The Pac-10 bowl schedule has been finalized with one potential addition left that may send UCLA to to the Eagle Bank Bowl. Not sure if a game against Temple is what the Bruins had in mind when they declared USC’s dynasty to be officially over, but hey, it’s a start.

Pac-10 teams will be playing a pretty even slate of opponents for the most part. Oregon and Arizona both play teams ranked about the same. Oregon State and Cal will play up against higher ranked teams with better records. Stanford and USC have lower ranked opponents with similar records.

The matchups feature opponents from the Big Ten, Big 12, ACC and Mountain West. Despite the fact 10 SEC teams will play in a bowl game, none are against the Pac-10 because the conferences don’t have any contracted matchups. The Big East is also absent from the bowl schedule.

* Note: All times are pacific.

It’s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a weekend of football knowing that no matter what happens, Oregon is in the Rose Bowl. Ain’t it sweet?

Last Week: 4-0
Season: 54-19

Arizona @ USC
After witnessing the Beavers valiant effort Thursday night, I’m carrying the “Beavers to the Holiday Bowl” flag. They deserve it. So with that said, I’m passing them positive mojo from a blog that has mostly picked well this season and yelling loud…Go Cats! If the Beavers get into a four-way tie for second with Arizona, Cal and Stanford, an argument can be made for the Beavers despite their loss to Arizona early in the season.

Of course, none of that says anything about Arizona vs. USC. I didn’t get to see the Trojans game against UCLA, but there’s not much to like about the way USC has played in the second half of the season. I think the Wildcats have the motivation USC will be lacking. The pac-10 is hungry to eat at the Trojans table and I think Arizona will be the latest to burn down Troy.

The Pick…Arizona

California @ Washington
The only other game on the schedule Saturday is an odd one. I’m not sure why Cal is playing Washington on the last weekend of the season. Perhaps the Pac-10 just wanted to give the Huskies a chance to play in December. It doesn’t happen often and there is no bowl in UW’s future so this is it. Washington probably wants to put one final stamp on a season that featured a lot of progress in the early half and set themselves up for a better 2010. A win for Cal and they finish 9-3 after seeing their season take an ugly turn in back-to-back weekends against Oregon and USC. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Washington win this game,  but I’m not risking it.

The Pick…California

Almost forgot this week’s picks amidst a sickness that has taken hold and forced me into a semi-comatose state of  being where all I can do is lay still and watch football. Well, that, and the only game left that matters is on Thursday, so what’s the point?

And no mom, it’s not H1N1, so settle down. But, Chip, don’t think I’m not still winning the day.

Last Week: 3-1
Season: 49-19

Arizona @ Arizona State
I’m not sure what these two teams traditionally call their rivalry game but this year, let’s just go with the “Downer Derby.” ASU lost any hope of avoiding a losing season and still having bowl eligibility a week ago. Arizona rushed the field to celebrate their run for the roses,  but forgot all NCAA sanctioned games last 60 minutes before ending. Now, they trudge their depressed football corpses onto the field to salvage the next best thing – whatever that may be.

The Pick…Arizona

Washington State @ Washington
While it would be hilarious to watch the Cougars win the Crapple Cup again, I can’t see how this could happen. Even Washington should beat these guys by 20. And they probably will.

The Pick…Washington

UCLA @ USC
Ooh, the intrigue. Could the dynasty in L.A. officially be over as procalimed by the UCLA marketing department at the start of Rick Neuheisel’s tenure? I doubt it. In fact, I think people are making too much of the end of this dynasty. It’s still the same coach with the same caliber of players. Perhaps the Pac-10 has caught up, but that doesn’t mean USC won’t be right there again in 2010. As for the present day, I think it’ll be close, but the home field edge gives the game to the Trojans.

The Pick…USC

Notre Dame  @ Stanford
Call me a Pac-10 homer, but after seeing mark Ingram against Auburn, the nation’s best running back will be on display tonight against Notre Dame. Jim Harbaugh’s the kind of coach who will try and pad his guy’s numbers and I’ll bet we see Toby Gerhart surge to the front of the Heisman pack against the Irish’s porous defense.

The Pick…Stanford

The race for the Rose Bowl is simpler in some ways, more complicated in others. For Oregon, it’s more clear than ever that winning out is the only realistic way to get the conference bid to Pasadena. In that sense, it’s simple. Just root for Oregon and all is well. Of course, a loss opens up a lot of ties and that’s where it gets messy. It might help if you brush up on your Rose Bowl Selection Procedures.

