In light of the events occurring around midday on November 7, the blog is making some new promises. Can they be kept? Probably not, but I’ll try for at least a day.

This blog will…

• …Never again question the enlightened wisdom of San Jose Mercury News columnist Jon Wilner. He may be a traffic-baiting, uh, (insert word for prostitute), but he was dead on regarding Stanford vs. Oregon. I refuted all ten of his points on why Stanford would win and in hindsight, he went 8 for 10. Even his silly mention of the 2001 disaster seemed spot on given that the score of that game was 49-42. This year? 51-42. My sincere apologies go out to Mr. Wilner, a man whose last name is now synonymous with a curse word in my circle.
• …Stop caring about Iowa, TCU, Cincinnati, Boise State, Florida, Alabama and Texas. Cheered like hell for Louisiana Tech Friday night. Was ecstatic when Northwestern beat Iowa. Then found out I just wasted a week worrying about irrelevant teams. Not so interested in the national picture anymore. Also not all that into writing complete sentences.
• …Call all voters who place USC ahead of Oregon hypocrites. Many voters explained to The Oregonian’s John Hunt last week that they could never put Oregon ahead of Boise State because of the head-to-head result. Now, I’ll wonder about their logic when the Trojans jump Oregon in the polls on Sunday.
• …Completely focus on the Rose Bowl. Never should have thought about anything but it. The Pac-10 is a lot more wide open now and we’ll get into that soon enough. Oregon still has some serious advantages, but for now, the important take-away is that the Ducks and Arizona both control their own destiny. The rest need help. With three games to go, you can’t ask for much better.
• …Wonder how Jeremiah Masoli ended up with at least 500 relatives. I need to eat a lot more if I want to get into that clan.
• …Not explicitly blame Nick Aliotti, but it won’t necessarily trust him either. My final conclusion on the defense is that Stanford did a hell of a job executing a game plan that was tough to defend. Oregon’s lack of size hurt as did its depleted numbers in the secondary. The Cardinal was well-balanced and the Ducks were both confused and outworked.
• …Avoid Bay Area trips no matter how much fun they are. Last year, the blog got caught in a Berkeley monsoon and lost. This year, it got sucked into Stanford’’s beautiful campus and stadium only to get ambushed upon kickoff. There’s something wrong in this region. Must. Not. Come. Back.
• …Not give up on this team at all. Take Chip Kelly’s advice and allow yourself 24 hours to dwell on Saturday and then get over it. We’ve all been watching a damn good football team this season and if you think they’re done, well, exit now. This is a Rose Bowl-caliber team and it’s just three games away from getting there.

This week’s prediction post takes on a different approach after having read Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News make his case for Stanford. While applauding his gumption for sticking his neck out in defense of the home town team, I found myself agreeing with, well, none of it.

As such, I have to offer my counter. Wilner’s 10 reasons the Cardinal will win are summarized to keep this thing from turning into a novella.

10. Wilner says: Stanford plays disciplined defense which will make up for a disadvantage in speed.
OTP says: The Cardinal are 7th against the run in the Pac-10. Before last Saturday, USC was giving up roughly 80 yards a game on the ground. Oregon totaled 392. Discipline or not, the Cardinal aren’t good enough on defense to stop Oregon.

9. Wilner says: Chris Owusu, who has taken three kicks back for touchdowns, is due to break a big return beacause he hasn’t in awhile.
OTP says: Stanford and Oregon are the top two teams in covering kickoffs. I doubt either will break down this week even against stellar returners. And as we’ll see later, Wilner has a penchant for figuring something will happen on the sole basis that it’s due. In that case, I’d like to bet everything I have on black.

8. Wilner says: Stanford ruined Oregon’s big season in 2001.
OTP says: Cute fact and completely irrelevant for a game being played in 2009.

7. Wilner says: The Cardinal believe they can win and almost did a year ago with a gimpy Toby Gerhart and no Andrew Luck.
OTP says: Oh my God! And the Ducks don’t have LeGarrette Blount like they did last year! Okay, give Wilner credit. He’s getting closer to having something to do with 2009. Still pretty irrelevant, though, considering the conditions of that game were terrible.

FOTB Pick

6. Wilner says: Masoli played a clunker in his last game in the Bay Area against California.
OTP says: Yikes! That’s three completely irrelevant points in a row. The Cal game was played in roughly three feet of standing water. Masoli has never played well in rainy conditions. Saturday’s forecast is all sunshine.

5. Wilner says: Only USC has gone undefeated in Pac-10 play this decade so Oregon is due to lose eventually.
OTP says: Perhaps the most irrelevant point of all. Oregon is playing Stanford, not some mystic voodoo that disallows a team from winning all its games.

4. Wilner says: The game is played on grass which will slow Oregon’s speed, but not effect Stanford’s physicality.
OTP says: Maybe. The Ducks have only played one game on grass this year and it was their worst offensive output of the season. It was also without Jeremiah Masoli and LaMichael James was still well over 100 yards. Pretty sure the playing surface won’t mean a thing when Oregon’s at full strength.

3. Wilner says: Stanford’s wine and cheese crowd will have a reverse atmosphere effect and lull the Ducks to sleep.
OTP says: Really? This is the third best reason Stanford wins? There will be plenty of atmosphere courtesy of the thousands of Duck fans expected to attend.

