. Third downs and turnovers are more important, but if Oregon controls those two elements and has a decided edge in field position throughout the game, the upset could be on.

Say it with me, now. “I trust the Oregon defense to win this game.” Do you feel better? No? Neither do I.

But the concept is true. The Duck’s defense has rarely been so important to the outcome of a single game. For all the time I’ve been following Oregon football (and it’s not that long), each Saturday was about the offense being dominant enough to win. If they weren’t, well, they have lost 35 games this decade (I kid defense, I kid).

The offense in three games has been all over the map. Poor passing, poor running and poor blocking have plagued the team. It’s not always at the same time, but there’s something fundamentally missing from the the scoring side of the ball right now. After all, the offense is only averaging 18.67 points per game (excludes defense and special teams scores). Putting it mildly, this isn’t what we expected.

So while the youthful offense grows into something more formidable, it’s up to the defense to carry the load. And from what I’ve seen, I think they can. Against No. 6 Cal, though, they face their biggest test.

The Bears are first in the Pac-10 in total offense and scoring, but beyond numbers you mostly should be worried about Cal’s running game. The Bears will win or lose this game on the performance of Jahvid Best and backup Shane Vereen. Jeff Tedford’s offenses have always been about the running game first. He’s had a 1,000 yard back in seven straight seasons and it was the same when he was at Oregon.

The Bears ability running the ball can completely quiet a raucous crowd. There’s nothing more frustrating for a fan and opposing team than a dominant rushing attack that monopolizes the ball and the clock. And in doing so, Cal can control Oregon’s daunting home field advantage leaving the Ducks in a position where the offense has to perform to levels of late 2008 to stay in the game.

The defense doesn’t have to make spectacular plays – Cal only has one turnover on the season – but it has to get themselves off the field. They’ve done a good job this year of shutting down the big play, but have had a tendency to stay out there for prolonged drives at times by giving up third down conversions too easily. The more Cal has the ball in this game, the more Oregon’s offense will have to maximize it’s minimal possessions. From what we’ve seen so far, that won’t work.

So go ahead, defense. It’s your coming out party and everyone’s invited. Make it one we won’t forget.

Warning: If you lack a sense of humor and cannot understand sarcasm, please exit and learn.

It’s a big game Saturday. And it’s not a natural rival. In fact, I always kinda’ liked Cal. But that won’t do. Friends we cannot be. We need to manufacture some animosity to get this thing going. So with that said, I invite you to claim your disdain for Oski. I’ll get it started. And Cal fans, feel free to chime in with your own hate. You know, Nike, uniforms and the other usuals.

Before we get started, though, let’s all have a pre-post e-handshake so we can show the NCAA we’re all about sportsmanship. Agreed? Ok, on with the hate.

• I hate that when it rains in your stadium, I have to walk through three feet of standing water to get to the port-o-potty.
• I hate that you had to steal half of Eugene to build a football program.
• I hate that we can’t beat you anymore.
• I hate that your Heisman Trophy candidate (Jahvid Best) is still in the running while ours (LeGarrette Blount & Jeremiah Masoli) are, well, not.
• I hate that you think you can win with Andy Ludwig, a man personally responsible for Oregon’s worst stretch of football in the last 15 years.

Come on now. Let out the vitriol that lies within for the blue and gold. I lack a big enough readership to generate an adequate amount of hate, so do you hear me CaliforniaGoldenBlogs? AddictedtoQuack? Care to hate?

I guess Andy Ludwig scripts his plays that he uses specifically for games in Autzen Stadium. Somehow, I managed to get ahold of a copy of the script. It’s eerily similar to an era stretching from 2002-04. Frankly, I don’t see the benefit in the plan, but Ludwig’s been using it for so long, who am I to argue? (Go easy on the guy that put this together. I was told Adobe Flash isn’t his strength).

It’s officially football season. No offense to Boise St., Purdue or Utah, but the games matter now. The non-conference results are ancient history. Sure, it would be nice to be 3-0, but the more important stat right now is the zero conference losses. Already, USC and Washington State have their first Pac-10 loss putting each team behind in the run for the roses (well, I guess the Trojans don’t care about that bowl and WSU still has eight more losses to go).