Teams Remaining in the Rose Bowl Hunt.

Note: USC got left in the race for the fact they can still win a six-way tie. It would be perfectly typical to see USC pull this one out.

Edit: Just found this link which does a superb job of breaking down the Rose Bowl race for all remaining Pac-10 contenders. Check that out if you have even more time to spare.

So Many Scenarios…

The lesson to be learned for the second straight week is that Oregon needs to win out. There is only one somewhat realistic scenario remaining that allows the Ducks to lose another game. In that scenario, Oregon still finishes alone in first. There is actually only one scenario I can find where Oregon ties for first and still gets the Rose Bowl bid. It involves OSU losing to WSU.

Note: No, WSU is not going to beat OSU this weekend and you can remove about half the scenarios on this chart as a result.

Note x2: These scenarios all involve Oregon and are not the end of the discussion. If Oregon loses out, a number of other combinations not involving the Ducks will play out.

Note x3: Arizona, despite the loss, still controls its own destiny.

The Week Ahead and Who to Root For

This isn’t hard. Pour yourself a beverage, root for the contenders to lose, pull for Oregon to win and everything will be oh so lovely.

The blog is making budget cuts this week and streamlining its efforts into one, efficient post.  Call it a corporate reorganization. As such, the normal Oregon-centric preview post has been downsized into the Pac-10 Picks to create more synergy.

After a 3-2 effort last week, the deliverables weren’t good enough. It was clear the blog was spread too thin and needed to make its efforts more dynamic. Without a doubt, the user experience has been enhanced with this innovative move into a result-driven realignment.

Last Week: 3-2
Season: 44-15

Stanford @ USC
Some will have you believe that the Trojans are cracking and the dynasty is about to come crashing down. Such reports are premature. The Trojans finish the season with three straight at the Dump. Huh? It’s called the Memorial Coliseum? I thought they played at a dump. I’ll be damned. I mean, give them credit, they’ve won 46 of 47 there, but I really thought it was a dump (yep, still bitter about 2006).

The Pick…USC

Washington @ Oregon State
The Civil War looms. The Beavers have only to get through a tour of the college football wasteland that is the state of Washington to bring possible Rose Bowl hopes into the game. The Beavers win – and you can scribble the W in pen right now – will make it 12 in a row for the state of Oregon against the “preeminent” program of the Northwest.

The Pick…Oregon State

UCLA @ Washington State
This is the dumbest pick I’ve made all year. I mean, who picks Washington State for anything? This is such a bad team. But this is also a rallying cry for the Cougars to nail down a Pac-10 win. The game day high in Pullman is going to be 34. UCLA needs this win for bowl eligibility so maybe they fight through it, but I feel like picking an upset and where better to do it than in the Pac-10’s most irrelevant game of the year?

The Pick…Washington State

Arizona @ California
Hopeful Duck fans aside, I don’t think Cal can stay any closer than two touchdowns. One team is surging with confidence after years of bad football. The other just can’t seem to get things to go their way this season. And I don’t mind Arizona winning. In fact, I kind of hope they do. it would set up a huge showdown between ranked teams and it’s just more fun that way. Besides, if Oregon wants the Rose Bowl, it needs to win their games and not rely on complicated tiebreaking scenarios (not that this blog doesn’t enjoy wasting time on such things).

FOTB Pick

The Pick…Arizona

Arizona State @ Oregon
Oregon gets their third straight freshman quarterback. It seems safe to say that Brock Osweiler won’t be as dangerous as Andrew Luck given ASU’s offensive ineptitude this year. And as for the Sun Devils “stout” run defense, the last time a team surrendering fewer than 90 yards per game on the ground came to Autzen, they got burned for almost 400. Given that it’s an entirely different team and scenario, that might seem like a meaningless line, but it would count as expert analysis if my name was Jon Wilner.

The Pick…Oregon

Basketball Bonus Pick: Winston-Salem State @ Oregon
The official “Save Ernie Kent’s Job” tour begins with non-conference creampuff number 1.

The Pick…Oregon

This week’s “Who to Root For” gets a lot trickier, but at least we don’t have to follow that pesky national scene anymore. Who wanted that, anyway? Certainly not this ever-optimistic, pie-in-the-sky blog.

