Visual rendition of Oregon vs. New Mexico

1. Oregon Ducks. I once was on a basketball team that was up 46-1 at halftime. I used to think that was a beating. Then Saturday happened.

2. Arizona Wildcats. If we were to make judgments about the whole season based on one week of play, we’d all be very interested in Arizona @ Oregon on Nov. 26.

3. USC Trojans. Only Washington State gave up more points on opening weekend and the Cougars pretty much give up the most points every week. So there you go, your 2010 Trojans, where the defense is better than Washington State.

4. Oregon State Beavers. The loss to TCU isn’t the end of the world. In fact, it’s basically business as usual in Corvallis. But still, it’s disappointing. OSU needs to start winning some of these games.

5. Stanford Cardinal. Not much to take from a game against Sacramento State. In fact, I got nothing.

6. Cal Bears. Not much to take from a game against UC Davis. In fact, I got nothing.

7. Arizona State Sun Devils. Not much to take from a game against Portland State. In fact, I got nothing. Whew, wearing out the copy and paste function here, people.

8. Washington Huskies. Here, I found a song for all you media types who keep shoving Jake Locker down our throats. Skip to 1:07 on the video. 54% completion percentage and another loss. These are the facts.

9. UCLA Bruins. Bad quarterbacking, bad defense and the schedule only gets harder. The rest of the month goes Stanford, Houston, @ Texas. Ouch.

10. Washington State. This was the most disappointing performance of the weekend with apologies to UW, OSU and UCLA. The Cougars looked as bad as ever and you have to question if Paul Wulff is making any progress. No wait, you don’t have to question that. It’s obvious that he’s not.

Image courtesy of http://www.marktoon.co.uk/people.htm (with an obvious personal alteration).

One thing I never run out of is correct picks. 55-20 a year ago is pretty dang good, right? Just in case it’s too easy, I’ve added picks against the spread this season.

All odds are based on published lines at sportbook.com at time of posting.

Last Season: 55-20

USC @ Hawaii
Who’s excited for some Lane Kiffin? I almost wish I had stayed in Hawaii a couple more days and hopped over to Oahu to see Troy burn. I mean, losing to Hawaii to start your season…it’s going to be painful.

Ah, who am I kidding? Not even Kiffin can mess this game up. Well, I guess he could. Actually, now that I give it a serious thought, it could happen. And it would be awesome. Except the blog always roots for the Pac-10. Always.

Straight Up: USC
ATS: USC -21

Straight Up: Arizona
ATS: Arizona -15.5

Straight Up: UCLA
ATS: UCLA +1.5

Straight Up: Oregon
ATS: Oregon -34

Straight Up: Cal
ATS: OFF

Straight Up: Stanford
ATS: OFF

Straight Up: Oklahoma State
ATS: Washington State +15.5

This is actually a tough pick. I and every other reasonable person (RE: Duck fans) don’t get the Locker hype, but BYU is breaking in a new QB. I think I have to go with home field advantage here.

Straight Up: BYU
ATS: BYU -2

Straight Up: TCU
ATS: Oregon State +13.5

Straight Up: Arizona State
ATS: OFF

Where all blog posts should orginate

Sure, I’m at the end of a Maui honeymoon, but that wouldn’t stop me from spending significant time reading up on the subject of Pac-12 alignment strategies (WOTB says…divorce please!).

When I saw this morning on Jon Wilner’s blog that the Pac-12 may be leaning toward a North-South split, I screamed “Nooooo!” Well, I wanted to, but the people staying next to us might have found that weird.

Now, I know Larry Scott has a team of financially inclined people doing intense research into what makes the most sense for revenue projections, but I can’t find a better alignment than what has been proposed at Pac12Cooler.com for over a month now. You can argue some semantics such as competitive balance, but it’s the right concept. As an Oregon fan, I obviously want to play USC every year, but it’s not realistic. Some concessions have to be made and when 11 other teams think they have a rivalry with USC, it’s just not going to happen for everyone.

Most people seem to agree that a “zipper” split of teams makes the most sense competitively and I’m not going to rehash an argument that’s been well-made over the summer. Instead, I want to dive in to two issues that are potential problems with this alignment.

