Almost forgot this week’s picks amidst a sickness that has taken hold and forced me into a semi-comatose state of  being where all I can do is lay still and watch football. Well, that, and the only game left that matters is on Thursday, so what’s the point?

And no mom, it’s not H1N1, so settle down. But, Chip, don’t think I’m not still winning the day.

Last Week: 3-1
Season: 49-19

Arizona @ Arizona State
I’m not sure what these two teams traditionally call their rivalry game but this year, let’s just go with the “Downer Derby.” ASU lost any hope of avoiding a losing season and still having bowl eligibility a week ago. Arizona rushed the field to celebrate their run for the roses,  but forgot all NCAA sanctioned games last 60 minutes before ending. Now, they trudge their depressed football corpses onto the field to salvage the next best thing – whatever that may be.

The Pick…Arizona

Washington State @ Washington
While it would be hilarious to watch the Cougars win the Crapple Cup again, I can’t see how this could happen. Even Washington should beat these guys by 20. And they probably will.

The Pick…Washington

UCLA @ USC
Ooh, the intrigue. Could the dynasty in L.A. officially be over as procalimed by the UCLA marketing department at the start of Rick Neuheisel’s tenure? I doubt it. In fact, I think people are making too much of the end of this dynasty. It’s still the same coach with the same caliber of players. Perhaps the Pac-10 has caught up, but that doesn’t mean USC won’t be right there again in 2010. As for the present day, I think it’ll be close, but the home field edge gives the game to the Trojans.

The Pick…USC

Notre Dame  @ Stanford
Call me a Pac-10 homer, but after seeing mark Ingram against Auburn, the nation’s best running back will be on display tonight against Notre Dame. Jim Harbaugh’s the kind of coach who will try and pad his guy’s numbers and I’ll bet we see Toby Gerhart surge to the front of the Heisman pack against the Irish’s porous defense.

The Pick…Stanford

Once again, the blog is getting economical. You’d think the time saving would have resulted in better prognosticating, but alas, I suffered my worst week of the season. That’s okay, like Oregon in the desert, Saturday is all about redemption (well, that and playing for a Rose Bowl).

Last Week: 2-3
Season: 46-18

Arizona State @ UCLA
Hey, I was just kidding about that Wazzu pick last week. No wait, I was just trying to rally the Cougs to their only win of the Pac-10 season. No, that’s not it either. Did I really just pick Washington State because I thought they could win? Wow, that was dumb.

This week, I’m a Bruin believer. Both teams are pretty mediocre so it stands to reason the home team should win, right? A UCLA win would give the Pac-10 its seventh bowl eligible team.

The Pick…UCLA

Oregon State @ Washington State
Sorry Cougars, that was my one and only try with you guys. This week, your battle is simply to hold the Beavers under 50. Unlike some Oregon State players, I root for my rival in situations like this. What could be better than a Civil War for the Rose Bowl on national TV?

The Pick…Oregon State

California @ Stanford
Okay, so I thought Cal was cooked. I was certain Arizona would beat the Bears. Now, I’m just as sure that Stanford will win this game by at least two touchdowns. And I’d say more if not for the rivalry aspect. The Cardinal are just killing teams right now. They still don’t have much on defense, but who cares when you’re rolling up 50 every weekend?

The Pick…Stanford

FOTB Pick

Oregon @ Arizona
The Ducks would be 10-0 if this blog had been right every week. Once again, I’m putting some spectacular homerism on display. This game is not going to be easy. The Wildcats are tough at home and something about road games in Tuscon just scare the crap out of me. Maybe it’s that whole quarterback injury thing. I can’t handle another result like the one in 2007. It would end me. Please, Oregon, for the sake of my will to live, win this game.

The Pick…Oregon

Bonus Pick: Lee Corso Head Gear
That’s right, I’m guessing what another person will guess. Corso has donned the Duck head every time the College GameDay show has come to Eugene. Will he brush off his love of the Oregon mascot and succumb to the temptation of picking this GameDay virgin? Corso may have already shot his wad (hey! he said it, okay?) in Eugene but he’s got another one in him. It’s more Duck headgear for the Sunshine Scooter.

