The Pac-10 bowl schedule has been finalized with one potential addition left that may send UCLA to to the Eagle Bank Bowl. Not sure if a game against Temple is what the Bruins had in mind when they declared USC’s dynasty to be officially over, but hey, it’s a start.

Pac-10 teams will be playing a pretty even slate of opponents for the most part. Oregon and Arizona both play teams ranked about the same. Oregon State and Cal will play up against higher ranked teams with better records. Stanford and USC have lower ranked opponents with similar records.

The matchups feature opponents from the Big Ten, Big 12, ACC and Mountain West. Despite the fact 10 SEC teams will play in a bowl game, none are against the Pac-10 because the conferences don’t have any contracted matchups. The Big East is also absent from the bowl schedule.

* Note: All times are pacific.

Almost forgot this week’s picks amidst a sickness that has taken hold and forced me into a semi-comatose state of  being where all I can do is lay still and watch football. Well, that, and the only game left that matters is on Thursday, so what’s the point?

And no mom, it’s not H1N1, so settle down. But, Chip, don’t think I’m not still winning the day.

Last Week: 3-1
Season: 49-19

Arizona @ Arizona State
I’m not sure what these two teams traditionally call their rivalry game but this year, let’s just go with the “Downer Derby.” ASU lost any hope of avoiding a losing season and still having bowl eligibility a week ago. Arizona rushed the field to celebrate their run for the roses,  but forgot all NCAA sanctioned games last 60 minutes before ending. Now, they trudge their depressed football corpses onto the field to salvage the next best thing – whatever that may be.

The Pick…Arizona

Washington State @ Washington
While it would be hilarious to watch the Cougars win the Crapple Cup again, I can’t see how this could happen. Even Washington should beat these guys by 20. And they probably will.

The Pick…Washington

UCLA @ USC
Ooh, the intrigue. Could the dynasty in L.A. officially be over as procalimed by the UCLA marketing department at the start of Rick Neuheisel’s tenure? I doubt it. In fact, I think people are making too much of the end of this dynasty. It’s still the same coach with the same caliber of players. Perhaps the Pac-10 has caught up, but that doesn’t mean USC won’t be right there again in 2010. As for the present day, I think it’ll be close, but the home field edge gives the game to the Trojans.

The Pick…USC

Notre Dame  @ Stanford
Call me a Pac-10 homer, but after seeing mark Ingram against Auburn, the nation’s best running back will be on display tonight against Notre Dame. Jim Harbaugh’s the kind of coach who will try and pad his guy’s numbers and I’ll bet we see Toby Gerhart surge to the front of the Heisman pack against the Irish’s porous defense.

The Pick…Stanford

Once again, the blog is getting economical. You’d think the time saving would have resulted in better prognosticating, but alas, I suffered my worst week of the season. That’s okay, like Oregon in the desert, Saturday is all about redemption (well, that and playing for a Rose Bowl).

Last Week: 2-3
Season: 46-18

Arizona State @ UCLA
Hey, I was just kidding about that Wazzu pick last week. No wait, I was just trying to rally the Cougs to their only win of the Pac-10 season. No, that’s not it either. Did I really just pick Washington State because I thought they could win? Wow, that was dumb.

This week, I’m a Bruin believer. Both teams are pretty mediocre so it stands to reason the home team should win, right? A UCLA win would give the Pac-10 its seventh bowl eligible team.

The Pick…UCLA

Oregon State @ Washington State
Sorry Cougars, that was my one and only try with you guys. This week, your battle is simply to hold the Beavers under 50. Unlike some Oregon State players, I root for my rival in situations like this. What could be better than a Civil War for the Rose Bowl on national TV?

The Pick…Oregon State

California @ Stanford
Okay, so I thought Cal was cooked. I was certain Arizona would beat the Bears. Now, I’m just as sure that Stanford will win this game by at least two touchdowns. And I’d say more if not for the rivalry aspect. The Cardinal are just killing teams right now. They still don’t have much on defense, but who cares when you’re rolling up 50 every weekend?

The Pick…Stanford

FOTB Pick

Oregon @ Arizona
The Ducks would be 10-0 if this blog had been right every week. Once again, I’m putting some spectacular homerism on display. This game is not going to be easy. The Wildcats are tough at home and something about road games in Tuscon just scare the crap out of me. Maybe it’s that whole quarterback injury thing. I can’t handle another result like the one in 2007. It would end me. Please, Oregon, for the sake of my will to live, win this game.

