It’s time to sit back, relax and enjoy a weekend of football knowing that no matter what happens, Oregon is in the Rose Bowl. Ain’t it sweet?

Last Week: 4-0
Season: 54-19

Arizona @ USC
After witnessing the Beavers valiant effort Thursday night, I’m carrying the “Beavers to the Holiday Bowl” flag. They deserve it. So with that said, I’m passing them positive mojo from a blog that has mostly picked well this season and yelling loud…Go Cats! If the Beavers get into a four-way tie for second with Arizona, Cal and Stanford, an argument can be made for the Beavers despite their loss to Arizona early in the season.

Of course, none of that says anything about Arizona vs. USC. I didn’t get to see the Trojans game against UCLA, but there’s not much to like about the way USC has played in the second half of the season. I think the Wildcats have the motivation USC will be lacking. The pac-10 is hungry to eat at the Trojans table and I think Arizona will be the latest to burn down Troy.

The Pick…Arizona

California @ Washington
The only other game on the schedule Saturday is an odd one. I’m not sure why Cal is playing Washington on the last weekend of the season. Perhaps the Pac-10 just wanted to give the Huskies a chance to play in December. It doesn’t happen often and there is no bowl in UW’s future so this is it. Washington probably wants to put one final stamp on a season that featured a lot of progress in the early half and set themselves up for a better 2010. A win for Cal and they finish 9-3 after seeing their season take an ugly turn in back-to-back weekends against Oregon and USC. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Washington win this game,  but I’m not risking it.

The Pick…California

Almost forgot this week’s picks amidst a sickness that has taken hold and forced me into a semi-comatose state of  being where all I can do is lay still and watch football. Well, that, and the only game left that matters is on Thursday, so what’s the point?

And no mom, it’s not H1N1, so settle down. But, Chip, don’t think I’m not still winning the day.

Last Week: 3-1
Season: 49-19

Arizona @ Arizona State
I’m not sure what these two teams traditionally call their rivalry game but this year, let’s just go with the “Downer Derby.” ASU lost any hope of avoiding a losing season and still having bowl eligibility a week ago. Arizona rushed the field to celebrate their run for the roses,  but forgot all NCAA sanctioned games last 60 minutes before ending. Now, they trudge their depressed football corpses onto the field to salvage the next best thing – whatever that may be.

The Pick…Arizona

Washington State @ Washington
While it would be hilarious to watch the Cougars win the Crapple Cup again, I can’t see how this could happen. Even Washington should beat these guys by 20. And they probably will.

The Pick…Washington

UCLA @ USC
Ooh, the intrigue. Could the dynasty in L.A. officially be over as procalimed by the UCLA marketing department at the start of Rick Neuheisel’s tenure? I doubt it. In fact, I think people are making too much of the end of this dynasty. It’s still the same coach with the same caliber of players. Perhaps the Pac-10 has caught up, but that doesn’t mean USC won’t be right there again in 2010. As for the present day, I think it’ll be close, but the home field edge gives the game to the Trojans.

The Pick…USC

Notre Dame  @ Stanford
Call me a Pac-10 homer, but after seeing mark Ingram against Auburn, the nation’s best running back will be on display tonight against Notre Dame. Jim Harbaugh’s the kind of coach who will try and pad his guy’s numbers and I’ll bet we see Toby Gerhart surge to the front of the Heisman pack against the Irish’s porous defense.

The Pick…Stanford

The blog is making budget cuts this week and streamlining its efforts into one, efficient post.  Call it a corporate reorganization. As such, the normal Oregon-centric preview post has been downsized into the Pac-10 Picks to create more synergy.

After a 3-2 effort last week, the deliverables weren’t good enough. It was clear the blog was spread too thin and needed to make its efforts more dynamic. Without a doubt, the user experience has been enhanced with this innovative move into a result-driven realignment.

