Through the first half of the season, there was much talk of Oregon’s improved defense. They literally dominated teams by forcing turnovers, stoutly defending their end zone from intrusion and even at times scoring points of its own.

And then the last four games happened.

Opponents scored 51, 21, 41 and 33 points against a unit that had previously not given up more than 24 points in any one game. And that 24 included a defensive touchdown and a 19 yard drive following a turnover.

Through its first eight games, the Ducks came up with 20 turnovers. In the last four, Oregon forced its opponents to give it back just four times.

Competition has something to do with that. Outside of Boise State who plays against terrible competition, three of Oregon’s final four opponents also happened to be the top three offenses it faced all year. These were elite offenses that all averaged at least 29.7 points and over 400 yards per game.

With the exception of Toby Gerhart, it wasn’t the run defense that let down. In fact, Oregon held opponent’s rushing attacks significantly below their season averages (again, Gerhart excepted). The pass defense, however, slipped against the likes of Nick Foles, Sean Canfield and Andrew Luck. Foles and Canfield led the Pac-10 in passing this season.

Why is this significant? Ohio State is a decidedly run-oriented offense and averages almost 40 yards more per game on the ground than through the air. Terrell Pryor has been handcuffed and is nowhere near the threat throwing the ball compared to guys like Canfield and Foles.

The chart above would seem to indicate Oregon struggled only against the conference’s top three offenses which happen to be well-balanced units. The end of season slide seems to be more about quality of opposition than anything else. Is it an elite defense? No. But the Ducks have a lot of team speed and aren’t going up against an offensive juggernaut. One could easily see them control the Buckeyes much the way they did most of the schedule.

Throughout Nick Allioti’s history, his defenses have been especially good when they are able to focus on the run and force the opposition to pass. Can Ohio State win the game passing the ball? Probably not. Will they be able to move the ball through the air enough to keep Oregon on its heels? That carries a higher likelihood and could be a key to the game.

If Oregon can control what has become a formidable Ohio State rushing attack, and the Buckeyes can’t establish a passing game, Oregon’s “weaker” side of the ball may end up being the difference.

Almost forgot this week’s picks amidst a sickness that has taken hold and forced me into a semi-comatose state of  being where all I can do is lay still and watch football. Well, that, and the only game left that matters is on Thursday, so what’s the point?

And no mom, it’s not H1N1, so settle down. But, Chip, don’t think I’m not still winning the day.

Last Week: 3-1
Season: 49-19

Arizona @ Arizona State
I’m not sure what these two teams traditionally call their rivalry game but this year, let’s just go with the “Downer Derby.” ASU lost any hope of avoiding a losing season and still having bowl eligibility a week ago. Arizona rushed the field to celebrate their run for the roses,  but forgot all NCAA sanctioned games last 60 minutes before ending. Now, they trudge their depressed football corpses onto the field to salvage the next best thing – whatever that may be.

The Pick…Arizona

Washington State @ Washington
While it would be hilarious to watch the Cougars win the Crapple Cup again, I can’t see how this could happen. Even Washington should beat these guys by 20. And they probably will.

The Pick…Washington

UCLA @ USC
Ooh, the intrigue. Could the dynasty in L.A. officially be over as procalimed by the UCLA marketing department at the start of Rick Neuheisel’s tenure? I doubt it. In fact, I think people are making too much of the end of this dynasty. It’s still the same coach with the same caliber of players. Perhaps the Pac-10 has caught up, but that doesn’t mean USC won’t be right there again in 2010. As for the present day, I think it’ll be close, but the home field edge gives the game to the Trojans.

The Pick…USC

Notre Dame  @ Stanford
Call me a Pac-10 homer, but after seeing mark Ingram against Auburn, the nation’s best running back will be on display tonight against Notre Dame. Jim Harbaugh’s the kind of coach who will try and pad his guy’s numbers and I’ll bet we see Toby Gerhart surge to the front of the Heisman pack against the Irish’s porous defense.

The Pick…Stanford

This week’s prediction post takes on a different approach after having read Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News make his case for Stanford. While applauding his gumption for sticking his neck out in defense of the home town team, I found myself agreeing with, well, none of it.

As such, I have to offer my counter. Wilner’s 10 reasons the Cardinal will win are summarized to keep this thing from turning into a novella.

10. Wilner says: Stanford plays disciplined defense which will make up for a disadvantage in speed.
OTP says: The Cardinal are 7th against the run in the Pac-10. Before last Saturday, USC was giving up roughly 80 yards a game on the ground. Oregon totaled 392. Discipline or not, the Cardinal aren’t good enough on defense to stop Oregon.

9. Wilner says: Chris Owusu, who has taken three kicks back for touchdowns, is due to break a big return beacause he hasn’t in awhile.
OTP says: Stanford and Oregon are the top two teams in covering kickoffs. I doubt either will break down this week even against stellar returners. And as we’ll see later, Wilner has a penchant for figuring something will happen on the sole basis that it’s due. In that case, I’d like to bet everything I have on black.

8. Wilner says: Stanford ruined Oregon’s big season in 2001.
OTP says: Cute fact and completely irrelevant for a game being played in 2009.

7. Wilner says: The Cardinal believe they can win and almost did a year ago with a gimpy Toby Gerhart and no Andrew Luck.
OTP says: Oh my God! And the Ducks don’t have LeGarrette Blount like they did last year! Okay, give Wilner credit. He’s getting closer to having something to do with 2009. Still pretty irrelevant, though, considering the conditions of that game were terrible.

