The race for the Rose Bowl is simpler in some ways, more complicated in others. For Oregon, it’s more clear than ever that winning out is the only realistic way to get the conference bid to Pasadena. In that sense, it’s simple. Just root for Oregon and all is well. Of course, a loss opens up a lot of ties and that’s where it gets messy. It might help if you brush up on your Rose Bowl Selection Procedures.

Teams Remaining in the Rose Bowl Hunt.

Note: USC got left in the race for the fact they can still win a six-way tie. It would be perfectly typical to see USC pull this one out.

Edit: Just found this link which does a superb job of breaking down the Rose Bowl race for all remaining Pac-10 contenders. Check that out if you have even more time to spare.

So Many Scenarios…

The lesson to be learned for the second straight week is that Oregon needs to win out. There is only one somewhat realistic scenario remaining that allows the Ducks to lose another game. In that scenario, Oregon still finishes alone in first. There is actually only one scenario I can find where Oregon ties for first and still gets the Rose Bowl bid. It involves OSU losing to WSU.

Note: No, WSU is not going to beat OSU this weekend and you can remove about half the scenarios on this chart as a result.

Note x2: These scenarios all involve Oregon and are not the end of the discussion. If Oregon loses out, a number of other combinations not involving the Ducks will play out.

Note x3: Arizona, despite the loss, still controls its own destiny.

The Week Ahead and Who to Root For

This isn’t hard. Pour yourself a beverage, root for the contenders to lose, pull for Oregon to win and everything will be oh so lovely.

This week’s “Who to Root For” gets a lot trickier, but at least we don’t have to follow that pesky national scene anymore. Who wanted that, anyway? Certainly not this ever-optimistic, pie-in-the-sky blog.

The Ducks ceiling is now the Rose Bowl and they remain in great position even after losing to Stanford. I’m going to warn you right now, though. The best thing you can do is stop reading and just root for Oregon to win three more games. But if not…well, good luck interpreting what remains below. It might help if you brush up on your Rose Bowl Selection Procedures.

Teams Remaining in the Rose Bowl Hunt.

Note: Some other teams remain mathematically alive, but it’s being assumed no team with three league losses will win the conference.

Now, Let’s Really Waste Some Time…

There are endless scenarios that could play out. Below is a chart of possible outcomes that explore Oregon’s Rose Bowl chances if they finish in a three-way tie for first. The assumption is made that all contenders will beat non-contenders on their schedule. In other words, a team like Cal is assumed to lose to both Arizona and Stanford. In this case, Oregon has virtually zero chance of winning any tiebreakers because of their loss to Stanford. The Ducks best hope of getting to the Rose Bowl is to win out. Their next best chance is to have Stanford lose to USC and Cal. This would put Stanford lower in the standings and the they’d be less likely to figure into a complicated three-way tiebreaking scenario (see link for Rose Bowl Selection Procedures).

If you have a life and/or don’t want a headache, you can skip reading below and I’ll deliver the bottom line in less than 15 words: Oregon does not want a three-way tie. They need to win out.

Note: I did not explore any two-way tiebreaking scenarios. The problem with those (involving Oregon) is that they are unlikely to happen without significant upsets.
Note x2: These scenarios all involve Oregon and are not the end of the discussion. If Oregon loses two more games, the door opens in a lot of other directions as well.
Note x3: Moral of the story with three-way tiebreakers? Lose to Washington. That’s the reason Arizona and USC are most likely to win these scenarios.
Note x4: Arizona is the only other team to control its own destiny.

The Week Ahead and Who to Root For

For the most part, you’re safe to root for contending teams to lose. However, in some cases, it may help Oregon’s tiebreaking chances for certain contending teams to win. It’s confusing. Really confusing, actually. Like I said above, the best thing you can do is stop reading, turn on your TV Saturday and root for Oregon. It’s much simpler.

Thanks to a suggestion from NautiDuck in a comment yesterday, I’m starting an occasional feature to keep track of who to root for every week. Currently, there are two things in play for Oregon: the Rose Bowl and the National Title game. Both take place in Pasadena.

With regards to the Rose Bowl race, we can safely ignore mathematically eliminated UCLA and Washington State. Both teams are currently at 0-5 in conference play and just waiting to play each other to figure out once and for all who is worse.

Let’s also remove Washington and Arizona State, two teams that could technically finish ahead of Oregon but only if the Ducks’ quarterback somehow became injured for the season leading to a slew of losses. It’s just such an unlikely scenario. Oh wait….

That leaves us with the teams below. There is actually a significant amount of work left for Oregon given that it hasn’t played three of these teams.

At 5-0 and as the only undefeated team, Oregon is the ruler of its destiny. As such, the take on who to root for this week is all about the national title picture. Sure, we could all pull for teams like USC and UA to lose, but it puts a ceiling on Oregon’s season that we don’t yet need. Perhaps after this weekend, I’ll get more into tie-breaker scenarios. It’s just too convoluted for that right now.

In chasing faint hopes of a national title game appearance, there’s very little guesswork in what to cheer for. There are only two games here that are open to interpretation.