Last Week: 3-2
Season: 44-15

Stanford @ USC
Some will have you believe that the Trojans are cracking and the dynasty is about to come crashing down. Such reports are premature. The Trojans finish the season with three straight at the Dump. Huh? It’s called the Memorial Coliseum? I thought they played at a dump. I’ll be damned. I mean, give them credit, they’ve won 46 of 47 there, but I really thought it was a dump (yep, still bitter about 2006).

The Pick…USC

Washington @ Oregon State
The Civil War looms. The Beavers have only to get through a tour of the college football wasteland that is the state of Washington to bring possible Rose Bowl hopes into the game. The Beavers win – and you can scribble the W in pen right now – will make it 12 in a row for the state of Oregon against the “preeminent” program of the Northwest.

The Pick…Oregon State

UCLA @ Washington State
This is the dumbest pick I’ve made all year. I mean, who picks Washington State for anything? This is such a bad team. But this is also a rallying cry for the Cougars to nail down a Pac-10 win. The game day high in Pullman is going to be 34. UCLA needs this win for bowl eligibility so maybe they fight through it, but I feel like picking an upset and where better to do it than in the Pac-10’s most irrelevant game of the year?

The Pick…Washington State

Arizona @ California
Hopeful Duck fans aside, I don’t think Cal can stay any closer than two touchdowns. One team is surging with confidence after years of bad football. The other just can’t seem to get things to go their way this season. And I don’t mind Arizona winning. In fact, I kind of hope they do. it would set up a huge showdown between ranked teams and it’s just more fun that way. Besides, if Oregon wants the Rose Bowl, it needs to win their games and not rely on complicated tiebreaking scenarios (not that this blog doesn’t enjoy wasting time on such things).

FOTB Pick

The Pick…Arizona

Arizona State @ Oregon
Oregon gets their third straight freshman quarterback. It seems safe to say that Brock Osweiler won’t be as dangerous as Andrew Luck given ASU’s offensive ineptitude this year. And as for the Sun Devils “stout” run defense, the last time a team surrendering fewer than 90 yards per game on the ground came to Autzen, they got burned for almost 400. Given that it’s an entirely different team and scenario, that might seem like a meaningless line, but it would count as expert analysis if my name was Jon Wilner.

The Pick…Oregon

Basketball Bonus Pick: Winston-Salem State @ Oregon
The official “Save Ernie Kent’s Job” tour begins with non-conference creampuff number 1.

The Pick…Oregon

As convoluted as the Pac-10 race may seem, it’s actually pretty simple. Arizona and Oregon control their own destiny. The rest do not. Of course, if those two teams add a loss, then it gets interesting. On to the rankings.

1. Oregon (7-2, 5-1)
I ain’t worried. Seriously, I’m not worried. Oregon’s body of work is still too good to justify anyone else at the top. With two of three at home and its closest competitor still having a game at USC, the Ducks remain in a great position.

2. Arizona (6-2, 4-1)
I’m taking the same approach I used with Oregon and USC before. The Wildcats have to beat Oregon to earn the top spot. From what I’ve seen this year, the Ducks are still the top team in the Pac-10 regardless of what happened in Palo Alto. It’s shaping up to be a huge game in the desert between the Pac-10’s leaders.

3. Oregon State (6-3, 4-2)
If OSU and Stanford both win out and Arizona loses to at least Oregon and USC, Oregon State is Rose Bowl bound. Didn’t see that one coming and it’s more plausible than I realized. And by “more plausible,” I mean its likelihood is slightly above “no chance in hell.” With only the Washington schools left before the Civil War, we can pretty much bank on the Beavers entering the game at 6-2.

4. Stanford-(6-3, 5-2)
They did a great job against Oregon, but I’m not convinced they have staying power. Their style of play matched up really well with a depleted and undersized Oregon defense. USC has the size and power to handle Stanford and with the game in L.A. this week, I’m betting on the Trojans.

