Conveying an Unhealthy Obsession to the Masses
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Saying Goodbye to Our Dear Old Friend

Posted By: Nick, Off The Pond under Basketball @ 11:12 am | March 6, 2010 

NOTE: I should mention that this isn’t the end of basketball at Mac Court, only of Pac-10 games. The non-conference slate is still being played in the fall/winter of 2010 at Mac Court before making the move to the new building. But my experiences with Mac Court have always been about the Pac-10 and a few remaining games against directional schools is of little interest. With that said, on with the nostalgia.

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For 72 years, Mac Court existed and I could care less. But then I went to a game and a torrid four year affair began.

McArthur Court will get its final farewell today and while my four years wasn’t much in the grand scheme of its existence, it was enough for me to know that this building is special and will always have a prominent place in Oregon Duck history.

It’s 1998, I’m a high school senior and it’s my first time

I’m taking an early January road trip to Eugene to see my future school take on the UCLA Bruins, led by Baron Davis, and I’m awoken to a special building. Time may have burdened its aesthetic and functional appeal, but passionate, adoring fans continue to pump life inside its walls.

I’m in the 300 section, far above the action sitting on a wooden bench. There is a group of rowdy students below and the game is intense. The crowd injects energy throughout the building and I’m either happy to know when the place collapses I’m on top or frightened of the extra distance I’m going to fall.

Davis hits a jumper for UCLA at the buzzer to give UCLA a two point win,  but the losing is overshadowed by the intoxication of this raucous environment in a rickety old gym that shakes with every footstep of 9,087 people. I’m hooked.

It’s 2000 and I’m sitting beneath Mac Court in a dark room

I’ve been to enough games sitting in the student section as a freshman now to know that this building has an aura that you cannot ignore. I have yet to witness what it’s really capable of, but I can sense it. Deep in the bowels of Mac, I sit with 10-20 others and listen to athletic department officials talk about forming an organized group to support the basketball team. We’ll call it the Pit Crew.

It’s Thursday, January 27, 2000 and an oompa loompa is having problems with his free throw.

The Pit Crew at its finest.

The Pit Crew at its finest.

Yes, Brandon Granville*, the basket is shaking and yes, you still have to make your free throw. You can point and complain to the ref. They can make an announcement to calm everyone down, they can even award you an extra free throw, but you simply can’t change a building’s character. That’s just how the game  is played here at Mac Court.

*couldn’t verify this was Brandon Granville taking the free throw but that’s my memory and I’m sticking to it!

It’s Thursday, March 2, 2000 and I’ve witnessed the greatest finish ever

Only in a building like this can a team be down four points with what, four, maybe five seconds left on the clock and still hope (expect?) to win. Arizona State lets Oregon’s Ben Lindquist heave a length of the court pass to Alex Scales who easily drills a three point jumper to cut the lead to one.

There’s maybe 1 or 2 seconds left now, Ducks down 1. ASU struggles to inbound the ball and overthrows the intended target. No one touches the ball as it goes out of bounds, the clock never starts and Oregon gets possession under its own basket. This time, the Sun Devils play some defense and force an imperfect pass beyond half court that sails past one ASU player and into the hands of Darius Wright who has just enough time to turn and launch a 30 foot prayer.

And it’s answered. Swish.

Ducks win and pandemonium ensues. Its the loudest noise I’ve ever heard and we’re deliriously running on the court. I can only imagine what those that left early are thinking as they hear the cheers that slip through the cracks of The Pit’s aging walls.

It’s two days later and the madness won’t stop

Oregon gets down by 17 to the nation’s number three team, Arizona. With around 12 minutes to go, Oregon goes on a tear and the building stirs to life. Ducks win by five and it’s time to rush the court.

Again.

What a weekend.

It’s Thursday, Feb. 22, 2001 and the cheers are for me

UCLA is always a big deal and this time around, Sports Illustrated’s Grant Wahl is in town to cover the game. He comes by our front row seats and a friend of mine tells him I’m an aspiring journalist (though that ship had sailed) that needs an internship. Wahl laughs it off and that’s that.