The Pick…Oregon

Bonus Pick: Lee Corso Head Gear
That’s right, I’m guessing what another person will guess. Corso has donned the Duck head every time the College GameDay show has come to Eugene. Will he brush off his love of the Oregon mascot and succumb to the temptation of picking this GameDay virgin? Corso may have already shot his wad (hey! he said it, okay?) in Eugene but he’s got another one in him. It’s more Duck headgear for the Sunshine Scooter.

The Pick…Corso wears Donald and the UO immediately files an injuction against ESPN for using…oh wait, Disney owns them, it’s okay.

The race for the Rose Bowl is simpler in some ways, more complicated in others. For Oregon, it’s more clear than ever that winning out is the only realistic way to get the conference bid to Pasadena. In that sense, it’s simple. Just root for Oregon and all is well. Of course, a loss opens up a lot of ties and that’s where it gets messy. It might help if you brush up on your Rose Bowl Selection Procedures.

Teams Remaining in the Rose Bowl Hunt.

Note: USC got left in the race for the fact they can still win a six-way tie. It would be perfectly typical to see USC pull this one out.

Edit: Just found this link which does a superb job of breaking down the Rose Bowl race for all remaining Pac-10 contenders. Check that out if you have even more time to spare.

So Many Scenarios…

The lesson to be learned for the second straight week is that Oregon needs to win out. There is only one somewhat realistic scenario remaining that allows the Ducks to lose another game. In that scenario, Oregon still finishes alone in first. There is actually only one scenario I can find where Oregon ties for first and still gets the Rose Bowl bid. It involves OSU losing to WSU.

Note: No, WSU is not going to beat OSU this weekend and you can remove about half the scenarios on this chart as a result.

Note x2: These scenarios all involve Oregon and are not the end of the discussion. If Oregon loses out, a number of other combinations not involving the Ducks will play out.

Note x3: Arizona, despite the loss, still controls its own destiny.

The Week Ahead and Who to Root For

This isn’t hard. Pour yourself a beverage, root for the contenders to lose, pull for Oregon to win and everything will be oh so lovely.

The blog is making budget cuts this week and streamlining its efforts into one, efficient post.  Call it a corporate reorganization. As such, the normal Oregon-centric preview post has been downsized into the Pac-10 Picks to create more synergy.

After a 3-2 effort last week, the deliverables weren’t good enough. It was clear the blog was spread too thin and needed to make its efforts more dynamic. Without a doubt, the user experience has been enhanced with this innovative move into a result-driven realignment.

Last Week: 3-2
Season: 44-15

Stanford @ USC
Some will have you believe that the Trojans are cracking and the dynasty is about to come crashing down. Such reports are premature. The Trojans finish the season with three straight at the Dump. Huh? It’s called the Memorial Coliseum? I thought they played at a dump. I’ll be damned. I mean, give them credit, they’ve won 46 of 47 there, but I really thought it was a dump (yep, still bitter about 2006).

The Pick…USC

Washington @ Oregon State
The Civil War looms. The Beavers have only to get through a tour of the college football wasteland that is the state of Washington to bring possible Rose Bowl hopes into the game. The Beavers win – and you can scribble the W in pen right now – will make it 12 in a row for the state of Oregon against the “preeminent” program of the Northwest.

The Pick…Oregon State

UCLA @ Washington State
This is the dumbest pick I’ve made all year. I mean, who picks Washington State for anything? This is such a bad team. But this is also a rallying cry for the Cougars to nail down a Pac-10 win. The game day high in Pullman is going to be 34. UCLA needs this win for bowl eligibility so maybe they fight through it, but I feel like picking an upset and where better to do it than in the Pac-10’s most irrelevant game of the year?

The Pick…Washington State

Arizona @ California
Hopeful Duck fans aside, I don’t think Cal can stay any closer than two touchdowns. One team is surging with confidence after years of bad football. The other just can’t seem to get things to go their way this season. And I don’t mind Arizona winning. In fact, I kind of hope they do. it would set up a huge showdown between ranked teams and it’s just more fun that way. Besides, if Oregon wants the Rose Bowl, it needs to win their games and not rely on complicated tiebreaking scenarios (not that this blog doesn’t enjoy wasting time on such things).