The Pick…Corso wears Donald and the UO immediately files an injuction against ESPN for using…oh wait, Disney owns them, it’s okay.

The race for the Rose Bowl is simpler in some ways, more complicated in others. For Oregon, it’s more clear than ever that winning out is the only realistic way to get the conference bid to Pasadena. In that sense, it’s simple. Just root for Oregon and all is well. Of course, a loss opens up a lot of ties and that’s where it gets messy. It might help if you brush up on your Rose Bowl Selection Procedures.

Teams Remaining in the Rose Bowl Hunt.

Note: USC got left in the race for the fact they can still win a six-way tie. It would be perfectly typical to see USC pull this one out.

Edit: Just found this link which does a superb job of breaking down the Rose Bowl race for all remaining Pac-10 contenders. Check that out if you have even more time to spare.

So Many Scenarios…

The lesson to be learned for the second straight week is that Oregon needs to win out. There is only one somewhat realistic scenario remaining that allows the Ducks to lose another game. In that scenario, Oregon still finishes alone in first. There is actually only one scenario I can find where Oregon ties for first and still gets the Rose Bowl bid. It involves OSU losing to WSU.

Note: No, WSU is not going to beat OSU this weekend and you can remove about half the scenarios on this chart as a result.

Note x2: These scenarios all involve Oregon and are not the end of the discussion. If Oregon loses out, a number of other combinations not involving the Ducks will play out.

Note x3: Arizona, despite the loss, still controls its own destiny.

The Week Ahead and Who to Root For

This isn’t hard. Pour yourself a beverage, root for the contenders to lose, pull for Oregon to win and everything will be oh so lovely.

The blog is making budget cuts this week and streamlining its efforts into one, efficient post.  Call it a corporate reorganization. As such, the normal Oregon-centric preview post has been downsized into the Pac-10 Picks to create more synergy.

After a 3-2 effort last week, the deliverables weren’t good enough. It was clear the blog was spread too thin and needed to make its efforts more dynamic. Without a doubt, the user experience has been enhanced with this innovative move into a result-driven realignment.

Last Week: 3-2
Season: 44-15

Stanford @ USC
Some will have you believe that the Trojans are cracking and the dynasty is about to come crashing down. Such reports are premature. The Trojans finish the season with three straight at the Dump. Huh? It’s called the Memorial Coliseum? I thought they played at a dump. I’ll be damned. I mean, give them credit, they’ve won 46 of 47 there, but I really thought it was a dump (yep, still bitter about 2006).

The Pick…USC

Washington @ Oregon State
The Civil War looms. The Beavers have only to get through a tour of the college football wasteland that is the state of Washington to bring possible Rose Bowl hopes into the game. The Beavers win – and you can scribble the W in pen right now – will make it 12 in a row for the state of Oregon against the “preeminent” program of the Northwest.

The Pick…Oregon State

UCLA @ Washington State
This is the dumbest pick I’ve made all year. I mean, who picks Washington State for anything? This is such a bad team. But this is also a rallying cry for the Cougars to nail down a Pac-10 win. The game day high in Pullman is going to be 34. UCLA needs this win for bowl eligibility so maybe they fight through it, but I feel like picking an upset and where better to do it than in the Pac-10’s most irrelevant game of the year?

The Pick…Washington State

Arizona @ California
Hopeful Duck fans aside, I don’t think Cal can stay any closer than two touchdowns. One team is surging with confidence after years of bad football. The other just can’t seem to get things to go their way this season. And I don’t mind Arizona winning. In fact, I kind of hope they do. it would set up a huge showdown between ranked teams and it’s just more fun that way. Besides, if Oregon wants the Rose Bowl, it needs to win their games and not rely on complicated tiebreaking scenarios (not that this blog doesn’t enjoy wasting time on such things).