Fast forward to an early timeout and I stand behind the three point line with a basketball, ready to shoot. I float a nervous airball (maybe two) but hit the required 5 threes – on just 7 shots! – well before the timer runs out. I turn and “sshh” the UCLA bench (as if they care). At least once in these four short years, the crowds cheers are intended solely for me.

At halftime, Wahl comes back and says SI could use some three-point shooters and hands me his contact info. My friend, roommate and Pit Crew prez extraordinaire, Nate Jolly, wins the halftime bingo contest.

Mac Court is powerful in ways you don’t even know.

It’s late 2001 and the Pit Crew doesn’t have t-shirts for the 01-02 season

Yikes, I'd like a redo, but it's an original.

Yikes, I'd like a redo, but it's an original.

Nike isn’t going to help out with our Pit Crew shirts this year and we’re running out of time. Nate and I, armed only with a computer lab running Adobe Illustrator, slave away to create something out of thin air. Graphic design artists, we are not, but the Pit Crew logo for at least the next four years is born.

Present-day me cringes at the sight of it now, but everyone starts somewhere.

Our logo is now on hundreds of shirts worn to every game. We’ve given something back to the building that feels like home.

It’s Saturday, Feb. 23, 2002 and a senior is having his moment

It’s the last game and Oregon is on the verge of an undefeated record within the cozy confines of McArthur Court. Freddie Jones, who I was lucky enough to watch and root for in high school as well, is possessed by some sort of Mac Court demon and unleashes hell on the Huskies. If I didn’t have stats to prove otherwise, I’d swear he had 53 points in the first 10 minutes of the game.

He’s draining threes and throwing down posterizing dunks while showing more emotion than ever before in his career. Clearly, on this, his last game ever at Mac Court, he knows it’s a special moment and understands what it means to play in this building for this crowd with this uniform.

It’s Saturday, March 1, 2003 and we bid thee farewell, Coach Lavin

We’ve organized a party thrown by the Pit Crew for Steve Lavin. We’re calling it the “Farewell Lavin Tour” as everyone knows he’s as good as fired at season’s end. Lavin loves it, waves to the crowd and gives us a wink. Even a dead man walking for the opposition knows how special Mac Court is.

It’s the same day and Lavin isn’t the only one saying goodbye

Before Mac Court really stirs to life, the Pit Crew is in place

Before Mac Court really stirs to life, the Pit Crew is in place

Following Oregon’s 31 point victory, I look up in the rafters where I watched my first game and know this is it. No more of my usual front row seat. No more early entry into the building and getting to watch Mac Court transform from gentle to enraged. No more banging on the doors insisting we be let in, no more interacting with Fox Sports announcers and having the ear of opposing players.

There will be no more pounding on the walls leading to the Ducks dressing room as they ready themselves to take the court, nor will there be another day of jumping up and down screaming at the top of our lungs.

My time with Mac Court is over. It’s someone else’s turn…that is, until it’s gone forever.

It’s Saturday, March 6, 2010 and someone has to turn the lights off

Mac, it’s been fun. Change is inevitable and it’s for the good, but you’ve been a special building. My memories are but a four year blip on a long, illustrious history that has spanned the Tall Firs, Webfoots, Kamikaze Kids and numerous other forgotten eras. Thanks for the good times you’ve given to Duck fans of all ages. You will be missed.

And now, we turn to basketball

Posted By: Nick, Off The Pond under Basketball @ 11:43 pm | January 1, 2008 

I’m feeling a little better about life with Oregon’s  Sun Bowl victory, but for now, all my attention is squarely on the Pac-10 basketball season which begins this week. With the non-conference action over, here’s how the season will play out. Keep in mind, this is 100% accurate so don’t question me. 