5. USC (7-2, 4-2)
I don’t like the way they’re playing. However, at home, this team is pretty much unbeatable. Stanford won’t have their way with USC the way they did with Oregon and we should see the Trojans move up quickly.

6. California (6-3, 3-3)
The Jahvid Best touchdown play was about as crazy a thing as you will see in football. It’s unbelievable all he got was a concussion. Head injuries are a serious deal, but in this case, it’s a good thing compared to what could have been. Aside from that, the Bears just aren’t as good as we all thought this season. Jeff Tedford is establishing quite the trend of underachieving teams.

7. Arizona State (4-5, 2-4)
They shouldn’t have played USC that close, right? Sure, they have a good defense, but the offense is pretty anemic. They should provide a good bounce back opponent for the Ducks this week.

8. UCLA (4-5, 1-5)
Congratulations Bruins! You snapped a five game losing streak and ensured a strong likelihood of the Huskies continuing their run of losing seasons that pleases Duck fans to no end.

9. Washington (3-6, 2-4)
The Huskies are back alright. Well, back in the standings where they’ve been for the last few years, at least. Washington is now firmly en route to yet another losing season.

10.Washington State (1-8, 0-6)
Arizona did what everyone does and dismantled a very bad team. How do the Cougars recover from this mess?

Thanks to a suggestion from NautiDuck in a comment yesterday, I’m starting an occasional feature to keep track of who to root for every week. Currently, there are two things in play for Oregon: the Rose Bowl and the National Title game. Both take place in Pasadena.

With regards to the Rose Bowl race, we can safely ignore mathematically eliminated UCLA and Washington State. Both teams are currently at 0-5 in conference play and just waiting to play each other to figure out once and for all who is worse.

Let’s also remove Washington and Arizona State, two teams that could technically finish ahead of Oregon but only if the Ducks’ quarterback somehow became injured for the season leading to a slew of losses. It’s just such an unlikely scenario. Oh wait….

That leaves us with the teams below. There is actually a significant amount of work left for Oregon given that it hasn’t played three of these teams.

At 5-0 and as the only undefeated team, Oregon is the ruler of its destiny. As such, the take on who to root for this week is all about the national title picture. Sure, we could all pull for teams like USC and UA to lose, but it puts a ceiling on Oregon’s season that we don’t yet need. Perhaps after this weekend, I’ll get more into tie-breaker scenarios. It’s just too convoluted for that right now.

In chasing faint hopes of a national title game appearance, there’s very little guesswork in what to cheer for. There are only two games here that are open to interpretation.

Some clarity is found in the top three this week, though I think Arizona could easily fall off in time. As I’ve said before, USC is staying in first until Oregon beats them. It’s my personal campaign to underrate and motivate the team. I can see them now…”Off The Pond thinks were no good! Let’s prove that guy wrong!” Yep, I’m doing my job.

1. USC (6-1, 3-1)
There are some definite vulnerabilities in this team. USC could be in for a rude treatment in Eugene, but I doubt the Trojans will yield its 7-year reign without a serious fight.

2. Oregon (6-1, 4-0)
As a fan, I’m starting to reach 2007 levels of confidence. Very afraid of what happens from here.

3. Arizona (5-2, 3-1)
Five turnovers against UCLA is cause for concern. I’m still not convinced this is the third best team in the Pac-10, but they already beat two of the three candidates for that spot.

4. Oregon State (4-3, 2-2)
It’s more of a hunch than anything the record is showing. They already beat Stanford and Cal needs to beat somebody good before we can pronounce them all the way back.

5. Stanford (5-3, 4-2)
Great at home, bad on the road. It’s just the way it is with Stanford. Unfortunately for Oregon, the Cardinal have the advantage of both a bye and its home field when the Ducks come to Palo Alto in two weeks.

6. California (5-3, 2-2)
They’re on the way back. Sorta’. It’s hard to tell against UCLA and Washington State. There is still a lot of room to move in the standings and we may very well find out Cal is the third best team in this conference by the end of the year. Or not. I don’t really know.