Maximizing Southern California Exposure For Those Getting Left Out
Each year, there are eight home conference games played in LA (excluding UCLA vs. USC). That leaves a total of three teams each year that won’t be playing in southern California. If this is the sticking point for so many schools, it makes sense to have the Pac-12 facilitate a neutral site kickoff game in LA against a team from another BCS conference for teams that otherwise would be skipping that region for the year.

Maybe you do it for one team, perhaps a double-header can be arranged. I wouldn’t think all three teams could get a game played but if this helps fill the “LA” gap for teams more often than not, it’s a worthy idea to explore (not to mention, it gives the Pac-12 an early “hype” game for TV purposes…unless, of course, we’re talking WSU).

There are plenty of logistics I’m ignoring (ticket sales and scheduling chief among them). I’d also imagine that USC, UCLA, Cal and Stanford would want in on that national exposure kickoff game for themselves on occasion (perhaps they can play one in Seattle and get that coveted Northwest exposure).

I’m just an idea guy, though, so I leave the logistics to the comments (and admittedly, I’m a guy that got his idea from an overlooked comment at Pac 12 Cooler).

Solving Rivalry Game Problems in the Zipper Split
The primary issue around the zipper split of schools is that rivalry games need to be played earlier in the season since they are cross-divisional. The tradition of playing this game last is important to some people as it adds significance.

Okay, so maybe we ask ESPN to come up with the slogan, but you get the idea.

But this isn’t a problem. It’s actually a marketing opportunity for the conference. Take the first weekend of every November and make it rivalry weekend. Give it a snazzy name like Showdown Saturday (just consult ESPN, they’re great with alliteration). All 12 teams would play that day and all against their primary conference rival.

From there, each team could have 2-3 more games left and all could be against teams within their division. This would create more drama and hype as we come down the stretch. Rivalry weekend would kick off the race to the conference crown. All of November would have a pennant chase feel to it culminating in a championship game between two teams that haven’t played each other since October at the earliest (if it all).

Again, logistics will be a problem. Not every rivalry game is going to get national exposure with six games on the schedule, but they can be split across various ESPN outlets, a second partner (i.e. FSN, Versus, Comcast) and perhaps even the much discussed Pac-12 network.

I won’t touch the scheduling nightmare that may be created, but if the idea’s good enough, it seems workable.

1. Oregon. Reading last year’s prediction post, I feel kind of smart. I’d like to be right again, but that will pretty much entirely depend on who’s running the offense and how well they’re doing it. Every aspect of this team is a sure thing (kickers aside) except for the most important position, quarterback. That’s a strange dynamic that’s hard to predict. I like to think back to Tennessee in 1998. They had a great team returning but had lost Peyton Manning. The Volunteers went on to win a national title with first year starter and senior Tee Martin at quarterback. So there’s the blue print Nate Costa.

2. Oregon State. I’m going all Oregon this year. I rarely – if ever – predict the Beavers correctly so take that for what it’s worth. I’m looking forward to their 1-4 start followed by a hot streak that ends with a Civil War loss to deny them a Rose Bowl. It’s more predictable than 2 + 2 and it’s a pattern I can live with.

3. Arizona. Not comfortable with this at all and it’s awkward leaving USC so far down the list. But for once, I think I actually like what Mike Stoops has going. Mind you, not a fan of the guy…just sayin’ it could be a good year.

4. USC. Ok, ok, let’s throw the Trojans in here, huh? You didn’t think I’d completely bury them, did you? I don’t know why everyone is so certain the Trojans will bounce back and dominate again. On what basis? A new coach that gets worse with every promotion he gets? Fewer scholarship players? Incredible turmoil throughout the entire program? What about that screams championship season? Frankly, I want to put them about 6th, but I’m not that dumb.

5. Washington. Is Off The Pond saying they’re back? No. But middle of the pack suits them well this year. They still have a running back taking the snaps and the talent level still isn’t on par with the elite teams in the conference. I cringe to say it, but I do think this could be a good year for the Huskies with a few breaks. As much as I dislike Jake Locker, I’ll bet he has a good year.