*Non-conference SOS comes from kenpom.com. 
**Non-conference record listed in parentheses.
1. UCLA (12-1). What USC has become in football, UCLA is becoming in basketball. All the two respective programs require is the right coach. They both have their guy and are simply dominating the competition. Must be nice to cherry-pick talent. Will the Bruins break through for a national title this year? Well, they don’t have to worry about Florida so it’s a clear path.  
2. Washington State (12-0). I don’t believe in this team. I really don’t, but I can’t ignore actual results. They finished 2nd in the conference a year ago, had a great preseason and have everything back from a year ago. Still, I get the feeling Oregon will sweep them yet again.
3. Oregon (9-3). Despite recent troubles, I feel relatively calm about this team. There’s a lot of experience back and they will overcome this bad stretch. I’ll take Oregon’s mix of talent and experience over the remaining teams. If I can just remember to stay calm until tournament time, I could have a relatively stress-free couple of months. History tells me I’m incapable of such a feat.
4. Arizona (9-3). The Wildcats have underperformed in recent years, but you have to admit, they are battle-tested. Their schedule to date ranks as the toughest in the country. 
5. USC (9-3). Borrowing from a previous theme, USC basketball and UCLA football have their own similarities. Both programs play beside their legendary rival, but still have all the benefits of being a big-time school in LA. Neither can ever permanently overcome the shadow they play in, but can be a lot better than many teams. USC fits this to a tee this year.
6. Stanford (11-1). The record is glossy, but not all wins and losses are created equal when you look at a team’s schedule. They took the easy road to 11-1. The Cardinal just haven’t shown they can reach the next level with Trent Johnson as coach and I don’t think this year will be any different. Now if Oregon can just get a stinkin’ win in Palo Alto. 
7. Washington (9-4). Could have gone with Cal or ASU, but I think the Huskies are a safer pick. They played the second toughest preseason schedule of any other Pac-10 team and seem like a team that could sneak up on the league. That will be all for positive comments about Husky athletics in 2008.
8. Cal (9-2). I have them eighth and that proves just how tough this conference has become. The Bears are not a bad team. It’s hard to rank any of the top nine teams this low, but someone has to occupy this space and given that they lost to two teams Oregon beat – Utah and Kansas State – I think it’s reasonable to put Cal this low.
9. ASU (10-2). Similar to Cal, they are better than any other ninth place team you will find. They are a young, talented team. In this league, you have to prove you can compete night in and night out and to this point, we just don’t know if they can. 
10. Oregon State (6-6). Teams 1-9 can compete against each other and get a win on any given night. Unfortunately, I don’t know what to say about the Beavers that has a positive slant. They lost to some horrendous teams and boast just a 6-6 record despite playing the 7th easiest schedule in the country (that’s out of 341 teams!). The Jay John era should come to a ugly end very, very soon.

Oregon losing was bad, but this is worse

Posted By: Nick, Off The Pond under Basketball @ 8:52 pm | March 29, 2007 

That headline is what I like to call a tease. You wanna’ know what could possibly be worse than Oregon losing in the Elite Eight, don’t ya? Well, I’m not ready to talk about it yet, so let’s go over these 2006-07 Oregon Ducks final tournament games first.

Sweet Sixteen
What a fantastic Friday! The bar was packed with over 100 Duck fans including Mr. Matt Graffe and company as well as Jesse’s parents. We had a sunset-over-the-ocean view on the boardwalk, downed some beers, ate some pizza and watched my favorite little player just…go…off. Every Tajuan Porter three-point attempt was greeted by a bar full of cheers. Sure, the ending was a bit nerve-wracking, but who cares? Elite Eight, baby!

Oh, crap, not the Elite Eight again
I don’t think I had been this hyped for a game since the 2002 Fiesta Bowl. It’d been a long time since Oregon athletics had got this far on the national stage. In 2002, when Oregon played Kansas in the Elite Eight, the pregame felt more like making funeral preparations. You went over the pictures and the memories, but knew the actual game was going to make you cry.

Not this year, though. Not with these Ducks. I was (and still am) convinced that Oregon could play with any team in the nation and was every bit as worthy of a national title as any other team. Sure, Florida was a formidable opponent, but the Ducks just had a swagger all year that said, “can’t beat us.” They fought admirably and were just a couple TP threes away from winning the game. They were also a few horrible calls away, too. You know, calls that can only be explained by conspiracy theories. Call that carry zero justification. Calls that should get referees and their bosses fired. Yeah, those kind of calls. Not that I’m a whiny, bitter fan or anything.

Aside from some tough calls and a cold Tajuan Porter, I thought the biggest thing that went wrong for Oregon was the inability to convert buckets at the right time. They would get the second half lead down to 4, 5, 6 points and get the ball with a chance to make it a one-score game. They never could convert on those possessions and a winning outcome always stayed just out of reach.

