1. This is Supwitchugirl performing music with the Duck. It’s also the back of someone’s head. I admit to conflicting emotions of “Sweet, that’s those guys from the video!” and “Wow, why am I so enamored with college kids?”

Andohbytheway, please take a moment to appreciate the photography. It’s a beautiful white, don’t you think?

A win is a win is a win is a win is a win. Should I go on?

1. Wait, you thought this was going to be easy? EASY!? Well,  yeah, me too. Look at all the teams with one loss right now. Some of them look unbeatable. Wisconsin goes for 83 points? Ohio State running down everyone they play? LSU with the quality wins it has? All good teams, but somewhere along the way, each of them got beat. Why? Because it’s freaking hard to go undefeated. A 15-13 win over Cal does not bother me at all. In fact, I’m ecstatic. This isn’t just a rare season, it’s completely unprecedented. Who cares if you have to win a close one?

2. Didn’t like going for it on 4th down? I say go for it again! Chip Kelly went for it on two fourth downs in his own half of the field on the game’s first drive. Some are questioning the call after the second attempt failed. I completely disagree. You’re asking Chip to change a coaching philosophy that is largely responsible for a 10-0 record. Sometimes, it fails, but if you question going for it on fourth down, you should also question two point conversions and so many other risky moves Chip has made.

3. Another team has the blueprint, oh my! Cal defensive back Chris Conte said “The rest of the Pac-10 can take notice,” about the Bears effort to slow Oregon’s offense. Ok, I guess someone should tell Chip, yeah?

4. Missed field goals at the start of the fourth quarter do not decide games. Oregon still had an entire quarter to make up for it had they gone down 16-15. Sure, it might have become the difference, but there was still too much game left to play. In my opinion, the two-point conversion was a much bigger deal. If it fails, Cal kicks two extra points and wins by one. But that’s an “if” game, too and each action throughout a game influences the next action. Butterfly effect, ya’ know?

5. Might want to tone down the injury booing, Duck fans. Then again, if coaches are going to be that blatant with a bush league tactic, I guess you get what you get.

6. Finally, Darron Thomas proves you can’t win ‘em all while breaking in a sophomore quarterback. Or not. This was why we all tempered our enthusiasm for the 2010 season, right? It’s hard enough for a veteran quarterback to go undefeated so forget about it with a first-time starter. And yet, in Thomas’ worst game of the season, the one we all expected at some point on the road, the team rallied and found a way to win via special teams and defense.

7. The offensive line sure didn’t help. It was hard to fairly judge performances from the end zone in a stadium that runs replays with the frequency of a lunar eclipse. But it was still possible to tell Thomas was under more pressure than usual and running lanes were nonexistent. I’m no connoisseur of offensive line play and won’t pretend to have the answers, but a week off will hopefully result in some corrections against Arizona, another good defensive team.

8. Rankings aren’t based on week-to-week results. Most people get this and that’s why the Ducks maintained their ranking in the polls. But some voters dropped Oregon and that’s unfair. How do you penalize a team for winning on the road in a season that has been otherwise spectacular? Opinions seem to be swayed fairly easily without regard to the whole season. Not that it matters or anything.

9. The blog finally contributed to a win outside of writing really important* words during the week. Don’t believe me, just ask quarterback Brock Mansion. He said after the game that crowd noise was a factor on the missed field goal in the fourth quarter. That’s not how home field advantage is supposed to work.

10. Oh, by the way, CLIFF HARRIS! That is all. Happy bye week.

*No, seriously. Every word here is of critical importance. Pay attention.

This looks like a titanic Pac-10 showdown when you do it this way. Cal even has the edge due to superior defensive statistics.

Stats courtesy of cfbstats.com

I can explain Cal's season. This coaching career...no idea how that happens.

There is nothing more perplexing in all of college football than the California Bears. Perhaps the career arc of Lane Kiffin, but that’s not up for debate right now.

