Through the first half of the season, there was much talk of Oregon’s improved defense. They literally dominated teams by forcing turnovers, stoutly defending their end zone from intrusion and even at times scoring points of its own.

And then the last four games happened.

Opponents scored 51, 21, 41 and 33 points against a unit that had previously not given up more than 24 points in any one game. And that 24 included a defensive touchdown and a 19 yard drive following a turnover.

Through its first eight games, the Ducks came up with 20 turnovers. In the last four, Oregon forced its opponents to give it back just four times.

Competition has something to do with that. Outside of Boise State who plays against terrible competition, three of Oregon’s final four opponents also happened to be the top three offenses it faced all year. These were elite offenses that all averaged at least 29.7 points and over 400 yards per game.

With the exception of Toby Gerhart, it wasn’t the run defense that let down. In fact, Oregon held opponent’s rushing attacks significantly below their season averages (again, Gerhart excepted). The pass defense, however, slipped against the likes of Nick Foles, Sean Canfield and Andrew Luck. Foles and Canfield led the Pac-10 in passing this season.

Why is this significant? Ohio State is a decidedly run-oriented offense and averages almost 40 yards more per game on the ground than through the air. Terrell Pryor has been handcuffed and is nowhere near the threat throwing the ball compared to guys like Canfield and Foles.

The chart above would seem to indicate Oregon struggled only against the conference’s top three offenses which happen to be well-balanced units. The end of season slide seems to be more about quality of opposition than anything else. Is it an elite defense? No. But the Ducks have a lot of team speed and aren’t going up against an offensive juggernaut. One could easily see them control the Buckeyes much the way they did most of the schedule.

Throughout Nick Allioti’s history, his defenses have been especially good when they are able to focus on the run and force the opposition to pass. Can Ohio State win the game passing the ball? Probably not. Will they be able to move the ball through the air enough to keep Oregon on its heels? That carries a higher likelihood and could be a key to the game.

If Oregon can control what has become a formidable Ohio State rushing attack, and the Buckeyes can’t establish a passing game, Oregon’s “weaker” side of the ball may end up being the difference.

The Rose Bowl is being featured as “irresistible force meets immovable object.” It’s Oregon’s offensive juggernaut against Ohio State’s defensive stalwart.

There is no denying each team flashes greatness on those two sides of the ball. But what about the other story, the one you could supposedly call “completely resistible force meets entirely movable object?”

The Buckeyes offense doesn’t garner headlines nor does the Ducks defense. But does that really mean each unit is as flawed as perception allows?

Today, we’ll look at the Ohio State offense and see where the danger lurks. Tomorrow, we’ll probe the Oregon defense and find out what the opposition should fear.

Part I: Is it better than you think? The Ohio State Offense

The book on Ohio State’s offense says conservative, plodding and unimaginative. And if that’s not the book, it’s at least perception. Coach Jim Tressel was roundly criticized for shutting down his offense in the waning moments of regulation against Iowa when there was more than enough time to drive for a winning field goal. It would have made Chip Kelly gag.

But it proved to be a winning formula on that Saturday and guaranteed Ohio State’s Rose Bowl berth.

To gain some perspective on Ohio State’s offensive prowess, let’s look at the numbers in the chart displayed to the right.

The only thing that positively sticks out is Ohio State’s ability to run the football. This certainly fits the image of a conservative, plodding and unimaginative team, right?

The other thing that sticks out is decidedly negative. The passing offense is statistically bad. In fact, it’s among the worst in the nation. But then again, so is flashy, dynamic Oregon who ranks only slightly better in both yards per game and pass efficiency.

So flashy, dynamic Oregon is similar in style to plodding, conservative Ohio State? Well, not exactly. The Buckeyes score 8.4 fewer points per game and the curve of the season has shown Jeremiah Masoli’s numbers to dramatically improve while Terrelle Pryor has thrown fewer passes in the last three games than all but two others from the first nine contests.

But following that same curve, the Buckeyes have become far better at running the ball and, as such, have relied heavily on that part of the game. Since back-to-back midseason games in which it failed to reach 100 yards, Ohio State has rushed for at least 228 yards in the final five games.  They have dominated time of possession and were seriously threatened only once. The fewest rushing attempts in any of those games was 49.

And this five game stretch was not against the weaker part of the conference. The Buckeyes played both Penn State and Iowa during this run and finished against rival Michigan which regardless of current standings still means something.