FOTB Pick

The Pick…Arizona

Arizona State @ Oregon
Oregon gets their third straight freshman quarterback. It seems safe to say that Brock Osweiler won’t be as dangerous as Andrew Luck given ASU’s offensive ineptitude this year. And as for the Sun Devils “stout” run defense, the last time a team surrendering fewer than 90 yards per game on the ground came to Autzen, they got burned for almost 400. Given that it’s an entirely different team and scenario, that might seem like a meaningless line, but it would count as expert analysis if my name was Jon Wilner.

The Pick…Oregon

Basketball Bonus Pick: Winston-Salem State @ Oregon
The official “Save Ernie Kent’s Job” tour begins with non-conference creampuff number 1.

The Pick…Oregon

This week’s “Who to Root For” gets a lot trickier, but at least we don’t have to follow that pesky national scene anymore. Who wanted that, anyway? Certainly not this ever-optimistic, pie-in-the-sky blog.

The Ducks ceiling is now the Rose Bowl and they remain in great position even after losing to Stanford. I’m going to warn you right now, though. The best thing you can do is stop reading and just root for Oregon to win three more games. But if not…well, good luck interpreting what remains below. It might help if you brush up on your Rose Bowl Selection Procedures.

Teams Remaining in the Rose Bowl Hunt.

Note: Some other teams remain mathematically alive, but it’s being assumed no team with three league losses will win the conference.

Now, Let’s Really Waste Some Time…

There are endless scenarios that could play out. Below is a chart of possible outcomes that explore Oregon’s Rose Bowl chances if they finish in a three-way tie for first. The assumption is made that all contenders will beat non-contenders on their schedule. In other words, a team like Cal is assumed to lose to both Arizona and Stanford. In this case, Oregon has virtually zero chance of winning any tiebreakers because of their loss to Stanford. The Ducks best hope of getting to the Rose Bowl is to win out. Their next best chance is to have Stanford lose to USC and Cal. This would put Stanford lower in the standings and the they’d be less likely to figure into a complicated three-way tiebreaking scenario (see link for Rose Bowl Selection Procedures).

If you have a life and/or don’t want a headache, you can skip reading below and I’ll deliver the bottom line in less than 15 words: Oregon does not want a three-way tie. They need to win out.

Note: I did not explore any two-way tiebreaking scenarios. The problem with those (involving Oregon) is that they are unlikely to happen without significant upsets.
Note x2: These scenarios all involve Oregon and are not the end of the discussion. If Oregon loses two more games, the door opens in a lot of other directions as well.
Note x3: Moral of the story with three-way tiebreakers? Lose to Washington. That’s the reason Arizona and USC are most likely to win these scenarios.
Note x4: Arizona is the only other team to control its own destiny.

The Week Ahead and Who to Root For

For the most part, you’re safe to root for contending teams to lose. However, in some cases, it may help Oregon’s tiebreaking chances for certain contending teams to win. It’s confusing. Really confusing, actually. Like I said above, the best thing you can do is stop reading, turn on your TV Saturday and root for Oregon. It’s much simpler.

As convoluted as the Pac-10 race may seem, it’s actually pretty simple. Arizona and Oregon control their own destiny. The rest do not. Of course, if those two teams add a loss, then it gets interesting. On to the rankings.

1. Oregon (7-2, 5-1)
I ain’t worried. Seriously, I’m not worried. Oregon’s body of work is still too good to justify anyone else at the top. With two of three at home and its closest competitor still having a game at USC, the Ducks remain in a great position.

2. Arizona (6-2, 4-1)
I’m taking the same approach I used with Oregon and USC before. The Wildcats have to beat Oregon to earn the top spot. From what I’ve seen this year, the Ducks are still the top team in the Pac-10 regardless of what happened in Palo Alto. It’s shaping up to be a huge game in the desert between the Pac-10’s leaders.

3. Oregon State (6-3, 4-2)
If OSU and Stanford both win out and Arizona loses to at least Oregon and USC, Oregon State is Rose Bowl bound. Didn’t see that one coming and it’s more plausible than I realized. And by “more plausible,” I mean its likelihood is slightly above “no chance in hell.” With only the Washington schools left before the Civil War, we can pretty much bank on the Beavers entering the game at 6-2.

4. Stanford-(6-3, 5-2)
They did a great job against Oregon, but I’m not convinced they have staying power. Their style of play matched up really well with a depleted and undersized Oregon defense. USC has the size and power to handle Stanford and with the game in L.A. this week, I’m betting on the Trojans.

5. USC (7-2, 4-2)
I don’t like the way they’re playing. However, at home, this team is pretty much unbeatable. Stanford won’t have their way with USC the way they did with Oregon and we should see the Trojans move up quickly.