Looking Beyond
There’s no shame in the result of the final game or the season, but it’s time to build some continuity. There’s no reason for this program to miss the tournament more than 1 out of every 4 years. There’s a ton of momentum going right now and with 4 of 5 starters hopefully returning next year as well as a promising Joevan Catron developing off the bench, you have to think the expectations should be high in 2007-08. Put together back-to-back years on the national stage and the ball’s rolling downhill. Money will pour into the program. The arena will get built. Recruits will be back knocking on the door.

Now here’s the part that gets a little dicey. Ernie Kent. He’s a somewhat polarizing figure, but after all that’s gone on, I think it would be a huge mistake to let him go. This team has finally bought in and they are on the verge of something bigger. If he was going to leave, it should have been after the previous season. That was a chance to start fresh and go in another direction. Now, the program actually has a direction and if it moves off course, it could be like starting all over again.

Wait, isn’t there something else I’m supposed to mention?
Oh yeah, so I mentioned something worse than Oregon losing. Maybe you read all the above, maybe you didn’t, but here goes:

Jesse (the one I refer to as girlfriend, which would make her a female, thus ensuring that she cannot possibly appreciate what she has been given) is going….

….to

….the

….Playboy Mansion

The FREAKING PLAYBOY MANSION!!! Guess who’s not invited?

Sweet Sixteen grab bag

Posted By: Nick, Off The Pond under Basketball @ 10:04 pm | March 20, 2007 

Still two days from the start of the Sweet Sixteen, here’s 16 things (in no particular order) on my basketball-loving mind:

16) I found these “One Shining Moment” montages at Bob Rickert’s Ducks Blog on oregonlive.com who in turn found it at the AOL Sports Blog so I’m not breaking into new territory here, but if just one more person gets to watch these videos, it’ll have been worth it.

15) Another big thumbs down to CBS. Perhaps it was the Pac-10s fault for being so good and creating scheduling problems, but couldn’t USC and Oregon have played at opposite times on Friday? Now, USC-North Carolina will be shown to about 95% of the country while Oregon-UNLV may or may not exist within the universe. And you wonder why no one is paying attention to the Ducks.

14) No Gus Johnson. The Sports Guy did a good job of defending the honor of the best play-by-play guy college basketball has. Unfortunately, CBS has put James Brown into his spot, assuring us of a slightly more boring experience. I’m going to miss the excitement of Gus Johnson.

13) Ohio State and Tennessee. Of non Pac-10 games, I find this one the most compelling. Did Ohio State just complete it’s own Tyus Edney moment, or are they on the way down? In 1995, UCLA was a #1 seed playing a second round game just as Ohio State was last Saturday. Both teams made improbable escapes. Now, the Buckeyes face a Tennessee team that seems a little underappreciated but fully capable of beating just about anyone.

12) How ugly will UCLA-Pitt be? Neither team conjures up images of high-flying fun. First one to 50 wins.

11) Conferences. The Pac-10 has three representatives. So does the SEC. ACC? Big-10? One each. The emotion to describe the poor representation of ESPN’s favorite conferences is happiness.

10) The mid-major path to victory. Oregon is the only team left in the tournament that can actually win the national title without ever playing a major conference team.

9) My four favorite players still playing (Pac-10 not included).

  1. Acie Law IV, Texas A&M – He’s got the name and the game.
  2. Derrick Byars, Vanderbilt – I have an affinity for unknowns. SEC player of the year is a game-changer.
  3. Greg Oden, Ohio State – You just don’t get to watch a player like this in college anymore.
  4. The guy I don’t know about yet, but will when he plays insanely over his head and carries his team to victory. I love that guy.

8) The remaining mid-majors. UNLV, Southern Illinois, Butler, or Memphis? Who’s got the most staying power? Uh, no clue.

7) It’s official. Joakim Noah is the ugliest – and most annoying – player to ever suit up in NCAA basketball history. I welcome your submissions, but this is pretty much indisputable.