6. Stanford. Teams 2-6 I feel are going to get real jumbled up. So having Stanford here isn’t necessarily saying they’ll have a bad year, but just that it’s too competitive at the top and without Toby Gerhart, I need to see some proof.

7. Cal. Oh, Tedford, remember when Oregon fans wanted you as their coach? Remember when Cal was a top 10 team going blow for blow with USC? Yeah, that’s not happening anymore.

8. UCLA. The Bruins just feel so nondescript these days. This is a school that should have amazing, name-brand athletes, but little seems to ever pan out from their recruiting classes. I think they’ll be better, but there’s just not much room for them to move up in the conference this year.

9. Arizona State. Another team that seems devoid of any significant names on the roster. They just don’t scare you at all. They should, but there’s eight better teams in this conference.

10. Washington State. Mom always said if you don’t have anything nice to say, don’t say anything at all. Well, actually, I do have something nice to say. Thank you Cougs for guaranteeing I’ll always get at least 10% of my picks right.

And no mom, it’s not H1N1, so settle down. But, Chip, don’t think I’m not still winning the day.

Last Week: 3-1
Season: 49-19

Arizona @ Arizona State
I’m not sure what these two teams traditionally call their rivalry game but this year, let’s just go with the “Downer Derby.” ASU lost any hope of avoiding a losing season and still having bowl eligibility a week ago. Arizona rushed the field to celebrate their run for the roses,  but forgot all NCAA sanctioned games last 60 minutes before ending. Now, they trudge their depressed football corpses onto the field to salvage the next best thing – whatever that may be.

The Pick…Arizona

Washington State @ Washington
While it would be hilarious to watch the Cougars win the Crapple Cup again, I can’t see how this could happen. Even Washington should beat these guys by 20. And they probably will.

The Pick…Washington

UCLA @ USC
Ooh, the intrigue. Could the dynasty in L.A. officially be over as procalimed by the UCLA marketing department at the start of Rick Neuheisel’s tenure? I doubt it. In fact, I think people are making too much of the end of this dynasty. It’s still the same coach with the same caliber of players. Perhaps the Pac-10 has caught up, but that doesn’t mean USC won’t be right there again in 2010. As for the present day, I think it’ll be close, but the home field edge gives the game to the Trojans.

The Pick…USC

Notre Dame  @ Stanford
Call me a Pac-10 homer, but after seeing mark Ingram against Auburn, the nation’s best running back will be on display tonight against Notre Dame. Jim Harbaugh’s the kind of coach who will try and pad his guy’s numbers and I’ll bet we see Toby Gerhart surge to the front of the Heisman pack against the Irish’s porous defense.

The Pick…Stanford

FOTB Prediction: White helmet, white with carbon jersey, steel pants, white shoes. Who did this to my school? You can simulate this combination here.

Once again, the blog is getting economical. You’d think the time saving would have resulted in better prognosticating, but alas, I suffered my worst week of the season. That’s okay, like Oregon in the desert, Saturday is all about redemption (well, that and playing for a Rose Bowl).

Last Week: 2-3
Season: 46-18

Arizona State @ UCLA
Hey, I was just kidding about that Wazzu pick last week. No wait, I was just trying to rally the Cougs to their only win of the Pac-10 season. No, that’s not it either. Did I really just pick Washington State because I thought they could win? Wow, that was dumb.

This week, I’m a Bruin believer. Both teams are pretty mediocre so it stands to reason the home team should win, right? A UCLA win would give the Pac-10 its seventh bowl eligible team.

The Pick…UCLA

Oregon State @ Washington State
Sorry Cougars, that was my one and only try with you guys. This week, your battle is simply to hold the Beavers under 50. Unlike some Oregon State players, I root for my rival in situations like this. What could be better than a Civil War for the Rose Bowl on national TV?

The Pick…Oregon State

California @ Stanford
Okay, so I thought Cal was cooked. I was certain Arizona would beat the Bears. Now, I’m just as sure that Stanford will win this game by at least two touchdowns. And I’d say more if not for the rivalry aspect. The Cardinal are just killing teams right now. They still don’t have much on defense, but who cares when you’re rolling up 50 every weekend?