Cal is essentially fielding two entirely different teams this season. You have the home Bears and road Bears. One team looks like a national title contender, the other slightly better than New Mexico.

Home Bears are 4-0 and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 38.8 points per game. Road Bears are 1-4 and losing by an average margin of 15.4 points per game.

It’s just your average 54.2 point differential. If I was a Cal fan, this would leave me in therapy, but that’s their problem to deal with.

The competition partly explains the wild swing in performance. Cal’s road opponents are a combined 26-19 while teams they play at home are 15-21. None of the teams on the home schedule have a winning record.

Yes, it’s reasonable to expect less success against that road schedule, but a difference in margin of 54.2 points? No way.

Cal is clearly a much better team at home. For Oregon, that means the level of competition is better than the Bears’ 5-4 record would indicate. After all, home Bears lead the nation in scoring defense and are second in scoring offense.

One could say that with quarterback Kevin Riley out for the season, whatever Cal had going at home is gone. After all, only Andrew Luck had a better rating at home among Pac-10 QBs.

But there’s still that defense. Home Bears only give up 8.5 points per game. Since 2007, no team has been tougher on Chip Kelly’s offense than Cal.

Am I predicting home Bears to win? Of course not. But a competitive game is at least as reasonable as “Oregon 18, Washington 13″ in the third quarter and that actually happened.

California Bears Home/Road Splits

Courtesy of cfbstats.com

Seeing as how I reported Ed Dickson missing a couple weeks ago, figured I'd let Oregon know I found him.

Sunday is so much nicer after a win.

1. I’m young. I always operate under the assumption that football started in 1994. So when I say that was the best all-around performance in a regular season game by Oregon, it’s without a lot of perspective. Still, it’s hard to imagine the Ducks ever being more abusive to a top ten team.
2. Chin up Cal, you’re not the first to see dreams die at the hands of Autzen. Now, do you understand?
3. As one text I got during the game said, “anything you can do, we can do worser!” Every time Oregon made a mistake, Cal returned the favor whether it was a fumble or a five yard punt.
4. For those of you watching the game on TV, how excited are you for ABC’s new comedy lineup? Kelsey Grammer is a businessman turned family man in Hank! It’s hilarious!
5. Can we hire someone to permanently follow Jeremiah Masoli and berate him? I figure the more we heckle this guy, the better chance we have of willing him to a Heisman Trophy. Most of us need food and water to subsist. He apparently feeds only on your doubts.
6. Jahvid Best, you may formally transfer your Heisman Trophy application to LaMichael James. If you need the address, let me know.
7. Note: The previous two Heisman statements are jokes. Let’s not get carried away here.
8. Andy Ludwig should be forever banned from Autzen Stadium. Well, he’s welcome anytime as far as I’m concerned, but I would just leave him at home if I’m Tedford.
9. For those of you wanting some Nate Costa against Cal, wish granted.
10. Someone send John Canzano a schedule and ask him if he can find six wins for Oregon. Just sayin’.
11. Speaking of which, how good does the schedule look all of a sudden?
12. Uh, Washington fans, consider this our response to the loud barking you’ve been doing in the wake of your USC win. We’ll be ready.

Of course, they never really left, but most had written them off after losing to Boise State. In ESPN’s College Pick ‘Em game, 93% of the nation picked Cal and with a high level of confidence. Everyone loved Cal, save for zany fans incapable of objective analysis (guilty). Oregon had even dropped in the rankings after beating Purdue and barely registered after a win over Utah.

None of that matters, but it shows just how far off the radar Oregon had gone. On the opening kick with Walter Thurmond III fumbling and getting injured, it looked like the nation might be right. Then, Oregon went three and out on the first offensive possession. Followed that up with a fumble, but on the same play, Cal’s Josh Hill fumbled the recovery back to Oregon and the Ducks ended up with a first down. From there, the snowball rolled downhill into a mountainous avalanche of  California dream busting.