6) Why is everyone so shocked that Texas went down? Sometimes, I think the media gets its collective head so far up the most powerful athletic department’s rears that it can’t see teams for what they really are. The Longhorns were never that good. They relied on spectacular performances from one player more than any other team. They weren’t built to last. Let’s move on.

5) Here’s a link that made me really happy and it all relates to Oregon. Not only are the Ducks “reseeded” lower than UNLV, but the first line states: “Can anyone outside the Pac-10 and the Pacific Northwest name me two Ducks starters? One?” Are the media purposely handing Oregon bulletin board material? It seems like it.

4) Then again, how many remaining teams can you name two players for (credit for full names only)? I can do this for seven teams. On seven other teams, I can name one player. For Butler and Southern Illinois, I’m clueless.

3) YouTube is just good fun. Go there. Search for old games. You won’t be disappointed.

2) Florida or Butler? Be honest. As a Duck fan, who would you rather play in the Elite Eight? Playing Butler feels infinitely easier, but I’m choosing Florida. I just want to take a shot.

1) UNLV. I’ve pretty much written off this week of my life. I don’t really care if anything cool happens. No, I’m not living for the moment, I’m living for Friday. That makes me two things: (1) pathetic and (2) a sports fan

Are-uh-gon? They’re still in this thing?

Posted By: Nick, Off The Pond under Basketball @ 9:53 pm | March 19, 2007 

Hey Ducks fans! Feeling underappreciated? A little unloved? Perhaps a little overlooked? Yeah, I got that feeling, too.

The Ducks have returned to the Sweet Sixteen for the second time in the program’s history. They’ve only been apart of March Madness five times in the 22 years of the 64 team format. They’ve got a total of 5 wins now. If that’s not an underdog story, I’m not sure what is. But don’t tell the media, they don’t even know Oregon’s still alive.

Excited to read some fun, respectful articles in the national media following the “upset” (just ask any prognosticator) of Winthrop, I’ve struck out. Found plenty of press on UNLV, but can’t seem to locate the Ducks.

Don’t despair, though, my fair-feathered friends, our Quackers are getting attention. Why, just look at ESPN. It says there that Florida has the easiest path to the Sweet Sixteen. In that same article, six of seven “experts” list Oregon as a possible upset victim.

Digger Phelps is already on record as believing UNLV will win. An ESPN SportsNation poll shows that all 50 states (et tu, Oregon?) believe Oregon to be the most likely upset victim.

In perhaps the worst analysis I’ve ever read, this (reporter?) lists Oregon as the 15th best team remaining. UNLV is ranked 5th and that team the Ducks dismantled to win the Pac-10 tournament only one week ago? He’s got USC 2nd.

Basically, all I’m saying Oregon is that you stink. You don’t belong. Nobody wants you here so just lose already! (Now take that giant chip ingrained deep into your shoulder and prove everyone wrong).

NEXT: I’ll give you a litany of reasons why I think UNLV is already done.

Wow, that was a lot of basketball

Posted By: Nick, Off The Pond under Basketball @ 5:09 pm | March 18, 2007 

Four days of basketball (a lot of it) has come and gone. I think I’ve finally broken in the new couch. From 64 teams, only 16 remain. Next week, the tournament gets serious. No more Cinderella stories, just a select few fighting for a title. Here’s a look back at the first weekend:

CBS Coverage
I can’t speak too highly of CBS coverage so far. Here’s one shining example of a job poorly done:

When Oregon broke open a lead on Winthrop, the San Diego affiliate switched to Florida-Purdue. Understandable. That was a close game with about five minutes left. Following the conclusion of that game, they moved to Wisconsin-UNLV. Okay, another close finish, I’m 1,000 miles from Oregon, I get it. My complaint is that if you are going to make games available online, make them available! I tried to use the online feed and got a message that the game was blacked out in my market. What?!? Hello, I’m 1,000 miles from Portland. If the game is considered a local-market game, then it should stay on CBS. If you’re going to switch to other games, though, and put me in the dark for most of the second half, make it available online!

Will I watch any programming CBS promoted?
No, I don’t care about watching Simon Cowell “get his.”