The Pick…Stanford

FOTB Pick

Oregon @ Arizona
The Ducks would be 10-0 if this blog had been right every week. Once again, I’m putting some spectacular homerism on display. This game is not going to be easy. The Wildcats are tough at home and something about road games in Tuscon just scare the crap out of me. Maybe it’s that whole quarterback injury thing. I can’t handle another result like the one in 2007. It would end me. Please, Oregon, for the sake of my will to live, win this game.

The Pick…Oregon

Bonus Pick: Lee Corso Head Gear
That’s right, I’m guessing what another person will guess. Corso has donned the Duck head every time the College GameDay show has come to Eugene. Will he brush off his love of the Oregon mascot and succumb to the temptation of picking this GameDay virgin? Corso may have already shot his wad (hey! he said it, okay?) in Eugene but he’s got another one in him. It’s more Duck headgear for the Sunshine Scooter.

The Pick…Corso wears Donald and the UO immediately files an injuction against ESPN for using…oh wait, Disney owns them, it’s okay.

FOTB Prediction: Black helmet, black jersey, steel pants, black shoes. This in no way looks anything like the University of Oregon. You can simulate this combination here.

The blog is making budget cuts this week and streamlining its efforts into one, efficient post.  Call it a corporate reorganization. As such, the normal Oregon-centric preview post has been downsized into the Pac-10 Picks to create more synergy.

After a 3-2 effort last week, the deliverables weren’t good enough. It was clear the blog was spread too thin and needed to make its efforts more dynamic. Without a doubt, the user experience has been enhanced with this innovative move into a result-driven realignment.

Last Week: 3-2
Season: 44-15

Stanford @ USC
Some will have you believe that the Trojans are cracking and the dynasty is about to come crashing down. Such reports are premature. The Trojans finish the season with three straight at the Dump. Huh? It’s called the Memorial Coliseum? I thought they played at a dump. I’ll be damned. I mean, give them credit, they’ve won 46 of 47 there, but I really thought it was a dump (yep, still bitter about 2006).

The Pick…USC

Washington @ Oregon State
The Civil War looms. The Beavers have only to get through a tour of the college football wasteland that is the state of Washington to bring possible Rose Bowl hopes into the game. The Beavers win – and you can scribble the W in pen right now – will make it 12 in a row for the state of Oregon against the “preeminent” program of the Northwest.

The Pick…Oregon State

UCLA @ Washington State
This is the dumbest pick I’ve made all year. I mean, who picks Washington State for anything? This is such a bad team. But this is also a rallying cry for the Cougars to nail down a Pac-10 win. The game day high in Pullman is going to be 34. UCLA needs this win for bowl eligibility so maybe they fight through it, but I feel like picking an upset and where better to do it than in the Pac-10′s most irrelevant game of the year?

The Pick…Washington State

Arizona @ California
Hopeful Duck fans aside, I don’t think Cal can stay any closer than two touchdowns. One team is surging with confidence after years of bad football. The other just can’t seem to get things to go their way this season. And I don’t mind Arizona winning. In fact, I kind of hope they do. it would set up a huge showdown between ranked teams and it’s just more fun that way. Besides, if Oregon wants the Rose Bowl, it needs to win their games and not rely on complicated tiebreaking scenarios (not that this blog doesn’t enjoy wasting time on such things).

FOTB Pick

The Pick…Arizona

Arizona State @ Oregon
Oregon gets their third straight freshman quarterback. It seems safe to say that Brock Osweiler won’t be as dangerous as Andrew Luck given ASU’s offensive ineptitude this year. And as for the Sun Devils “stout” run defense, the last time a team surrendering fewer than 90 yards per game on the ground came to Autzen, they got burned for almost 400. Given that it’s an entirely different team and scenario, that might seem like a meaningless line, but it would count as expert analysis if my name was Jon Wilner.

The Pick…Oregon

Basketball Bonus Pick: Winston-Salem State @ Oregon
The official “Save Ernie Kent’s Job” tour begins with non-conference creampuff number 1.

The Pick…Oregon

1. Oregon (7-2, 5-1)
I ain’t worried. Seriously, I’m not worried. Oregon’s body of work is still too good to justify anyone else at the top. With two of three at home and its closest competitor still having a game at USC, the Ducks remain in a great position.