But before you can compliment the offense on its coming out party, you have to recognize what the defense did. Because really, that’s what won this game. The inauspicious start could have gone bad quickly, but the defense buckled down and stopped any thoughts of Cal rolling up an early lead. No TJ Ward? Whatever. Walter Thurmond III’s not going to be available? Big deal. Without what would be considered Oregon’s top two defensive players, the Ducks put on an effort for the ages.

They gave up a measly three points on a drive that they forced Cal to a net of negative eight yards. The Bears never reached the 20 yard line. In fact, Cal’s best drive was stopped at the  Ducks 26 and ended in a missed field goal. In the end, the Bears were held to 45 points under their average. And Jahvid Best’s Heisman campaign? Buried.

Relish the moment for now. On the wild pendulum that is 2009 Oregon football, the expectations are back at a fever pitch. There are more highs and lows to come. Hopefully, more of the former and less of the latter.

FOTB Prediction: Not this week.  The retro unis are in effect, thereby taking all the fun out of guessing the uniform combination.

You wanna’ know something? I’m a fan and if I don’t want to be logical, then dammit, I don’t have to be. So sets the stage for the rest of this post.

I could have done it. I could have said Cal over Oregon and nobody would blame me. Cal has its top running back, they don’t turn the ball over, they’re efficient. Basically, they’re everything Oregon is not. Of course picking Cal makes sense.

But I don’t want to.

It’s in Autzen Stadium and before some miracle of fumbles two years ago, Cal hadn’t won there since Oregon wore, well, what they’re going to wear on Saturday I guess. This isn’t their stadium. It’s not their fans. They’re not superior in talent. Who’s to say the Ducks can’t win this game?

Sure, it’s going to take a performance from Jeremiah Masoli that none of us have seen since I was dancing in the aisles of Qualcomm Stadium under the influence of an elixir called, damn, what the hell was I drinking that day? That was fun.

And yes, it’s going to take an even better performance from the defense than we saw against Utah. Can’t turn the ball over either. And better not have drive-killing penalties. Whew, this is starting to add up. Maybe I should rethink this pick.

“Snap out of it Nick!”

Huh, oh yeah.

I’m picking Oregon. That’s right, the Ducks!

And if they don’t win, well, does Chip do refunds on gambled wages?

The obvious thing to do right now would be to say Cal is first in total offense, Oregon10th (and 9th in total defense) and there’s your ball game. Do you really believe the Ducks are that bad, though? The stats aren’t telling the whole story in this case.

For instance, Oregon has played Jeff Sagarin’s 4th, 45th, and 66th ranked teams. Cal has matched up against 49th ranked Minnesota, 93rd ranked Eastern Washington (an FCS school) and 98th ranked Maryland.

Offensively, Oregon’s numbers are skewed by a first week debacle and a struggling passing game while the defense has repeatedly been put in difficult situations by special teams and offensive miscues. For example, against Utah, three Ute drives started inside the Ducks’ 25 yard line, yet they yielded only 10 points.

Their red zone defense has already been tested 13 times while Cal has only had to defend near the goal line on four occasions. Oregon has respectably denied opponents any points on 3 of those red zone possessions.

In other words, it’s been an eventful three games for the Ducks and they are clearly better than what some stats are showing.

Still, I believe there are some numbers that are telling and will play a crucial role in the outcome of Saturday’s game.