FOTB Pick

6. Wilner says: Masoli played a clunker in his last game in the Bay Area against California.
OTP says: Yikes! That’s three completely irrelevant points in a row. The Cal game was played in roughly three feet of standing water. Masoli has never played well in rainy conditions. Saturday’s forecast is all sunshine.

5. Wilner says: Only USC has gone undefeated in Pac-10 play this decade so Oregon is due to lose eventually.
OTP says: Perhaps the most irrelevant point of all. Oregon is playing Stanford, not some mystic voodoo that disallows a team from winning all its games.

4. Wilner says: The game is played on grass which will slow Oregon’s speed, but not effect Stanford’s physicality.
OTP says: Maybe. The Ducks have only played one game on grass this year and it was their worst offensive output of the season. It was also without Jeremiah Masoli and LaMichael James was still well over 100 yards. Pretty sure the playing surface won’t mean a thing when Oregon’s at full strength.

3. Wilner says: Stanford’s wine and cheese crowd will have a reverse atmosphere effect and lull the Ducks to sleep.
OTP says: Really? This is the third best reason Stanford wins? There will be plenty of atmosphere courtesy of the thousands of Duck fans expected to attend.

2. Wilner says: It’s good to play teams after they faced USC. Oregon is primed for a letdown. Stanford is rested coming off of a bye.
OTP says: Uh oh, Stanford is outscoring opponents 109-21 under Jim Harbaugh coming off of a bye week.  What? That was against Washington State, San Jose State and Notre Dame? Really, they even lost to 3-9 Notre Dame? Scary. Well, what about teams letting down after playing USC? A quick fact check reveals Oregon is 6-1 this decade following games against the Trojans.

1. Wilner says: Stanford controls the ball with it’s power running game against an undersized Oregon defense. They mix in some play-action passes and the net result is less possession time for Oregon. Stanford will score at will in the second half while the Ducks offense sputters from its lack of rhythm.
OTP says: Ok, if Stanford does win, this is probably how it happens. However, the blog would like to dip into an overused cliche and channel Lee Corso with it’s first “Not so fast my friend!” of the season. Oregon is two seconds from being in last place for time of possession. You can go on long drives all you want. It takes IBM’s Roadrunner supercomputer more time to run 2+2 than it does for the Ducks to score (too geeky? Yeah, thought so). As for wearing Oregon down in the second half, well Mr. Wilner, it hasn’t happened yet, so it’s bound to happen now. Right?

I’ll do some straight-forward rankings this week. Wouldn’t want to confuse anyone again with anymore blatant and obvious sarcasm.

For what it’s worth, if you take issue with my top three, I did it three different times putting each of the teams in the number one spot until I finally settled on the current order.

1. USC (4-1, 2-1)
Like I said, I wrote this two other ways with both Stanford and Oregon number one before settling on the Trojans. These guys are the long-standing champ and while I’d pick Oregon to win head-to-head right now, there’s something about the Trojan mystique in big games that just makes you feel like you have to beat them to deserve the top spot.

2. Stanford (4-1, 3-0)
This is more of a nod to their 3-0 record than anything else. They have looked great and should be ranked. I’m sold on them in the top three of the conference and I wouldn’t be surprised to see their only two losses come against Oregon and USC. Most teams are going to have a hard time stopping their rushing attack behind Toby Gerhart.

3. Oregon (4-1, 2-0)
I want to see Oregon on the road this week before anointing them all the way back from the opening game debacle in Boise. I don’t think there’s a team playing better football than the Ducks in the Pac-10 at the moment, but they also are coming off of a four game homestand which can be very comforting. Games at UCLA and Washington this month will give a more complete indication of the Duck’s national worthiness.

4. Arizona (3-1, 1-0)
I don’t think I’m alone when I say I’m not sold on Arizona yet. The win on the road at Oregon State came in September and everyone beats the Beavers in the first month. The rest of the conference hasn’t performed that well, so I think they’re fourth best more by default than by merit. A win at Washington this week would be good, but not enough to change my mind yet.

5. Oregon State (3-2, 1-1)
Hmmm, the Beavers just won a game they might have been expected to lose just after you had written them off. Must be October. I think scientists should investigate how it’s possible for a team to perform so poorly in September, then be so good in the months that follow. Since 2004, the Beavers are 9-12 in September and 31-11 in every other month.

6. Washington (2-3, 1-1)
This is a classic “next year” team that can ruin your present season. They just don’t quite have the “it” factor to contend at the top, but they certainly have enough – especially at home – to beat anyone on any given day. Oregon beware.

7. UCLA (3-1, 0-1)
They failed the Stanford test, mostly for a lack of offense. Based on what I saw, they’ll win a few games on the strength of their defense, but they don’t seem to be a threat to the top three.

8. Arizona State (2-1)
It doesn’t look like much is going right in Tempe. They got blitzed early by Oregon State and didn’t have a competent enough offense to make up for it. The bottom three teams, as of early October, look set to me. Maybe Cal gets it turned around, but I think ASU is in for a long season.

9. California (3-2, 0-2)
The Bears now have six points in conference play through two games. It might be too early to say it, but seriously, Andy Ludwig? Was that really the best hire? I’m no longer sure Cal is even a bowl team. It’s one thing to lose to the top teams in the conference, but it’s a whole other story when the margin of defeat has been 72-6.

10.Washington State (1-4, 0-3)
Instead of mocking the Cougars this week, I’m taking the high road. I’m just not going to say anything at all.