6. California (6-3, 3-3)
The Jahvid Best touchdown play was about as crazy a thing as you will see in football. It’s unbelievable all he got was a concussion. Head injuries are a serious deal, but in this case, it’s a good thing compared to what could have been. Aside from that, the Bears just aren’t as good as we all thought this season. Jeff Tedford is establishing quite the trend of underachieving teams.

7. Arizona State (4-5, 2-4)
They shouldn’t have played USC that close, right? Sure, they have a good defense, but the offense is pretty anemic. They should provide a good bounce back opponent for the Ducks this week.

8. UCLA (4-5, 1-5)
Congratulations Bruins! You snapped a five game losing streak and ensured a strong likelihood of the Huskies continuing their run of losing seasons that pleases Duck fans to no end.

9. Washington (3-6, 2-4)
The Huskies are back alright. Well, back in the standings where they’ve been for the last few years, at least. Washington is now firmly en route to yet another losing season.

10.Washington State (1-8, 0-6)
Arizona did what everyone does and dismantled a very bad team. How do the Cougars recover from this mess?

In light of the events occurring around midday on November 7, the blog is making some new promises. Can they be kept? Probably not, but I’ll try for at least a day.

This blog will…

• …Never again question the enlightened wisdom of San Jose Mercury News columnist Jon Wilner. He may be a traffic-baiting, uh, (insert word for prostitute), but he was dead on regarding Stanford vs. Oregon. I refuted all ten of his points on why Stanford would win and in hindsight, he went 8 for 10. Even his silly mention of the 2001 disaster seemed spot on given that the score of that game was 49-42. This year? 51-42. My sincere apologies go out to Mr. Wilner, a man whose last name is now synonymous with a curse word in my circle.
• …Stop caring about Iowa, TCU, Cincinnati, Boise State, Florida, Alabama and Texas. Cheered like hell for Louisiana Tech Friday night. Was ecstatic when Northwestern beat Iowa. Then found out I just wasted a week worrying about irrelevant teams. Not so interested in the national picture anymore. Also not all that into writing complete sentences.
• …Call all voters who place USC ahead of Oregon hypocrites. Many voters explained to The Oregonian’s John Hunt last week that they could never put Oregon ahead of Boise State because of the head-to-head result. Now, I’ll wonder about their logic when the Trojans jump Oregon in the polls on Sunday.
• …Completely focus on the Rose Bowl. Never should have thought about anything but it. The Pac-10 is a lot more wide open now and we’ll get into that soon enough. Oregon still has some serious advantages, but for now, the important take-away is that the Ducks and Arizona both control their own destiny. The rest need help. With three games to go, you can’t ask for much better.
• …Wonder how Jeremiah Masoli ended up with at least 500 relatives. I need to eat a lot more if I want to get into that clan.
• …Not explicitly blame Nick Aliotti, but it won’t necessarily trust him either. My final conclusion on the defense is that Stanford did a hell of a job executing a game plan that was tough to defend. Oregon’s lack of size hurt as did its depleted numbers in the secondary. The Cardinal was well-balanced and the Ducks were both confused and outworked.
• …Avoid Bay Area trips no matter how much fun they are. Last year, the blog got caught in a Berkeley monsoon and lost. This year, it got sucked into Stanford’’s beautiful campus and stadium only to get ambushed upon kickoff. There’s something wrong in this region. Must. Not. Come. Back.
• …Not give up on this team at all. Take Chip Kelly’s advice and allow yourself 24 hours to dwell on Saturday and then get over it. We’ve all been watching a damn good football team this season and if you think they’re done, well, exit now. This is a Rose Bowl-caliber team and it’s just three games away from getting there.

This week’s prediction post takes on a different approach after having read Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News make his case for Stanford. While applauding his gumption for sticking his neck out in defense of the home town team, I found myself agreeing with, well, none of it.

As such, I have to offer my counter. Wilner’s 10 reasons the Cardinal will win are summarized to keep this thing from turning into a novella.

10. Wilner says: Stanford plays disciplined defense which will make up for a disadvantage in speed.
OTP says: The Cardinal are 7th against the run in the Pac-10. Before last Saturday, USC was giving up roughly 80 yards a game on the ground. Oregon totaled 392. Discipline or not, the Cardinal aren’t good enough on defense to stop Oregon.