2. Arizona (6-2, 4-1)
I’m taking the same approach I used with Oregon and USC before. The Wildcats have to beat Oregon to earn the top spot. From what I’ve seen this year, the Ducks are still the top team in the Pac-10 regardless of what happened in Palo Alto. It’s shaping up to be a huge game in the desert between the Pac-10′s leaders.

3. Oregon State (6-3, 4-2)
If OSU and Stanford both win out and Arizona loses to at least Oregon and USC, Oregon State is Rose Bowl bound. Didn’t see that one coming and it’s more plausible than I realized. And by “more plausible,” I mean its likelihood is slightly above “no chance in hell.” With only the Washington schools left before the Civil War, we can pretty much bank on the Beavers entering the game at 6-2.

4. Stanford-(6-3, 5-2)
They did a great job against Oregon, but I’m not convinced they have staying power. Their style of play matched up really well with a depleted and undersized Oregon defense. USC has the size and power to handle Stanford and with the game in L.A. this week, I’m betting on the Trojans.

5. USC (7-2, 4-2)
I don’t like the way they’re playing. However, at home, this team is pretty much unbeatable. Stanford won’t have their way with USC the way they did with Oregon and we should see the Trojans move up quickly.

6. California (6-3, 3-3)
The Jahvid Best touchdown play was about as crazy a thing as you will see in football. It’s unbelievable all he got was a concussion. Head injuries are a serious deal, but in this case, it’s a good thing compared to what could have been. Aside from that, the Bears just aren’t as good as we all thought this season. Jeff Tedford is establishing quite the trend of underachieving teams.

7. Arizona State (4-5, 2-4)
They shouldn’t have played USC that close, right? Sure, they have a good defense, but the offense is pretty anemic. They should provide a good bounce back opponent for the Ducks this week.

8. UCLA (4-5, 1-5)
Congratulations Bruins! You snapped a five game losing streak and ensured a strong likelihood of the Huskies continuing their run of losing seasons that pleases Duck fans to no end.

9. Washington (3-6, 2-4)
The Huskies are back alright. Well, back in the standings where they’ve been for the last few years, at least. Washington is now firmly en route to yet another losing season.

10.Washington State (1-8, 0-6)
Arizona did what everyone does and dismantled a very bad team. How do the Cougars recover from this mess?

With regards to the Rose Bowl race, we can safely ignore mathematically eliminated UCLA and Washington State. Both teams are currently at 0-5 in conference play and just waiting to play each other to figure out once and for all who is worse.

Let’s also remove Washington and Arizona State, two teams that could technically finish ahead of Oregon but only if the Ducks’ quarterback somehow became injured for the season leading to a slew of losses. It’s just such an unlikely scenario. Oh wait….

That leaves us with the teams below. There is actually a significant amount of work left for Oregon given that it hasn’t played three of these teams.

At 5-0 and as the only undefeated team, Oregon is the ruler of its destiny. As such, the take on who to root for this week is all about the national title picture. Sure, we could all pull for teams like USC and UA to lose, but it puts a ceiling on Oregon’s season that we don’t yet need. Perhaps after this weekend, I’ll get more into tie-breaker scenarios. It’s just too convoluted for that right now.

In chasing faint hopes of a national title game appearance, there’s very little guesswork in what to cheer for. There are only two games here that are open to interpretation.

California @ Arizona State
I kind of believe in Cal. The way they got drilled by Oregon and USC makes you wonder a little bit, but there’s no reason they should lose to Arizona State, even if it’s on the road.

The Pick…California

UCLA @ Oregon State
The Beavers looked good against USC and Sean Canfield was especially impressive. They could win out from here setting up a Civil War showdown. Wouldn’t it be something if they end up with a chance to knock Oregon out of the Rose Bowl? God, I’m even getting ahead of myself in talking about the Beavers. Must. Calm. Down.

The Pick…Oregon State

Washington State @ Notre Dame (in San Antonio)
Okay, this is the week, Washington State. We’re all rooting for you. There’s no way you have it in you, but dammit, we’re still going to root for it!

The Pick…Notre Dame

USC @ Oregon
Must. Calm. Down.

The Pick…Oregon