FOTB Pick

The Pick…Arizona

Arizona State @ Oregon
Oregon gets their third straight freshman quarterback. It seems safe to say that Brock Osweiler won’t be as dangerous as Andrew Luck given ASU’s offensive ineptitude this year. And as for the Sun Devils “stout” run defense, the last time a team surrendering fewer than 90 yards per game on the ground came to Autzen, they got burned for almost 400. Given that it’s an entirely different team and scenario, that might seem like a meaningless line, but it would count as expert analysis if my name was Jon Wilner.

The Pick…Oregon

Basketball Bonus Pick: Winston-Salem State @ Oregon
The official “Save Ernie Kent’s Job” tour begins with non-conference creampuff number 1.

The Pick…Oregon

As convoluted as the Pac-10 race may seem, it’s actually pretty simple. Arizona and Oregon control their own destiny. The rest do not. Of course, if those two teams add a loss, then it gets interesting. On to the rankings.

1. Oregon (7-2, 5-1)
I ain’t worried. Seriously, I’m not worried. Oregon’s body of work is still too good to justify anyone else at the top. With two of three at home and its closest competitor still having a game at USC, the Ducks remain in a great position.

2. Arizona (6-2, 4-1)
I’m taking the same approach I used with Oregon and USC before. The Wildcats have to beat Oregon to earn the top spot. From what I’ve seen this year, the Ducks are still the top team in the Pac-10 regardless of what happened in Palo Alto. It’s shaping up to be a huge game in the desert between the Pac-10’s leaders.

3. Oregon State (6-3, 4-2)
If OSU and Stanford both win out and Arizona loses to at least Oregon and USC, Oregon State is Rose Bowl bound. Didn’t see that one coming and it’s more plausible than I realized. And by “more plausible,” I mean its likelihood is slightly above “no chance in hell.” With only the Washington schools left before the Civil War, we can pretty much bank on the Beavers entering the game at 6-2.

4. Stanford-(6-3, 5-2)
They did a great job against Oregon, but I’m not convinced they have staying power. Their style of play matched up really well with a depleted and undersized Oregon defense. USC has the size and power to handle Stanford and with the game in L.A. this week, I’m betting on the Trojans.

5. USC (7-2, 4-2)
I don’t like the way they’re playing. However, at home, this team is pretty much unbeatable. Stanford won’t have their way with USC the way they did with Oregon and we should see the Trojans move up quickly.

6. California (6-3, 3-3)
The Jahvid Best touchdown play was about as crazy a thing as you will see in football. It’s unbelievable all he got was a concussion. Head injuries are a serious deal, but in this case, it’s a good thing compared to what could have been. Aside from that, the Bears just aren’t as good as we all thought this season. Jeff Tedford is establishing quite the trend of underachieving teams.

7. Arizona State (4-5, 2-4)
They shouldn’t have played USC that close, right? Sure, they have a good defense, but the offense is pretty anemic. They should provide a good bounce back opponent for the Ducks this week.

8. UCLA (4-5, 1-5)
Congratulations Bruins! You snapped a five game losing streak and ensured a strong likelihood of the Huskies continuing their run of losing seasons that pleases Duck fans to no end.

9. Washington (3-6, 2-4)
The Huskies are back alright. Well, back in the standings where they’ve been for the last few years, at least. Washington is now firmly en route to yet another losing season.

10.Washington State (1-8, 0-6)
Arizona did what everyone does and dismantled a very bad team. How do the Cougars recover from this mess?

Thanks to a suggestion from NautiDuck in a comment yesterday, I’m starting an occasional feature to keep track of who to root for every week. Currently, there are two things in play for Oregon: the Rose Bowl and the National Title game. Both take place in Pasadena.

With regards to the Rose Bowl race, we can safely ignore mathematically eliminated UCLA and Washington State. Both teams are currently at 0-5 in conference play and just waiting to play each other to figure out once and for all who is worse.