• Getting off the field, keeping drives going. The defensive weakness so far has been ending drives on 3rd and 4th down plays. They let too many possessions continue. An obvious shortcoming has been passing situations of about six to 10 yards where the defense plays soft and lets receivers sit down in openings across the first down marker. The Ducks rank 7th and 10th in third and fourth down plays respectively while Cal has been highly efficient in converting and keeping drives alive 52% of the time. Conversely, Oregon has been horrible at keeping its drives alive. They have only eight third down conversions all year resulting in a 78% rate of failure to gain a first down when it matters most.
• Crowd Control. Turnover margin and Cal’s rushing game could instantly mitigate Oregon’s home field advantage. While Oregon has been proficient in securing turnovers (8 takeaways), they’ve given it away just as much (8 turnovers). Cal, on the other hand, has a 7 to 1 takeaway ratio on the season. The Bears are also dominate in the rushing game averaging over 250 yards/game and 6 yards/carry with an astounding 15 TDs on the ground. With Oregon’s propensity to get dominated in time of possession, a dominate opposing running game could spell disaster.
• Gotta’ Be Special. Special teams could be an interesting wild card. Cal hasn’t shown much success in the return game. They rank in the bottom half for both kickoff and punt return average and are ninth in kickoff coverage. The only stat Cal ranks well in is net punting. Oregon on the other hand has been very good returning the football. Third downs and turnovers are more important, but if Oregon controls those two elements and has a decided edge in field position throughout the game, the upset could be on.

But the concept is true. The Duck’s defense has rarely been so important to the outcome of a single game. For all the time I’ve been following Oregon football (and it’s not that long), each Saturday was about the offense being dominant enough to win. If they weren’t, well, they have lost 35 games this decade (I kid defense, I kid).

The offense in three games has been all over the map. Poor passing, poor running and poor blocking have plagued the team. It’s not always at the same time, but there’s something fundamentally missing from the the scoring side of the ball right now. After all, the offense is only averaging 18.67 points per game (excludes defense and special teams scores). Putting it mildly, this isn’t what we expected.

So while the youthful offense grows into something more formidable, it’s up to the defense to carry the load. And from what I’ve seen, I think they can. Against No. 6 Cal, though, they face their biggest test.

The Bears are first in the Pac-10 in total offense and scoring, but beyond numbers you mostly should be worried about Cal’s running game. The Bears will win or lose this game on the performance of Jahvid Best and backup Shane Vereen. Jeff Tedford’s offenses have always been about the running game first. He’s had a 1,000 yard back in seven straight seasons and it was the same when he was at Oregon.

The Bears ability running the ball can completely quiet a raucous crowd. There’s nothing more frustrating for a fan and opposing team than a dominant rushing attack that monopolizes the ball and the clock. And in doing so, Cal can control Oregon’s daunting home field advantage leaving the Ducks in a position where the offense has to perform to levels of late 2008 to stay in the game.

The defense doesn’t have to make spectacular plays – Cal only has one turnover on the season – but it has to get themselves off the field. They’ve done a good job this year of shutting down the big play, but have had a tendency to stay out there for prolonged drives at times by giving up third down conversions too easily. The more Cal has the ball in this game, the more Oregon’s offense will have to maximize it’s minimal possessions. From what we’ve seen so far, that won’t work.

So go ahead, defense. It’s your coming out party and everyone’s invited. Make it one we won’t forget.

It’s a big game Saturday. And it’s not a natural rival. In fact, I always kinda’ liked Cal. But that won’t do. Friends we cannot be. We need to manufacture some animosity to get this thing going. So with that said, I invite you to claim your disdain for Oski. I’ll get it started. And Cal fans, feel free to chime in with your own hate. You know, Nike, uniforms and the other usuals.

Before we get started, though, let’s all have a pre-post e-handshake so we can show the NCAA we’re all about sportsmanship. Agreed? Ok, on with the hate.

• I hate that when it rains in your stadium, I have to walk through three feet of standing water to get to the port-o-potty.
• I hate that you had to steal half of Eugene to build a football program.
• I hate that we can’t beat you anymore.
• I hate that your Heisman Trophy candidate (Jahvid Best) is still in the running while ours (LeGarrette Blount & Jeremiah Masoli) are, well, not.
• I hate that you think you can win with Andy Ludwig, a man personally responsible for Oregon’s worst stretch of football in the last 15 years.

Come on now. Let out the vitriol that lies within for the blue and gold. I lack a big enough readership to generate an adequate amount of hate, so do you hear me CaliforniaGoldenBlogs? AddictedtoQuack? Care to hate?