The Ducks ceiling is now the Rose Bowl and they remain in great position even after losing to Stanford. I’m going to warn you right now, though. The best thing you can do is stop reading and just root for Oregon to win three more games. But if not…well, good luck interpreting what remains below. It might help if you brush up on your Rose Bowl Selection Procedures.

Teams Remaining in the Rose Bowl Hunt.

Note: Some other teams remain mathematically alive, but it’s being assumed no team with three league losses will win the conference.

Now, Let’s Really Waste Some Time…

There are endless scenarios that could play out. Below is a chart of possible outcomes that explore Oregon’s Rose Bowl chances if they finish in a three-way tie for first. The assumption is made that all contenders will beat non-contenders on their schedule. In other words, a team like Cal is assumed to lose to both Arizona and Stanford. In this case, Oregon has virtually zero chance of winning any tiebreakers because of their loss to Stanford. The Ducks best hope of getting to the Rose Bowl is to win out. Their next best chance is to have Stanford lose to USC and Cal. This would put Stanford lower in the standings and the they’d be less likely to figure into a complicated three-way tiebreaking scenario (see link for Rose Bowl Selection Procedures).

If you have a life and/or don’t want a headache, you can skip reading below and I’ll deliver the bottom line in less than 15 words: Oregon does not want a three-way tie. They need to win out.

Note: I did not explore any two-way tiebreaking scenarios. The problem with those (involving Oregon) is that they are unlikely to happen without significant upsets.
Note x2: These scenarios all involve Oregon and are not the end of the discussion. If Oregon loses two more games, the door opens in a lot of other directions as well.
Note x3: Moral of the story with three-way tiebreakers? Lose to Washington. That’s the reason Arizona and USC are most likely to win these scenarios.
Note x4: Arizona is the only other team to control its own destiny.

The Week Ahead and Who to Root For

For the most part, you’re safe to root for contending teams to lose. However, in some cases, it may help Oregon’s tiebreaking chances for certain contending teams to win. It’s confusing. Really confusing, actually. Like I said above, the best thing you can do is stop reading, turn on your TV Saturday and root for Oregon. It’s much simpler.

As convoluted as the Pac-10 race may seem, it’s actually pretty simple. Arizona and Oregon control their own destiny. The rest do not. Of course, if those two teams add a loss, then it gets interesting. On to the rankings.

1. Oregon (7-2, 5-1)
I ain’t worried. Seriously, I’m not worried. Oregon’s body of work is still too good to justify anyone else at the top. With two of three at home and its closest competitor still having a game at USC, the Ducks remain in a great position.

2. Arizona (6-2, 4-1)
I’m taking the same approach I used with Oregon and USC before. The Wildcats have to beat Oregon to earn the top spot. From what I’ve seen this year, the Ducks are still the top team in the Pac-10 regardless of what happened in Palo Alto. It’s shaping up to be a huge game in the desert between the Pac-10’s leaders.

3. Oregon State (6-3, 4-2)
If OSU and Stanford both win out and Arizona loses to at least Oregon and USC, Oregon State is Rose Bowl bound. Didn’t see that one coming and it’s more plausible than I realized. And by “more plausible,” I mean its likelihood is slightly above “no chance in hell.” With only the Washington schools left before the Civil War, we can pretty much bank on the Beavers entering the game at 6-2.

4. Stanford-(6-3, 5-2)
They did a great job against Oregon, but I’m not convinced they have staying power. Their style of play matched up really well with a depleted and undersized Oregon defense. USC has the size and power to handle Stanford and with the game in L.A. this week, I’m betting on the Trojans.

5. USC (7-2, 4-2)
I don’t like the way they’re playing. However, at home, this team is pretty much unbeatable. Stanford won’t have their way with USC the way they did with Oregon and we should see the Trojans move up quickly.

6. California (6-3, 3-3)
The Jahvid Best touchdown play was about as crazy a thing as you will see in football. It’s unbelievable all he got was a concussion. Head injuries are a serious deal, but in this case, it’s a good thing compared to what could have been. Aside from that, the Bears just aren’t as good as we all thought this season. Jeff Tedford is establishing quite the trend of underachieving teams.

7. Arizona State (4-5, 2-4)
They shouldn’t have played USC that close, right? Sure, they have a good defense, but the offense is pretty anemic. They should provide a good bounce back opponent for the Ducks this week.

8. UCLA (4-5, 1-5)
Congratulations Bruins! You snapped a five game losing streak and ensured a strong likelihood of the Huskies continuing their run of losing seasons that pleases Duck fans to no end.