7. Arizona State (4-3, 2-2)
An enigma from one week to the next, but they mostly look like a team destined to miss out on a bowl for the second straight year. If it’s any consolation, they could be the best of what looks like an obvious bottom four.

8. Washington (3-5, 2-3)
It’s looking like an end to the consecutive losing seasons will have to wait another year. Games still remain against Cal and Oregon State and I can’t see them winning either.

9. UCLA (3-4, 0-4)
It’s looking messy in Pasadena. The offense is really, really terrible and they tried three quarterbacks against Arizona State. Washington State might be thinking they have a shot at winning a Pac-10 game.

10.Washington State (1-6, 0-5)
The moral victory parade continues as yet again, the Cougars lose to an opponent by less than they did a year ago.

With reference to the headline, hey, I didn’t say it. That acclaim goes to John Canzano of The Oregonian in what now looks like a gigantic whiff.  We all had our doubts after Boise State, but missing out on bowl eligibility? Quite a reach. Now, 6-1 Oregon goes looking for win number 7. Here’s my Sunday thoughts as we move on.

1. Why is it that every time a national analyst or reporter talks about Oregon, they always preface it with, “Oregon has really turned it around since Boise State.”? At what point do we get to move on from that game? Is it permanently attached to the Ducks reputation or can it possibly be wiped clean by a win over USC? Either way, it’s a virtual guarantee to pop up about 2,837 times this week as the four letter hype machine that is ESPN descends on Eugene (GameDay all but certain to visit).
2. Speaking of everyone’s favorite sports network, if Kirk Herbstreit picks Oregon, I encourage everyone to loudly boo him. I’m pretty sure he has us at 1-3 in conference play so far with his predictions. Thanks Kirk and be sure to bring your tanning lotion. I hear it’s going to be rainy and overcast.
3. I can’t believe how easy the win was against Washington. The Huskies had played everyone competitive including USC and LSU. And who would have expected negative rushing yards from Jake Locker? They didn’t even try anything with him. The only conclusion I can reach is that this team is seriously good.
4. Number of seniors on Oregon’s two-deep against UW: 5. That’s five seniors out of 44 players. A total of three started. Wow.
5. Look for Oregon to request a waiver this week to play 2010 defensive back recruits against USC. There’s hardly anyone left now that Talmadge Jackson is, uh, day to day. Then again, true freshman Cliff Harris looks like he can do it all himself. Alongside fellow freshman John Boyett and sophomores Javes Lewis and Anthony Gildon, boy, the Duck’s future in the defensive backfield is good.
6. Oregon has the best two yard line defense in the nation. I’m sure of it.
7. I’m writing this before the rankings are released, but the Ducks feel undervalued to me. One team that is especially bugging me is Iowa. Good for them for winning every game, but I’m having a hard time accepting the Hawkeyes as a top ten team.
8. A quick, crack analysis of USC… Lot of opportunities passing the football over the middle. Watching the OSU game, the tight end was often open for big gains, but I would expect USC to scheme more for Ed Dickson. The Beavers also had a lot of successful runs straight up the gut. On plays to the outside, USC’s speed advantage was obvious. Matt Barkley is not yet as great as everyone keeps saying. As a true freshman, he stands out, but if you weren’t analyzing him with that disclaimer, he wouldn’t be as celebrated. I know he won at Ohio State and Notre Dame, but, with no offense to tradition, big deal. Autzen Stadium will be a whole different beast. The Trojans are athletic and their talent is relentless. You have to play hard from start to finish to beat them and mistakes must be kept to a minimum. More as the week goes on.

Thanks to friend of the blog Andy for the reminder about Canzano’s “Six Wins” quote. The Ducks got there in record time.