Let’s also remove Washington and Arizona State, two teams that could technically finish ahead of Oregon but only if the Ducks’ quarterback somehow became injured for the season leading to a slew of losses. It’s just such an unlikely scenario. Oh wait….

That leaves us with the teams below. There is actually a significant amount of work left for Oregon given that it hasn’t played three of these teams.

At 5-0 and as the only undefeated team, Oregon is the ruler of its destiny. As such, the take on who to root for this week is all about the national title picture. Sure, we could all pull for teams like USC and UA to lose, but it puts a ceiling on Oregon’s season that we don’t yet need. Perhaps after this weekend, I’ll get more into tie-breaker scenarios. It’s just too convoluted for that right now.

In chasing faint hopes of a national title game appearance, there’s very little guesswork in what to cheer for. There are only two games here that are open to interpretation.

Sometimes, blogs get hangovers too, so if it seems the place is a bit dead, just know it’s refocusing and getting back up for another round.

Hopefully, so too will the Oregon Ducks football team.

Eugene was some kind of utopia on Saturday and given how early many got started with ESPN’s College GameDay, there was very little of the day that went unused. For the blog, it started with an early morning flight and ended late at a place that would make ESPN’s Neil Everett proud (Rennie’s of course). For all, it was one hell of a day.

But this isn’t so much about the party as it is about how we move on.

All the excitement and hype of the day and the week preceding may have manifested itself into three and a half hours of perfection that vaulted Oregon into a Rose Bowl driver seat, but it’s all for not if the Ducks don’t forget everything they just did. They’ll need to put forth the same preparation and the same effort for a Stanford team that defends its home turf like a rabid animal.

In year’s past, this was a legitimate concern. Oregon played hangover games all the time and left you feeling frustrated by a group so capable and yet so easily distracted.

Now, not so much. Chip Kelly’s stringent policy that the most important game you’ll ever play is this week seems to really work. It’s fun to mock because it’s so silly to fans and media, but it has a genuine purpose that his team has bought hook, line and sinker.

There was no hangover from Boise State, just a win the following week. After beating Cal in an emotional, “we’re back” statement game, they went right back to business and dismantled a Washington State Cougar team in a way no one else has done all year.

I can almost guarantee Stanford has their full attention, LeGarrette Blount’s status notwithstanding. The Cardinal is a team that has only one loss at home in the last two seasons and is still somewhat in the race for the conference crown.

Lose to Stanford and Oregon opens the door back up for a litany of teams to challenge for the top spot. Win and it’s virtually shut to all but Arizona.

No doubt, a big game looms this weekend, one the Ducks can ill afford to lose. If eight games has been any indication, the Ducks know this more than anyone.

I’ve been waiting all year to use the word “perfect.” After calling my shot a week ago, it finally happened. 5-0. Judging by this week’s slate, another perfect week is a distinct possibility.

California @ Arizona State
I kind of believe in Cal. The way they got drilled by Oregon and USC makes you wonder a little bit, but there’s no reason they should lose to Arizona State, even if it’s on the road.

The Pick…California

UCLA @ Oregon State
The Beavers looked good against USC and Sean Canfield was especially impressive. They could win out from here setting up a Civil War showdown. Wouldn’t it be something if they end up with a chance to knock Oregon out of the Rose Bowl? God, I’m even getting ahead of myself in talking about the Beavers. Must. Calm. Down.

The Pick…Oregon State

Washington State @ Notre Dame (in San Antonio)
Okay, this is the week, Washington State. We’re all rooting for you. There’s no way you have it in you, but dammit, we’re still going to root for it!

The Pick…Notre Dame

USC @ Oregon
Must. Calm. Down.

The Pick…Oregon

Some clarity is found in the top three this week, though I think Arizona could easily fall off in time. As I’ve said before, USC is staying in first until Oregon beats them. It’s my personal campaign to underrate and motivate the team. I can see them now…”Off The Pond thinks were no good! Let’s prove that guy wrong!” Yep, I’m doing my job.