And the winner for “Commercial most likely to send me jumping off the cliff my apartment sits on” goes to…
…Buffalo Wild Wings! Congratulations, you’ve slow-clapped me right into submission. Hooters and Dick Vitale is a close second. I especially liked the way they shot the commercial with the same quality of a local car dealership.

Impressive Bracket
I have 14 of the final 16 still alive having only lost Washington State and Nevada.
EDIT: Just noticed I’m holding down first place

Team most happy to see gone?
Texas, in a runaway. Anyone who reads Bill Simmons has got to be excited knowing that his Kevin Durant man crush will have to continue in the NBA now. May Boston get the third pick.

Team most happy to see in the Sweet Sixteen?
Duh, UNLV. I’m going to steal (and adapt) a line I read on educk.com (I think posted by former Pit Crew wild man, Canada) prior to the Winthrop game. If you’d told me Oregon’s trip to the Elite Eight hinged on beating Miami (OH), Winthrop and UNLV, I would have punched you in the face.

Team least excited to still have around?
Double duh, Florida. If Oregon does make it to the Elite Eight and Florida is still alive, that will be one scary matchup going against the defending national champion. That, and I think I hate Joakim Noah. I know, hate’s a strong word for someone you don’t even know, but I’m pretty sure I hate him.

A little quack chat
Miami (OH) was a tough matchup for the Ducks. It was very similar to games against Arizona State in which you knew Oregon would win, but it never got comfortable enough to relax. In the end, a good win and nice to get challenged and pull it off.

Moving to Winthrop, I thought Oregon showed good activity defensively. They got in the passing lanes, pressured shooters on the perimeter and did a great job of hassling big man Craig Bradshaw down low. The rebounding wasn’t as great as you’d like. There were too many instances where Winthrop forced a tough shot late into its possession only to get an offensive rebound. The Ducks also need to commit themselves to playing their game for 40 minutes. For the few minutes I saw of the second half, they did a much better job of dictating tempo and getting into the open where they are most dangerous.

A lot of people say Oregon lives and dies by the three, but I strongly disagree. I think they actually live and die by their own activity. When they push the ball, drive and dish and make their cuts, they get great looks. An open three is an easy shot for any of the five starters. When they get lackadaisical, the shots are more easily contested leading to lower percentages and the perception that they’re living and dying on the three ball.

All in all, a nice win today, especially considering all the talking heads on CBS and ESPN picked Winthrop. My dad’s theory is that the execs gave the order to hype Winthrop to generate ratings. There’s probably some truth to that, but it doesn’t make it any less annoying.

With the victory, Oregon moves on to face UNLV. Here’s one potential national title scenario that still exists:

  • Def. Miami (OH) (1st round)
  • Def. Winthrop (2nd round)
  • Def. UNLV (Sweet Sixteen)
  • Def. Butler (Elite Eight)
  • Def. Southern Illinois (Final Four)
  • Def. Memphis (Championship)

Um, no need to rush to the sportsbooks, though.

A new appreciation for the high seeds and a look at Winthrop

Posted By: Nick, Off The Pond under Basketball @ 10:14 pm | March 16, 2007 

Before today, I rooted for the little guy in the NCAA tournament. I pulled hard for those 13, 14, 15, 16 seeds. Everyone loves Cinderella. Who didn’t cheer for #15 Hampton to beat #2 Iowa State or #15 Santa Clara take down #2 Arizona. Who didn’t want to see Bryce Drew’s last second three to propel #13 Valparaiso over #4 Ole Miss?

Really, who doesn’t want to see David slay Goliath? You know what? I don’t.

Not after today. Not after feeling the pain of the slayed giant. You see, in my enthusiastic excitement for the impossible upset, I forgot how much it hurts for the favorite. These underdogs come in expecting to lose. Most don’t have enough firepower to make it any further than the second round. The favorites, though, have high expectations. Elite Eights, Final Fours, Championships.

A first round loss is devastating. Sure, Oregon didn’t lose, but that didn’t stop me from feeling the crushing pain as Miami (OH) pulled within one point late against the Ducks. A couple of Aaron Brooks free throws and one great final defensive stop saved me from the ultimate heartache and now I can only say sorry, David. I’m over you. Now give me your rock and go home.

