Conveying an Unhealthy Obsession to the Masses
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Part II: Is it Better Than You Think? The Oregon Defense

Posted By: Nick, Off The Pond under Football @ 7:27 am | December 17, 2009 

Through the first half of the season, there was much talk of Oregon’s improved defense. They literally dominated teams by forcing turnovers, stoutly defending their end zone from intrusion and even at times scoring points of its own.

And then the last four games happened.

Opponents scored 51, 21, 41 and 33 points against a unit that had previously not given up more than 24 points in any one game. And that 24 included a defensive touchdown and a 19 yard drive following a turnover.

Through its first eight games, the Ducks came up with 20 turnovers. In the last four, Oregon forced its opponents to give it back just four times.

Competition has something to do with that. Outside of Boise State who plays against terrible competition, three of Oregon’s final four opponents also happened to be the top three offenses it faced all year. These were elite offenses that all averaged at least 29.7 points and over 400 yards per game.

With the exception of Toby Gerhart, it wasn’t the run defense that let down. In fact, Oregon held opponent’s rushing attacks significantly below their season averages (again, Gerhart excepted). The pass defense, however, slipped against the likes of Nick Foles, Sean Canfield and Andrew Luck. Foles and Canfield led the Pac-10 in passing this season.

Why is this significant? Ohio State is a decidedly run-oriented offense and averages almost 40 yards more per game on the ground than through the air. Terrell Pryor has been handcuffed and is nowhere near the threat throwing the ball compared to guys like Canfield and Foles.

Points Against Opp. Season Avg. Rushing Yards Against Opp. Season Avg. Passing Yards Against Opp. Season Avg. Total Yards Against Opp. Season Avg.
OSU, Stan., UA 41.67 32.77 154.67 178.67 290.33 244.13 445 422.80
Other Nine Games 17.56 26.56 117.33 143.89 173.56 225.28 290.89 369.17

The chart above would seem to indicate Oregon struggled only against the conference’s top three offenses which happen to be well-balanced units. The end of season slide seems to be more about quality of opposition than anything else. Is it an elite defense? No. But the Ducks have a lot of team speed and aren’t going up against an offensive juggernaut. One could easily see them control the Buckeyes much the way they did most of the schedule.

Throughout Nick Allioti’s history, his defenses have been especially good when they are able to focus on the run and force the opposition to pass. Can Ohio State win the game passing the ball? Probably not. Will they be able to move the ball through the air enough to keep Oregon on its heels? That carries a higher likelihood and could be a key to the game.

If Oregon can control what has become a formidable Ohio State rushing attack, and the Buckeyes can’t establish a passing game, Oregon’s “weaker” side of the ball may end up being the difference.

Rose Bowl Bound!

Posted By: Nick, Off The Pond under Football @ 7:38 am | December 4, 2009 

It was the game the rivalry deserved. And now that it’s over, just a few simple words say it all. The Ducks are going to the Rose Bowl.

Wow.rose

The game wasn’t always always clean, but it was one for the ages.

Ducks and Beavers traded blows for 60 minutes and as has been the case all season, Oregon wore its opponent down in the second half and asserted itself when the game entered the decisive stages.

Until then, it looked like the Beavers might take control and use a script laid out by the Ducks in 2008 to ruin the home team’s Rose Bowl dreams. But would you believe that when things were at their worst, Chip Kelly would turn to LeGarrette Blount for the first time since the season opener?

Putting Blount in the game while facing a nine point deficit seemed crazy. Turns out, it was brilliant as the big back came up with a huge touchdown to draw Oregon within two at 30-28.

From there, LaMichael James became dominant, turning in a 52 yard lead-taking touchdown run on the next offensive series. The defense began to shine after giving up scores on five consecutive drives between the second and third quarters.

When the game was on the line in the final six minutes, it was fitting to see Jeramiah Masoli, James and Blount all turning in huge plays to ultimately ensure the Beavers would never get another chance.

Oregon State played a great game. Sean Canfield looks like a bonafide pro. The Rodgers brothers are ridiculously talented. And they all deserve a much better bowl than what might be available after Saturday’s games. The Holiday had better think long and hard about the Beavers who would travel well and be an ideal representative for the Pac-10 in the league’s second best bowl.

But I’m sure opponent respect isn’t what the Beavers were after. Clearly, they wanted the spoils of the victor, but Thursday, those were reserved for Oregon.

As the final seconds ticked down and melted into a post game celebration where fans could not and would not leave, the scene at Autzen Stadium seemed surreal even through ESPN’s cameras a state away.

I sat and watched. And smiled. And kept smiling. And then I saw that first red rose, and Oh My God! The Ducks are in the Rose Bowl! That really just happened. How sweet it is.


Perfect Pac-10 Picks – Week 9

Posted By: Nick, Off The Pond under Football @ 12:49 pm | October 30, 2009 

I’ve been waiting all year to use the word “perfect.” After calling my shot a week ago, it finally happened. 5-0. Judging by this week’s slate, another perfect week is a distinct possibility.

Last Week: 5-0
Season: 37-13

California @ Arizona State
I kind of believe in Cal. The way they got drilled by Oregon and USC makes you wonder a little bit, but there’s no reason they should lose to Arizona State, even if it’s on the road.

The Pick…California

UCLA @ Oregon State
The Beavers looked good against USC and Sean Canfield was especially impressive. They could win out from here setting up a Civil War showdown. Wouldn’t it be something if they end up with a chance to knock Oregon out of the Rose Bowl? God, I’m even getting ahead of myself in talking about the Beavers. Must. Calm. Down.

The Pick…Oregon State

Washington State @ Notre Dame (in San Antonio)
Okay, this is the week, Washington State. We’re all rooting for you. There’s no way you have it in you, but dammit, we’re still going to root for it!

The Pick…Notre Dame

USC @ Oregon
Must. Calm. Down.

The Pick…Oregon