Forget what you’ve seen so far, the Ducks season starts Saturday. And it starts in a big way against a team that has Oregon’s number.

The green and yellow (and steel, black, white and chrome) is in the midst of a three game losing streak against the Cal Bears. The last win came at home in 2005. In that time, the Ducks were blown out in prime time on ABC, lost by about an inch the following year and then slogged through a rainy affair a year ago and lost by 10. In other words, each game has been completely different, but with the same end result, a big mark in the wrong column of the standings.

• 2006: It was “Rich, Cool, and 4-0 – The Sequel” as the Ducks came in undefeated with a fancy ranking, but suffered a blowout loss and saw their season eventually wilt into a 7-6 debacle.
• 2007: The two teams again met each other highly ranked with ESPN College GameDay in town. After Cameron Colvin fumbled on the 1 yard line near the end of regulation, a loss was assured. At the time, the defeat was a devastating setback to what was beginning to look like a possible national title run (and the rest of that story is unspeakable).
• 2008: Cal would be Oregon’s final loss of the season, but it was the one that ensured the Ducks would not contend for a BCS bowl berth.

For three straight years now, Cal has had a lot to say about the fate of Oregon’s season, even if the Bears only finished ahead of the Ducks in the standings once in 2006. Right now, this game isn’t about national titles or BCS Bowls – at least, not for Oregon as they are on week three of “Project Image Reclamation.” A win Saturday would all but erase any remaining memories of Boise State and put the program back in control of a destiny that once seemed so bright.

I’m really smart and to prove it, here’s exactly what will happen in Oregon’s remaining five games. There’s no reason to doubt me – everything below is future fact.

10/25 – Oregon @ Arizona State
Both teams get two weeks to prepare. The Sun Devils have lost four in a row and look like a mess while Oregon has not recently played well. The Ducks have had ASU’s number the past two years and with a week to prepare against a team that seems to have lost its way, expect a win.

Oregon 24, ASU 17

11/1 – Oregon @ Cal
This was supposed to be the last of a brutal four game stretch with three road games against the cream of the conference. USC was as difficult as predicted, but the other two, at ASU and at Cal, just aren’t what we though they were. The Bears are ranked now and 2-0 in conference, but appear very beatable. The blog is making its one and only live appearance at a Duck game with this one and would appreciate a victory. Not seeing it, though.

Cal 38, Oregon 27

11/8 – Stanford @ Oregon
Well, look who’s tied with the Ducks for second in the conference right now. It’s the Cardinal! Stanford is 3-1 with wins over Washington, Oregon State and Arizona. Their blowout loss to Arizona State doesn’t make much sense, but they appear to be a legit threat on any given Saturday. They should be favored to win their next two games and come into this game at 5-1, but they can’t win at Autzen.

Oregon 45, Stanford 23

11/15 – Arizona @ Oregon
The Wildcats are tough to figure out. Statistically, you’d think they are undefeated, yet they sport losses to New Mexico and Stanford. They have handled Oregon two years in a row and blew out Oregon at Autzen Stadium in 2006. Revenge is on the mind of these Ducks for last year’s soul-crushing defeat. Ducks win despite giving up 723 yards in the air to Willie Tuitama.

Oregon 70, Arizona 63

11/29 – Oregon @ Oregon State
Here it is, the Civil War. Oregon hasn’t won at Reser Stadium in the processed foods era of bean dips and potato salads. This time, the Ducks act like its Parker Stadium again and get the win to avenge the home loss a year ago. You may think it an unlikely victory, but what you don’t know is the cosmic forces working against the Beavers. I have attended the last four games in Corvallis and always had two tickets with my name on them if needed from Beaver-loving mom and dad. This year, I’ve been notified that these tickets are going to another beneficiary. My absence is basically a guaranteed Oregon win. Dad, this loss is on you.

Oregon 22, Oregon State 21 as the Ducks convert a two point play with no time left on the clock.