As luck would have it, though, Oregon’s right back in the Cinderella story on Sunday, playing America’s newly beloved, Winthrop. This year’s George Mason. ESPN’s sweetheart. Champion of the little guy’s cause.

In case you were wondering, yeah, this game’s going to be a battle. The Eagles start three seniors and two juniors. Their center, Craig Bradshaw, goes 6-10 and can knock down the three. They employ three point assassins on the perimeter in 6-3 guard Michael Jenkins, 42.6% from beyond the arc, and Torrell Martin, the Big South preseason player of the year who scored 25 and 31 in narrow road losses to North Carolina and Wisconsin. And did I mention they’ve won 19 in a row?

Say what you will about this team’s schedule – Old Dominion is the only tournament team they defeated prior to the win over Notre Dame – but once you’ve won a tournament game, you’ve proven yourself a legit threat.

Oregon needs to bring it’s intensity last seen in Los Angeles at the Pac-10 tournament. Aaron Brooks needs to know he is the fastest player on the court and a matchup nightmare for any team. Maarty Leunen needs to remember holding 7′-0″ Roy Hibbert to 4 points in a road win over Georgetown. Malik Hairston and Bryce Taylor need to attack and get to the rim. The tempo must be controlled by Oregon, start to finish. Frenetic activity on the defensive end is a must.

And if all doesn’t go well, Oregon, just win anyway. Ok?

2007 PreNicktor unveiled

Posted By: Nick, Off The Pond under Basketball @ 11:38 pm | March 13, 2007 

For the third straight year, I am using my not-so-good mathematical model to predict the NCAA tournament results. This year’s version was only tweaked in a few minor spots and is comprised of the following:

  • Season Stats (compilation of numerous stats)
  • Season Results (various winning percentages in certain situations)
  • Ratings (derived from SOS and RPI)
  • Upset Factor (score added to lower seed based on that seeds success against specific higher seed)

These four scores are arrived at through flawed mathematical practices and pretty poor attention to detail. For someone who employs actual rocket science and is on top of his game, visit www.bracketscience.com.

For those of you who just want some calculus flunkie to deliver a mathematical prediction (also known in corny fashion as a “prenicktion”) that was totally made up with only minor reasoning, well, here I am.

Still, though I do mock myself, this system has proven successful. Let’s look at past results and how many correct picks were made by round:

2005
Sweet Sixteen: 10
Elite Eight: 6
Final Four: 4
Final Two: 2
Champion: 0

2006
Sweet Sixteen: 10
Elite Eight: 4
Final Four: 1
Final Two: 0
Champion: 0

2006 was rough for a lot of people as the final four included a #11 seed, but no #1s. Even so, 2007 could be considered the rubber match to see which year was a true indicator of the predictive capabilities.

Unfortunately (or fortunately), I’m at odds with this year’s bracket in some key areas. It’s predicted a solid final four of Wisconsin, Kansas, North Carolina, and Ohio State with the Jayhawks defeating the Buckeyes in the final. You could make an argument for three of those teams, though I don’t like Wisconsin at all.

What really irks me, though, is that my beloved Ducks have been ousted in the second round at the hands of Winthrop (come on!). Furthermore, the model hates the Pac-10 as no teams advance past the sweet sixteen (actually, I’ve found this to be true in a lot of statistical models done by people a lot smarter than me).

The final four is heavy on 1 seeds as near upsets were avoided in the elite eight. Thee #12 seeds advanced past the first round with two of those making the sweet sixteen. No seed higher than 3 made the elite eight.

The closest matchup was in the first round as Illinois edged Virginia Tech by 1/1,000th of a point.

As for regional comparisons, the Midwest was the runaway winner as the toughest region with the average score easily exceeding the other three. The South was second, followed by the West. The lowest scoring region – by far – was the East.

The full computer and personal brackets are available below (click the brackets for the enlarged view):

PreNicktor
Personal

Giving it up for Ernie Kent and Oregon

Posted By: Nick, Off The Pond under Basketball @ 11:28 am | March 11, 2007 

The last four years have been rough on Duck coaches, players, fans and anyone else attached to the program. There have been some really ugly moments yet the team stood tall and found vindication in three days of the greatest stretch of basketball I’ve ever witnessed from an Oregon team.