1. USC (6-1, 3-1)
There are some definite vulnerabilities in this team. USC could be in for a rude treatment in Eugene, but I doubt the Trojans will yield its 7-year reign without a serious fight.

2. Oregon (6-1, 4-0)
As a fan, I’m starting to reach 2007 levels of confidence. Very afraid of what happens from here.

3. Arizona (5-2, 3-1)
Five turnovers against UCLA is cause for concern. I’m still not convinced this is the third best team in the Pac-10, but they already beat two of the three candidates for that spot.

4. Oregon State (4-3, 2-2)
It’s more of a hunch than anything the record is showing. They already beat Stanford and Cal needs to beat somebody good before we can pronounce them all the way back.

5. Stanford (5-3, 4-2)
Great at home, bad on the road. It’s just the way it is with Stanford. Unfortunately for Oregon, the Cardinal have the advantage of both a bye and its home field when the Ducks come to Palo Alto in two weeks.

6. California (5-3, 2-2)
They’re on the way back. Sorta’. It’s hard to tell against UCLA and Washington State. There is still a lot of room to move in the standings and we may very well find out Cal is the third best team in this conference by the end of the year. Or not. I don’t really know.

7. Arizona State (4-3, 2-2)
An enigma from one week to the next, but they mostly look like a team destined to miss out on a bowl for the second straight year. If it’s any consolation, they could be the best of what looks like an obvious bottom four.

8. Washington (3-5, 2-3)
It’s looking like an end to the consecutive losing seasons will have to wait another year. Games still remain against Cal and Oregon State and I can’t see them winning either.

9. UCLA (3-4, 0-4)
It’s looking messy in Pasadena. The offense is really, really terrible and they tried three quarterbacks against Arizona State. Washington State might be thinking they have a shot at winning a Pac-10 game.

10.Washington State (1-6, 0-5)
The moral victory parade continues as yet again, the Cougars lose to an opponent by less than they did a year ago.

I’m barely getting by here, but you have to understand, it’s the coaching. I can’t take the blame for Jim Harbaugh messing up a game his team mostly dominated. And there’s no way I’m letting Steve Sarkisian and Nick Holt off the hook for that stunt they pulled down in the desert. Nope, 2-2 wasn’t my fault and as such, I find my picks completely passable. This week, coaches be damned, I’m going 5-0.

Oregon @ Washington
The Huskies have been competitive but that doesn’t make them good. Oregon, unfortunately, gets Washington on the road where they have been significantly better. Still, I’d be surprised if the Huskies have enough to win this game. Crowds and passion are great, but in the end, one team’s better than the other and in this case, it’s Oregon by a mile.

The Pick…Oregon with a Jeremiah Masoli caveat. If he doesn’t play, I reserve the right to have this pick annulled.

Washington State @ California
In a league where any team could lose to eight other squads, everyone loves a date with Washington State. Cal’s rehabilitation will look even brighter after Saturday.

The Pick…California with absolutely no caveats whatsoever.

UCLA @ Arizona
Could it be? Are the Mike Stoops-led Wildcats for real? We’ve been promised this for years and I’ll be damned if Arizona doesn’t actually have something brewing finally. This one should be a breeze as UCLA is reeling.

The Pick…Arizona

Oregon State @ USC
Growing up in a Beaver household, I had an atypical upbringing for a Duck fan. I actually find it cool to see OSU in the spotlight like this against USC. Sure, they’ve been winning for 10 years now, but they’ve come a loooooooong way. Still, I have ulterior motives here, so mom, dad, you’ll have to excuse me while I root for the Trojans.

The Pick…USC, but not in a blowout. I don’t think the Trojans really have it in them this year to demolish teams like they have in the past.

Arizona State @ Stanford
I still love you Stanford!! I feel like a jilted lover that can’t let go at this point. We had some good times and I have no idea how it all fell apart. You can still do this guys. You’re back at home where you don’t lose and it’s just Arizona State. Take care of business, dammit.

The Pick…Stanford. Oh, my sweet Stanford.