2. Wilner says: It’s good to play teams after they faced USC. Oregon is primed for a letdown. Stanford is rested coming off of a bye.
OTP says: Uh oh, Stanford is outscoring opponents 109-21 under Jim Harbaugh coming off of a bye week.  What? That was against Washington State, San Jose State and Notre Dame? Really, they even lost to 3-9 Notre Dame? Scary. Well, what about teams letting down after playing USC? A quick fact check reveals Oregon is 6-1 this decade following games against the Trojans.

1. Wilner says: Stanford controls the ball with it’s power running game against an undersized Oregon defense. They mix in some play-action passes and the net result is less possession time for Oregon. Stanford will score at will in the second half while the Ducks offense sputters from its lack of rhythm.
OTP says: Ok, if Stanford does win, this is probably how it happens. However, the blog would like to dip into an overused cliche and channel Lee Corso with it’s first “Not so fast my friend!” of the season. Oregon is two seconds from being in last place for time of possession. You can go on long drives all you want. It takes IBM’s Roadrunner supercomputer more time to run 2+2 than it does for the Ducks to score (too geeky? Yeah, thought so). As for wearing Oregon down in the second half, well Mr. Wilner, it hasn’t happened yet, so it’s bound to happen now. Right?

Sometimes, blogs get hangovers too, so if it seems the place is a bit dead, just know it’s refocusing and getting back up for another round.

Hopefully, so too will the Oregon Ducks football team.

Eugene was some kind of utopia on Saturday and given how early many got started with ESPN’s College GameDay, there was very little of the day that went unused. For the blog, it started with an early morning flight and ended late at a place that would make ESPN’s Neil Everett proud (Rennie’s of course). For all, it was one hell of a day.

But this isn’t so much about the party as it is about how we move on.

All the excitement and hype of the day and the week preceding may have manifested itself into three and a half hours of perfection that vaulted Oregon into a Rose Bowl driver seat, but it’s all for not if the Ducks don’t forget everything they just did. They’ll need to put forth the same preparation and the same effort for a Stanford team that defends its home turf like a rabid animal.

In year’s past, this was a legitimate concern. Oregon played hangover games all the time and left you feeling frustrated by a group so capable and yet so easily distracted.

Now, not so much. Chip Kelly’s stringent policy that the most important game you’ll ever play is this week seems to really work. It’s fun to mock because it’s so silly to fans and media, but it has a genuine purpose that his team has bought hook, line and sinker.

There was no hangover from Boise State, just a win the following week. After beating Cal in an emotional, “we’re back” statement game, they went right back to business and dismantled a Washington State Cougar team in a way no one else has done all year.

I can almost guarantee Stanford has their full attention, LeGarrette Blount’s status notwithstanding. The Cardinal is a team that has only one loss at home in the last two seasons and is still somewhat in the race for the conference crown.

Lose to Stanford and Oregon opens the door back up for a litany of teams to challenge for the top spot. Win and it’s virtually shut to all but Arizona.

No doubt, a big game looms this weekend, one the Ducks can ill afford to lose. If eight games has been any indication, the Ducks know this more than anyone.

I’m really smart and to prove it, here’s exactly what will happen in Oregon’s remaining five games. There’s no reason to doubt me – everything below is future fact.

10/25 – Oregon @ Arizona State
Both teams get two weeks to prepare. The Sun Devils have lost four in a row and look like a mess while Oregon has not recently played well. The Ducks have had ASU’s number the past two years and with a week to prepare against a team that seems to have lost its way, expect a win.

Oregon 24, ASU 17

11/1 – Oregon @ Cal
This was supposed to be the last of a brutal four game stretch with three road games against the cream of the conference. USC was as difficult as predicted, but the other two, at ASU and at Cal, just aren’t what we though they were. The Bears are ranked now and 2-0 in conference, but appear very beatable. The blog is making its one and only live appearance at a Duck game with this one and would appreciate a victory. Not seeing it, though.

Cal 38, Oregon 27

11/8 – Stanford @ Oregon
Well, look who’s tied with the Ducks for second in the conference right now. It’s the Cardinal! Stanford is 3-1 with wins over Washington, Oregon State and Arizona. Their blowout loss to Arizona State doesn’t make much sense, but they appear to be a legit threat on any given Saturday. They should be favored to win their next two games and come into this game at 5-1, but they can’t win at Autzen.

Oregon 45, Stanford 23

11/15 – Arizona @ Oregon
The Wildcats are tough to figure out. Statistically, you’d think they are undefeated, yet they sport losses to New Mexico and Stanford. They have handled Oregon two years in a row and blew out Oregon at Autzen Stadium in 2006. Revenge is on the mind of these Ducks for last year’s soul-crushing defeat. Ducks win despite giving up 723 yards in the air to Willie Tuitama.

Oregon 70, Arizona 63

11/29 – Oregon @ Oregon State
Here it is, the Civil War. Oregon hasn’t won at Reser Stadium in the processed foods era of bean dips and potato salads. This time, the Ducks act like its Parker Stadium again and get the win to avenge the home loss a year ago. You may think it an unlikely victory, but what you don’t know is the cosmic forces working against the Beavers. I have attended the last four games in Corvallis and always had two tickets with my name on them if needed from Beaver-loving mom and dad. This year, I’ve been notified that these tickets are going to another beneficiary. My absence is basically a guaranteed Oregon win. Dad, this loss is on you.

Oregon 22, Oregon State 21 as the Ducks convert a two point play with no time left on the clock.