9. Washington (3-6, 2-4)
The Huskies are back alright. Well, back in the standings where they’ve been for the last few years, at least. Washington is now firmly en route to yet another losing season.

10.Washington State (1-8, 0-6)
Arizona did what everyone does and dismantled a very bad team. How do the Cougars recover from this mess?

Thanks to a suggestion from NautiDuck in a comment yesterday, I’m starting an occasional feature to keep track of who to root for every week. Currently, there are two things in play for Oregon: the Rose Bowl and the National Title game. Both take place in Pasadena.

With regards to the Rose Bowl race, we can safely ignore mathematically eliminated UCLA and Washington State. Both teams are currently at 0-5 in conference play and just waiting to play each other to figure out once and for all who is worse.

Let’s also remove Washington and Arizona State, two teams that could technically finish ahead of Oregon but only if the Ducks’ quarterback somehow became injured for the season leading to a slew of losses. It’s just such an unlikely scenario. Oh wait….

That leaves us with the teams below. There is actually a significant amount of work left for Oregon given that it hasn’t played three of these teams.

At 5-0 and as the only undefeated team, Oregon is the ruler of its destiny. As such, the take on who to root for this week is all about the national title picture. Sure, we could all pull for teams like USC and UA to lose, but it puts a ceiling on Oregon’s season that we don’t yet need. Perhaps after this weekend, I’ll get more into tie-breaker scenarios. It’s just too convoluted for that right now.

In chasing faint hopes of a national title game appearance, there’s very little guesswork in what to cheer for. There are only two games here that are open to interpretation.

I’ve been waiting all year to use the word “perfect.” After calling my shot a week ago, it finally happened. 5-0. Judging by this week’s slate, another perfect week is a distinct possibility.

California @ Arizona State
I kind of believe in Cal. The way they got drilled by Oregon and USC makes you wonder a little bit, but there’s no reason they should lose to Arizona State, even if it’s on the road.

The Pick…California

UCLA @ Oregon State
The Beavers looked good against USC and Sean Canfield was especially impressive. They could win out from here setting up a Civil War showdown. Wouldn’t it be something if they end up with a chance to knock Oregon out of the Rose Bowl? God, I’m even getting ahead of myself in talking about the Beavers. Must. Calm. Down.

The Pick…Oregon State

Washington State @ Notre Dame (in San Antonio)
Okay, this is the week, Washington State. We’re all rooting for you. There’s no way you have it in you, but dammit, we’re still going to root for it!

The Pick…Notre Dame

USC @ Oregon
Must. Calm. Down.

The Pick…Oregon

We’ve been here before. Just two years ago, Oregon stood before the gates of the ruling empire and burned Troy to the ground. It was the end of a dynasty. A new champion had entered the fray. The mighty had fallen.

Except, one game turned out to be just one game and in the end, USC remained as the Pac-10’s dominant team.

It was more bad luck than anything when Oregon couldn’t finish what looked like an inevitable run to the roses – and perhaps more – in 2007. But it serves as a good reminder that Saturday is still just one game.

The moment is huge. The eyes of a college football nation are watching and the judgments will come quick for both victor and the defeated. One will be hailed as a sure Pac-10 champion, the other cast aside as an afterthought for the rest of the season.

But still, it’s just one game. I think.

Oregon fans and players alike will pour every ounce of available emotion into winning this game. And USC will try to match the intensity in an “us-against-the-world” environment on a stage in which they so often thrive. Juggernaut vs. Challenger will feature haymakers countered by uppercuts as two teams who would be champions fight for 60 minutes to lay their claim as commander of the Pac-10 standings.

Bank on it.

But still, it’s just one game. I’m pretty sure.

Only one team can be the best. Only one team can make it’s rise in the national polls and lay claim to whatever fruits of victory may await. Pac-10 crown? National title contender? One team will be a shoe-in for the the former, a contender for the latter.

But still, it’s just one game. Well, maybe a bit more than that.

USC has seven years of unmatched glory. No one has been able to slay the proverbial dragon. Wound it, scratch it, ding it, perhaps, but never anything more. A win for the Ducks would be a win for the conference and a rallying cry for Oregon’s Pac-10 brothers. It would be a call to arms for a league beaten and downtrodden from the years of unforgiving oppression.

No, it’s more than just one game. It’s everything.