I’m barely getting by here, but you have to understand, it’s the coaching. I can’t take the blame for Jim Harbaugh messing up a game his team mostly dominated. And there’s no way I’m letting Steve Sarkisian and Nick Holt off the hook for that stunt they pulled down in the desert. Nope, 2-2 wasn’t my fault and as such, I find my picks completely passable. This week, coaches be damned, I’m going 5-0.

Oregon @ Washington
The Huskies have been competitive but that doesn’t make them good. Oregon, unfortunately, gets Washington on the road where they have been significantly better. Still, I’d be surprised if the Huskies have enough to win this game. Crowds and passion are great, but in the end, one team’s better than the other and in this case, it’s Oregon by a mile.

The Pick…Oregon with a Jeremiah Masoli caveat. If he doesn’t play, I reserve the right to have this pick annulled.

Washington State @ California
In a league where any team could lose to eight other squads, everyone loves a date with Washington State. Cal’s rehabilitation will look even brighter after Saturday.

The Pick…California with absolutely no caveats whatsoever.

UCLA @ Arizona
Could it be? Are the Mike Stoops-led Wildcats for real? We’ve been promised this for years and I’ll be damned if Arizona doesn’t actually have something brewing finally. This one should be a breeze as UCLA is reeling.

The Pick…Arizona

Oregon State @ USC
Growing up in a Beaver household, I had an atypical upbringing for a Duck fan. I actually find it cool to see OSU in the spotlight like this against USC. Sure, they’ve been winning for 10 years now, but they’ve come a loooooooong way. Still, I have ulterior motives here, so mom, dad, you’ll have to excuse me while I root for the Trojans.

The Pick…USC, but not in a blowout. I don’t think the Trojans really have it in them this year to demolish teams like they have in the past.

Arizona State @ Stanford
I still love you Stanford!! I feel like a jilted lover that can’t let go at this point. We had some good times and I have no idea how it all fell apart. You can still do this guys. You’re back at home where you don’t lose and it’s just Arizona State. Take care of business, dammit.

The Pick…Stanford. Oh, my sweet Stanford.

The game without a name is back. Don’t believe me?

You must not have have heard, Washington is 3-4.

It’s time to rally the heroes of yesteryear. Someone call Steve Emtman. Send Don James a text. Twitter Napoleon Kaufman and Facebook Billy Joe Hobert. The legends of Montlake must know…the Huskies are back!

Scoff at 3-4 all you want, this is the new era of purple reign where moral victories get equal billing to bowl game triumphs. They almost beat LSU!

Epic home wins make a season. They beat USC!

Three wins indicates a resurgence. They can beat Oregon!

There’s only one problem with this comeback tour. On Saturday, one team is significantly better than the other and it ain’t the ones wearing the emasculating color.

We’re being told it’s a rivalry game in which anything can happen and that’s true. It’s been said that Washington is a much different team at home. Also factual. Some have noted this version of Husky football plays hard and always has a chance to win. It’s no lie.

FOTB's on fire. Two in a row.

The only problem I’m ultimately having with embracing this inevitable upset is the simple, tiny, irrelevant fact that Oregon’s football team is a lot better than Washington’s.

Watch the first half of the season and call me a liar. The Huskies are at the bottom of the conference in most offensive and defensive categories. They don’t defend the run well and Oregon just so happens to be really good at that. There’s no better crowd killer than a dominant running game.

The Huskies are fairly one dimensional on offense and against a good defense like Oregon’s, that’s not going to get it done. The Ducks have made a killing in games where they shut down the opposing running game and teed off on the quarterback.

Don’t get me wrong, here. This is going to be a close game. If LSU, USC and Arizona struggled at Husky Stadium, there’s no reason to suspect the Ducks will have it easy. Jake Locker has become a legitimate threat and if there’s a quarterback that can survive an anemic running game, he’s it. You also can’t discredit the desire the Huskies play with. Any team that competes as hard as they do is going to have a chance to win.

But none of it’s enough, not when the Ducks are this much better. On Saturday, a rivalry will be reborn, but Oregon’s dominance will continue.