Last year, I was certain Ernie had run out of chances and I thought he should have been let go. This year, during a bad stretch that saw the Ducks go 2-6, I saw what looked all too familiar and panicked. Oregon had just hired a new AD who just so happened to be really good friends with Gonzaga coach Mark Few and it seemed logical to think this could be it.

I just want to say for the record that I was wrong about Ernie and these players and I couldn’t be happier for what they accomplished this year. I don’t know if it was bad coaching, immature players or unreasonable expectations, but this group has arrived. It doesn’t always happen right away for everyone. Some of them had thoughts of leaving, but to their credit stuck it out and are reaping rewards for their hard work.

Today, Oregon will be a 3 seed with two games in Spokane. They are on a roll right now unlike any I can ever remember. This team is extremely capable or reaching the elite eight and I won’t rule out anything beyond that either. But no need to dissect for now. I’ll wait until after the brackets are unveiled. Until then, let’s just revel in our domination.

Great stories following the Pac-10 tournament and everything else you need to know
Oregonian game story
Oregonian on Oregon’s redemption
Andy Katz on Ernie Kent and Oregon’s turn around
Sports Illustrated on Oregon’s dominance and a few other notes
My personal favorite: San Diego UT columnist on the front page of my morning sports section
Oregonian beat writer blog on rumors of Kent’s demise
Perspective from the other side: LA Times article
ESPN Bracketology
Highlight video from CBSSportsline

Check out the Eugene Register Guard, too. They always have great content (my post is prior to noon, when its stories go online).

This is an NCAA basketball only zone
As of today, I’m making the next three weeks a basketball-only blog (screw Bill Simmons and his basketball-only efforts. He knows as much about college basketball as I do about modeling). I’ll be focusing on Oregon basketball as well as other interesting things about the NCAA tournament. And of course, the third annual Madness PreNicktor will be unveiled.

Now sing with me….It’s the most…wonderful tiiiiiime oooooofff the year!

Let the countdown begin

Posted By: Nick, Off The Pond under Basketball @ 12:02 pm | February 11, 2007 

This post is brought to you by a therapy session at the “Center for Positive Thinking About Sports Even Though They Suck.”

We are but one month away from Selection Sunday. It’s the premier sporting event of the year. 65 teams, 64 losers and, yet still, so many winners. Stake your life on it, there will be upsets to remember, defeats that will live in infamy. Stars will come to the stage looking to build a legacy. Unknowns will arrive to make a household name, if only for one shining moment. We will witness improbable buzzer beaters that will raise some to heights of unknown joy, bring others to melancholic states of sadness. Sure, there will be the little engines that couldn’t (but sure tried) and the behemoths that unapologetically stomp and turn their foot on the helpless. But the Cinderellas will carry the show, winning over the hearts of all who watch. On George Mason and Gonazaga, on Valporaiso and Vermont! Who will take the underdog torch of those before and raid the castle-in-the-air of the biggest dreamers?

Yes, for every up, there is a down, for every soaring joy, there is a plummeting sadness and for every fortified legacy, there will surely be one that is broken, but it’s the difficult times that lead to renewed hope and spawn stories of redemption but one short year later.

There are six rounds in all. Having a date at the Dance is truly an accomplishment, but doing something Sweet so much tastier. To be Elite is to know you belong, to Finalize your plans a fantasy come true. But to unleash a simple pair of scissors on an unexpecting net is the ultimate desire, an aspiration only one can ever pull from the fire.

It’s coming. It’s only one month away and 336 is soon to be 65. For some, it’s crunch time, one last chance to find solid footing away from the fragile bubble. For others, it’s the final month of a long wait and time to fine tune the well-oiled machine. Sure, some are playing for next year but don’t yet despair; the conference tournament could still be won. Ah, the conference tournament, that temptuous siren offering one last chance at salvation for some, that only chance at glory for others. Butler, Winthrop and a pack of Salukis have packed their glass slipper. Goliath, are you listening? Florida, North Carolina and UCLA are bringing their banners. David, are you quivering? It’s almost time. Just one month to go. Who is coming, who is staying, who will leave all others behind?

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