9. Wilner says: Chris Owusu, who has taken three kicks back for touchdowns, is due to break a big return beacause he hasn’t in awhile.
OTP says: Stanford and Oregon are the top two teams in covering kickoffs. I doubt either will break down this week even against stellar returners. And as we’ll see later, Wilner has a penchant for figuring something will happen on the sole basis that it’s due. In that case, I’d like to bet everything I have on black.

8. Wilner says: Stanford ruined Oregon’s big season in 2001.
OTP says: Cute fact and completely irrelevant for a game being played in 2009.

7. Wilner says: The Cardinal believe they can win and almost did a year ago with a gimpy Toby Gerhart and no Andrew Luck.
OTP says: Oh my God! And the Ducks don’t have LeGarrette Blount like they did last year! Okay, give Wilner credit. He’s getting closer to having something to do with 2009. Still pretty irrelevant, though, considering the conditions of that game were terrible.

FOTB Pick

6. Wilner says: Masoli played a clunker in his last game in the Bay Area against California.
OTP says: Yikes! That’s three completely irrelevant points in a row. The Cal game was played in roughly three feet of standing water. Masoli has never played well in rainy conditions. Saturday’s forecast is all sunshine.

5. Wilner says: Only USC has gone undefeated in Pac-10 play this decade so Oregon is due to lose eventually.
OTP says: Perhaps the most irrelevant point of all. Oregon is playing Stanford, not some mystic voodoo that disallows a team from winning all its games.

4. Wilner says: The game is played on grass which will slow Oregon’s speed, but not effect Stanford’s physicality.
OTP says: Maybe. The Ducks have only played one game on grass this year and it was their worst offensive output of the season. It was also without Jeremiah Masoli and LaMichael James was still well over 100 yards. Pretty sure the playing surface won’t mean a thing when Oregon’s at full strength.

3. Wilner says: Stanford’s wine and cheese crowd will have a reverse atmosphere effect and lull the Ducks to sleep.
OTP says: Really? This is the third best reason Stanford wins? There will be plenty of atmosphere courtesy of the thousands of Duck fans expected to attend.

2. Wilner says: It’s good to play teams after they faced USC. Oregon is primed for a letdown. Stanford is rested coming off of a bye.
OTP says: Uh oh, Stanford is outscoring opponents 109-21 under Jim Harbaugh coming off of a bye week.  What? That was against Washington State, San Jose State and Notre Dame? Really, they even lost to 3-9 Notre Dame? Scary. Well, what about teams letting down after playing USC? A quick fact check reveals Oregon is 6-1 this decade following games against the Trojans.

1. Wilner says: Stanford controls the ball with it’s power running game against an undersized Oregon defense. They mix in some play-action passes and the net result is less possession time for Oregon. Stanford will score at will in the second half while the Ducks offense sputters from its lack of rhythm.
OTP says: Ok, if Stanford does win, this is probably how it happens. However, the blog would like to dip into an overused cliche and channel Lee Corso with it’s first “Not so fast my friend!” of the season. Oregon is two seconds from being in last place for time of possession. You can go on long drives all you want. It takes IBM’s Roadrunner supercomputer more time to run 2+2 than it does for the Ducks to score (too geeky? Yeah, thought so). As for wearing Oregon down in the second half, well Mr. Wilner, it hasn’t happened yet, so it’s bound to happen now. Right?

Thanks to a suggestion from NautiDuck in a comment yesterday, I’m starting an occasional feature to keep track of who to root for every week. Currently, there are two things in play for Oregon: the Rose Bowl and the National Title game. Both take place in Pasadena.

With regards to the Rose Bowl race, we can safely ignore mathematically eliminated UCLA and Washington State. Both teams are currently at 0-5 in conference play and just waiting to play each other to figure out once and for all who is worse.

Let’s also remove Washington and Arizona State, two teams that could technically finish ahead of Oregon but only if the Ducks’ quarterback somehow became injured for the season leading to a slew of losses. It’s just such an unlikely scenario. Oh wait….

That leaves us with the teams below. There is actually a significant amount of work left for Oregon given that it hasn’t played three of these teams.

At 5-0 and as the only undefeated team, Oregon is the ruler of its destiny. As such, the take on who to root for this week is all about the national title picture. Sure, we could all pull for teams like USC and UA to lose, but it puts a ceiling on Oregon’s season that we don’t yet need. Perhaps after this weekend, I’ll get more into tie-breaker scenarios. It’s just too convoluted for that right now.

In chasing faint hopes of a national title game appearance, there’s very little guesswork in what to cheer for. There are only two games here that are open to interpretation.