Ohio State, over the last five weeks, has committed more to the run and less to the pass

It would be surprising to see Ohio State have much success through the air given Pryor’s lack of numbers on the season and the team’s overall lack of confidence in that part of the game. But one could easily imagine an undersized Oregon Duck defensive line getting pushed around allowing the Buckeyes to control the clock as they have done over their last five games.

UO’s defensive line features only two players on the two-deep heavier than 270 pounds. Every Buckeye starter on the offensive line is at least 296 pounds. Tressel is surely looking at those numbers and seeing a possible opportunity that he can exploit.

If he finds success and OSU is able to get to 50 carries, which has worked so well lately, the Ducks could find the Buckeye offense to be more formidable than previously thought.

I meant to do this last week, but I must have got knocked cold by a LeGarrette Blount right cross because my memory on Friday went bad and I forgot. Better late than never. I’m expecting 100% accuracy this season.

Stanford @ Wake Forest
I admit, I have a thing for Jim Harbaugh. He speaks his mind. He’s not one of those coaches that just sits there and spews talking points. So when he said the following in a post by Ted Miller, I smiled.

“If you’re playing a team from the opposite coast, let’s see if we can screw them on the time of kickoff,” he said. “If it’s a West Coast team playing on the East Coast, you play as early as possible and if it’s an East Coast team playing on the West Coast, you play as late as possible.”

He’s right, of course, and the smart pick is Wake Forest so that’s what I’m going with despite a strong inclination that the Cardinal might pull this one off.

The Pick: Wake Forest

Idaho @ Washington
You might ask why I’m smiling so much. My response would be (1) it’s kind of creepy that you know I’m smiling and (2) there is at least a possibility that Washington loses this game and sets a Pac-10 record for most consecutive losses. Is it going to happen? No, but it could and you have to have been pretty damn terrible to surpass a record that Oregon State set twice during 28 years of ineptitude.

The Pick: Washington (Congratulations! You’re all winners!)

UCLA @ Tennessee
Unfortunately for the Pac-10 this year, most of its key non-conference games are being played on the road. It could be a good conference with a bad draw. That’s how it goes. Slick Rick is still working on officially ending the dynasty in L.A. and hasn’t had time to figure out how to pull a win out at Rocky Top. This one could be ugly.

The Pick: Tennessee

E. Washington @ California
Now here’s a game you would find in the SEC. Top ten team meets Div. I FCS school. It’s one of those picks where I should have a handicap. I should have to guess the number of times Andy Ludwig calls for a screen pass on third and long to get any points for this pick. Actually, we already know the answer to that (hint: every damn time).

The Pick: California

Hawaii @ Washington State
Great, the Cougs buy out of next season’s game against Hawaii the very week they have to play the (Rainbow) Warriors. Why do you do anything that could remotely effect the attitude of the team you are playing, especially when it’s one of two games on the entire schedule you have any chance of winning? Bah, the Cougs can still handle this and get the Pac-10 above .500 against the WAC.

The Pick: Washington State

USC @ Ohio State
Last year, this was a no-brainer. This season, it still is but with just a hint of intrigue. After all, it’s in Columbus and features Terrelle (I really want to visit Oregon…no, seriously, I’m going to visit…just wait a little longer…I need to make this recruiting thing last a few more months…Surprise, I’m going to Ohio State) Pryor who should make it difficult for USC’s defense. Still, come on, it’s Ohio State in a game against a good team. Easy pick.

The Pick: USC

N. Arizona @ Arizona
They seem to play this game every year. Or maybe they alternate it with ASU. I don’t know. I don’t really care and I’m kind of annoyed I have to spend any time debating who will win this game. So I won’t.

The Pick: Arizona

Purdue @ Oregon
Either Oregon is in complete disarray and is about to slide into the worst season in program history or it’s completely fine. We’ll know more Saturday. The bet here, and it’s because I’m a total homer, is that Oregon will prove in a big way that they have a lot left to say about this season.

The Pick: Oregon

Oregon State @ UNLV
Fortunately, if things do go sour quickly for Oregon, we can always flip it over to this game instead and watch the Beavers execute their annual big early loss on the road (someone be sure to tell my Beaver family I’m kidding. I need money for my wedding next year).

The Pick: Oregon State